Another Rail Cost Overrun

Metro Transit has raised the projected cost of the Twin Cities’ Southwest light-rail line to $2.86 billion, or $197 million per mile for the 14.5 mile line. The news stories say this is up from $2.0 billion, but the original projected cost was $1.25 billion for 15.8 miles or less than $80 million a mile (which is still outrageous for an inflexible, low-capacity system).

Light-rail trains pass through a half-empty downtown Minneapolis. Photo by Andrew Ciscel.

Considering that downtown Minneapolis is ranked as having the third-slowest recovery of the nation’s 56 largest urban areas, and Twin Cities light rail carried only 52 percent of pre-pandemic riders in November, this would be a good time for the region to scrap the project. As I’ve suggested before, it would cost a lot less to turn it into a rapid bus route than to complete the rail project. Continue reading

Transit Carried 74.9% of 2019 Riders in November

America’s transit systems carried nearly 75 percent as many riders in November 2023 as the same month in 2019, according to data released on Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is the most riders transit has attracted, as a share of pre-pandemic levels, since the pandemic began in March 2020.

Transit’s failure to carry even three-fourths of its pre-pandemic passengers stands in contrast to Amtrak, which carried 3.1 percent more passenger-miles in November 2023 than 2019, and the airlines, which carried 4.3 percent more riders in November than in 2019. Release of airline passenger-mile data tends to be more than a month later than passenger numbers, but in September domestic air routes carried 6.0 percent more passenger-miles than the same month in 2019. November highway data are not yet available but an update will be posted here when they are. Continue reading

BRT “Faster and Cheaper” Than Rail

The World Bank is promoting bus-rapid transit as “green” and “sustainable transportation” that is “faster and cheaper to build than Metros,” meaning heavy rail. When operated with all-electric buses, says the agency, BRT will “cut life-threatening air pollutants” as well as greenhouse gas emissions.

A bus-rapid transit station in Dakar, Senegal. Photo courtesy of CETUD.

The World Bank is absolutely correct about the faster and cheaper part. However, it is overpromising when it comes to taking cars off the road. “Developing country cities that have not yet fully developed their land use and transportation infrastructure around cars can leapfrog car-centered culture and prioritize efficient, low-carbon urban transport that focuses on people rather than vehicles,” says a World Bank official. This is pure rhetoric that consigns developing cities to economic stagnation. Continue reading

Curbsides: The Salvation of Intercity Buses

In order to better compete with Megabus and Flixbus, Greyhound (which is owned by Flixbus) is selling or moving out of many of its downtown bus stations and loading and unloading passengers at curbsides. This is being derided as “taking mobility away from low-income people” and that moving stations from downtowns to suburban locations was a major hardship for passengers. But the alternative would probably be worse.

A modern Greyhound bus near Toronto. Photo by Secondarywaltz.

In 2007, FirstGroup, a British transit company, bought Greyhound for $2.8 billion plus $800 million in assumed debt for a total of $3.6 billion. Admittedly, this price included Laidlaw school buses, but Greyhound — the largest bus company in America — was the plum. Greyhound lost so much money over the next 14 years that, in 2021, FirstGroup sold Greyhound to Flix for a mere $172 million. This didn’t include the school buses or the real estate under many Greyhound bus stations, but FirstGroup remained responsible for $320 million in pension and other liabilities. Clearly, FirstGroup lost a lot of money on Greyhound. Continue reading

Silicon Valley Transit Plan

The Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) and its predecessors serving San Jose and Silicon Valley have spent more than $7 billion (in today’s dollars) on rail transit. Yet it carried fewer bus and rail riders in 2019 than buses alone carried in 1986, before San Jose’s first light-rail line opened.

Lines show only origins and approximate destinations, not exact routes. Click image for a larger view.

