Not Learning from History

Last week, the Washington Post commemorated the 30th anniversary of a horrific Air Florida plane crash with an article about how that crash has led to huge improvements in airline safety. In response to that crash, airlines have improved deicing formulas and have strict rules about how quickly aircraft must take off after being deiced, and pilots have improved their responses to slow ascents.

The end of the article briefly mentions that, just a half hour after the plane crash, Washington’s MetroRail suffered its first fatal accident when a train of flimsy railcars “slammed into a concrete pillar near the Smithsonian station.” Unfortunately, neither this crash, nor a similar but nonfatal 2004 crash, nor the fatal 2009 crash, led Washington’s transit agency to reinforce the vehicles that were so easily subject to telescoping and collapsing. At best, the agency learned to require that new rail cars be better built.
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The lesson for commuters is, if you ride the Washington Metro, avoid the cars whose four-digit number starts with a 1. The lesson for policy makers is that a competitive environment is more likely to produce safety improvements than a subsidized monopoly.

Not Build It?

The cost of one of Denver’s FasTracks lines has gotten so high that RTD, the transit agency, is actually considering not building it. The press kindly reports the cost of the Longmont-to-Denver “Northwest” commuter-rail line as rising from $895 million to more than $1.7 billion, but that ignores the actual initial cost projections.

As the Antiplanner has previously noted, the original cost was projected to be just $211 million. As of last month, that had increased to $1.4 billion. Now it’s above $1.7 billion.
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Rather than not build it, RTD would like to ask voters to increase the sales tax to fund this and the other lines that it had previously promised would be built without cost overruns. But it realizes that voters are not likely to support such a measure. So it is now considering throwing some new highways into the pot, hoping voters will support that. It might be surprised to find that at least some voters oppose subsidies to highways as much as they oppose subsidies to rail transit.

2010 Transit Data Update

The Antiplanner has reposted the consolidated spreadsheet for the 2010 National Transit Database. The revision of a file I posted last month fixes an error in the calculation of the total number of seats and standing room provided by each transit agency and mode of travel.

More important, the revised file includes some calculations, including BTUs and CO2 emissions per passenger mile, seats and standing room per vehicle, the average number of passengers per vehicle (passenger miles divided by vehicle revenue miles), and operating subsidies per trip and passenger mile. Many more calculations can be made using this spreadsheet and you are welcome to download it and do them.

The Federal Transit Administration added a new kind of transit this year: demand-taxis (id code DT). This is a demand-responsive system that uses private taxis in place of the wheelchair-accessible buses used by many transit agencies. This actually saves money as the average demand-responsive bus costs taxpayers about $30 a ride while the average taxi costs about $17 a ride.

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Are Corporations People?

One of the Occupy Wall Street slogans was “corporations are not people.” But what does this mean? People have a variety of rights, including the right to sign (and be obligated by) contracts, the right to free speech, and the right to vote. When the Supreme Court decided that corporations are persons (as it did in 1819), the court meant that corporations have some of these rights (such as the right to sign contracts), but not others (such as the right to vote, which is reserved to “citizens,” not “people”).

When Mitt Romney said, “Corporations are people, my friend,” he didn’t mean it in a legal sense but in the sense that corporations are made up of people and corporate profits eventually end up in the hands of at least some of those people.

The question is: where do we draw the line? If we deny corporations the right to contract, then corporations could not exist, as the whole point of corporations is for investors and managers to contract with one another. While some may think eliminating corporations is a good idea, without corporations most goods would be a lot more expensive and it is likely that wealth would be even more concentrated in the hands of a few because only those with wealth would be able to invest in productive activities that could return large profits.

