Laissez Faire Institute	February 2004	
Issue Brief

Light Rail Fails Safety Test

Highlights
o	Light rail has a higher fatality rate than any other form of transit.
o	Light rail has a higher fatality rate than automobiles.
o	Light rail has a higher crime rate than any other form of public transit.

Fatality Rates
	In all of the debates over the merits of light rail transit the one issue that has not gotten much attention is that of safety. Travel exposes one to a risk of accidental death or injury. The relative risk of differing modes of travel is a legitimate concern for travelers and transportation policy makers.
	Travel as a passenger on public transportation is safer than travel by private cars. The fatality risk for a person traveling in a car is almost 100 times higher than that for a person traveling in a bus (American Public Transportation Association’s Public Transportation Fact Book). Passengers traveling in rail transit vehicles probably face a similarly low risk.
	However, the on-board risk is not the only safety issue of concern. Pedestrians face risks prior to boarding transit vehicles. Further, rail transit vehicles operating on rights-of-way that intersect streets—as is the plan for the Phoenix region’s new light rail system—may collide with persons, vehicles, or objects that come into the path of the transit trains.
	As it turns out, light rail has severe safety deficiencies when compared to other modes of urban travel. The aggregate fatality rate for auto travel is around 15 persons per billion vehicle miles of travel. However, this includes rural travel, where the fatality rate per billion vehicle miles is 23. The nationwide fatality rate per billion vehicle miles of urban travel is 11. Thus, we find that light rail’s 14 fatalities per billion passenger miles of travel rate is actually higher than the rate for privately operated automobiles. [These figures are calculated from data appearing in the following sources: Public Transportation Fact Book (American Public Transportation Association), Highway Statistics (Federal Highway Administration).]
So, when we compare the fatality rates for urban travel by the various modes we discover that light rail has a worse safety record than automobiles. Consequently, the notion that luring some automobile users to switch to light rail travel will improve safety is not supported by the crash data. 

Urban Travel Fatality Rates by Mode 1991-2001 Averages	
	Bus	Commuter Rail	Heavy Rail	Light Rail	Urban Auto	
Fatalities/Billion Vehicle Miles	55	391	133	359	11	
Fatalities/Billion Person-Miles	6	12	6	14	10	
Sources: Public Transportation Fact Book (American Public Transportation Association), Highway Statistics (Federal Highway Administration).	

	Those auto drivers who support tax-subsidized light rail on the assumption that their lives will be made better when others leave their cars to ride the rails may want to reconsider their position. Light rail’s fatality rate of 359 per billion vehicle miles of travel makes light rail trains extraordinarily dangerous to be near. A decision to replace bus transit with light rail transit is very likely a decision that will increase the hazards of travel in the urban region.

Crime Rates
	A second safety issue concerns crime rates. Light rail proponents have repeatedly emphasized the potential for light rail stations to attract real estate development. This may well be true, but it is not an unmixed blessing. Light rail also appears to attract an unusually high number of criminals. Compared to other transit modes, light rail has the worst crime rate. Light rail’s violent crimes against persons rate of 284 per billion passenger miles of travel is three times higher than the rate for bus transit. Light rail’s crimes against property rate of 779 per billion passenger miles of travel is five times higher than the rate for bus transit. A decision to replace bus transit with light rail transit is very likely a decision that will bring more crime to the area.  

Conclusion
	Those running municipal transit systems might want to reconsider whether they really want to replace safer bus transit with more dangerous light rail. It may be easy for light rail proponents to shrug off light rail’s poor performance characteristics that lead to its being the most costly form of mass transit in terms of the cost per person-mile of travel. After all, it’s only money. 
It should not be so easy to shrug off the increased risk of traffic fatalities and crime that light rail will bring to the community. Apprised of the higher risks posed by light rail, city officials cannot later plead ignorance in order to evade responsibility for the decisions they make today. Voters should carefully consider the safety issue as they cast their ballots on the MAG Plan.

2001 Public Transit Serious Crime Statistics	
	Murder/Rape/ Robbery/Assault	Larceny/Theft/ Burglary/Arson	Combined	
	Total	Rate*	Total	Rate*	Total	Rate*	
Bus	2,114	97	3,171	144	5,285	240	
Commuter Rail	260	27	2,508	263	2,768	290	
Demand Response	13	15	13	15	26	30	
Heavy Rail	2,765	195	9,084	641	11,849	836	
Light Rail	408	284	1,120	779	1,528	1,063	
*per billion passenger miles
Source: 2003 Public Transportation Fact Book (American Public Transportation Association), Tables 6 & 45.	

This document was published by the Laissez Faire Institute, 828 N. Poplar Court, Chandler, Arizona 85226; (480) 940-9824; e-mail jsemmens@cox.net. Permission to reprint this document, or any part thereof, is hereby granted. See http://www.notaxfortracks.com and http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/article.php/399.html for more information.