This failure can be blamed on the usual suspects: rail transit is designed to take lots of people to a central hub, but less than 4 percent of Silicon Valley jobs are in downtown San Jose. In such an urban area, rail transit just because an expensive bus that doesn’t serve many people but does take money from potentially better bus service in the rest of the region. Continue reading

October Driving 99.2% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

Americans drove more than 99 percent as many miles in October of 2023 as they did in the same month in 2019, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration. Miles of driving have been hovering around 100 percent of pre-pandemic levels since March of 2021.

Transit and airline performances in October were reviewed on December 7 and Amtrak’s on December 11.

Although driving has recovered, the places and times people drive have changed. Rural driving is 2 percent ahead of 2019 numbers while urban driving is 2 percent behind. Within both rural and urban areas, driving is greater on interstate freeways than on other arterials and greater on other arterials than on other roads and streets. Continue reading

Turning Colorado into Greenwich Village

The state of Colorado will celebrate its 150th birthday in 2026, and to celebrate the state’s Democratic governor, Jared Polis, has proposed what he thinks is a “visionary” land-use and transportation plan. In fact, it is just a tired old rehash of recent urban planning fads that are based on obsolete views of how people want to live.

Click image to download a 9.2-MB PDF of this 34-page report.

The plan is partly a repackaging of a bill the governor promoted in the last session of the state legislature that would have given cities housing targets and required them to build more multifamily housing to meet those targets. The bill was defeated thanks to strong opposition from city governments that didn’t want the state to preempt their zoning powers, but that didn’t sway Polis. Continue reading

Infrastructure Guidelines

With President Biden handing out $6 billion for California high-speed rail projects and $2.2 billion more for other passenger-rail projects, it seems important to review some basic guidelines for infrastructure spending. Nobel-prize-winning economist Elinor Ostrom, whose work focused on incentives and institutions, once offered the following evaluation criteria:

Elinor Ostrom. Photo by Holger Motzkau.

  • Efficiency: How well are inputs translated into outputs?
  • Fiscal equivalence – Do those who benefit from a system pay at a level
    commensurate with their benefit?
  • Redistribution – Does the system take from the rich and give to the poor or from rich areas to poor areas or rich groups to poor groups?
  • Accountability – Do decisions reflect the desires of final users and other stakeholders?
  • Adaptability – Can infrastructure providers respond to ever-changing
    Environments?

Continue reading

Why More Pedestrians Are Dying at Night

Just a few days after the excellent New York Times article about the Bogotá rapid buses, the Times published a data-heavy article about increasing pedestrian fatalities and that fact that most of them take place at night. While the article makes several important points, it also misses two key points that leads it to make some wrong conclusions.

Seeing through the data. Photo by emre0614.

A 2019 Antiplanner policy brief made many of the points found in the Times article: Pedestrian fatalities are up, most of the increase is at night and has taken place on arterial streets, and distractions from cell phone usage may be a part of the problem. All of this information can be dredged out of federal accident databases. Almost two years ago, I noted that Portland and San Jose had released data indicating that a high percentage of fatalities were homeless, which was also mentioned by the Times. Continue reading

The Rise and Fall of Bogotá’s Rapid Buses

The New York Times reviewed (non-paywall version) the ground-breaking bus-rapid transit system in Bogotá Columbia 23 years after it opened. The TransMilenio bus system first opened in December 2000 under fiscally conservative mayor Enrique Peñalosa and each route-mile is capable of moving more people per hour than New York City subways.

A high-capacity TransMilenio bus. Photo by Felipe Restrepo Acosta.

The system almost immediately doubled transit ridership, partly because the rapid buses were much faster than the buses they replaced but also because Bogota has a lot of low-income people who don’t own cars whose mobility was greatly enhanced by faster transit. Columbia had well under 200 motor vehicles per thousand people in 2000 (compared with more than 800 in the U.S.) and even today Columbia has fewer than 300 vehicles per thousand (compared with more than 900 in the U.S.). Whatever the reason, the rapid bus system carries up to 2 million riders a day, which is more than some U.S. light-rail lines carry in a year. Continue reading