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A Lesson for California

Buyers of bonds for the Las Vegas monorail are suing Citibank for fraud. The buyers claim Citibank misled them by not revealing a report by faithful Antiplanner ally Wendell Cox questioning the ridership and cost projections made for the project. The lawsuit charges that Citibank knew that Cox’s report was “much more reliable” but concealed it from potential bond buyers.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority has made similarly rosy projections of rail ridership that it hopes to use to attract private investors. This is the reason for man to be sexually happy. prescription viagra prices This medicine is highly efficacious thus should be taken sildenafil online without prescription strictly as prescribed by a certified health professional. Do you know how detection is done for nephropathy? Detection of kidney diseases due to generic viagra discount unclean sex life, such as “ladies, sexually transmitted diseases, malignant tumors, kidney or liver dysfunctions and cardiovascular issues make administration of this product impossible. So, it is very much effective and completely secure for the human body. cheap cialis soft Those projections have also been criticized in a report co-authored by Cox. In the unlikely event that the authority does manage to attract some private investors in its rail project, it had better make Cox’s report available to them or it is liable to find itself subject to a similar lawsuit.

The Three Republican Parties

The Iowa caucuses highlighted a little-known fact about the Republican Party: it is really a coalition of three different groups. First and best-known are the “conservatives,” represented by Rick Santorum and the 25 percent of Iowa caucuses who voted for him. Conservatives tend to be fiscally conservative, but are more reliably socially conservative, meaning they tend to oppose such things as gay rights, abortion, and recreational drugs.

The second group is the libertarians, represented by Ron Paul and the 21 percent of the caucuses who voted for him (although Gary Johnson, who was ignored by the media and the party, is closer to being a true libertarian). Perhaps even more than conservatives, the libertarians are hard-core fiscal conservatives. But they are social liberals, favoring gay rights, legalization of recreational drugs, and (for the most part) legalized abortions.

The difference between conservatives and libertarians was brought out in the late 1960s, when David Nolan created the Nolan chart, defining political beliefs along two axes instead of the traditional “liberal-conservative” axis. Nolan’s chart pointed out that the fact that someone was fiscally conservative or liberal did not necessarily predict whether they would be socially conservative or liberal.

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One More Nail in the Coffin

The California high-speed rail funding plan is “not financially feasible” says a peer-review committee created by the state legislature to review that plan. Various media reports suggest that this finding significantly reduces the likelihood that the legislature will approve the plan.

This is after the rail authority admitted that it inflated job estimates, claiming that the line would create a million jobs when in fact it meant a million job-years. No more than 60,000 jobs would be created by construction at one time, which is still a lot but a lot less than a million. This admission cost the authority the editorial support of the San Jose Mercury News, a paper normally eager to support any wacky rail plan that comes its way.

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Another Year, Another Set of Transit Lies

“For the average American driver, the time wasted in traffic jams has more than doubled in 30 years,” reports Eleanor Randolph in the New York Times. “The best way of easing that gridlock — not to mention saving gas, curbing pollution and finally finishing that novel — is public transit.”

Two simple sentences; two complicated lies. Has the time wasted in traffic jams more than doubled? Congestion has increased, says the Texas Transportation Institute. But the Census Bureau reports that average commute times are not much different today than they were 30 years ago. In fact, between 2000 and 2006, average commute times actually declined.

Is transit the best way of saving people time? Hardly; transit is far slower than driving, even in traffic, a conclusion that can be drawn partly from the fact that New York City, which has the highest rate of transit commuting, also has the longest commute times of any major city in the nation.

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Urban Renewal Dead in California

California cities do not have a constitutionally given right to steal money from schools and other tax districts to use for their crony capitalism and social engineering, says the California Supreme Court when it rejected a law suit brought by urban redevelopment agencies against a state law abolishing them. As a result, barring new legislation reinstating the practice, tax-increment financing (TIF) comes to an end in California, the state that pioneered the tax tool and, as recently as 2011, did more TIF than all the other states put together.

It is conceivable that, somewhere, sometime, a TIF project was truly worthwhile. In general, however, TIF was mainly a way for cities to build empires, elected officials to engage in crony capitalism, and urban planners to practice social engineering. Almost all of those “transit-oriented developments” that were supposedly stimulated by light rail and streetcars were really simulated by TIF. Nearly all of the cases of cities using eminent domain to take private property and give it to developers involved TIF.

Jerry Brown and Democrats in the California legislature killed TIF to free up tax dollars that should have been going for schools and other programs, not to protect property rights. But the fact that the Democrats saw through the claims that TIF is “free money” should inspire TIF critics elsewhere. In particular, in places where state money is used to help pay for schools, tax guardians can argue that abolishing TIF will help reduce that burden. Continue reading