The Antiplanner is in Lafayette, Louisiana today to talk about urban planning. I’ll be speaking tomorrow about the city & parish’s current plans and proposed new development code.
In the meantime, Bloomberg reports that Millennials want to own and drive cars about as much as their parents’ did–it was just the poor economy holding them back. Of course, they’d rather drive “cool” cars such as Teslas or Priuses rather than Cadillac Escalades. But drive they will.
In other news, Amtrak’s accounting tricks are catching up to it, as illustrated by an escalator in Penn Station that went out of order in January and hasn’t been fixed yet. In order to make it appear that its trains are more profitable than they really are, Amtrak defined “maintenance” costs as capital improvements. It then went to Congress and bragged that its operating subsidies were smaller than ever–but it needed huge capital subsidies, which Congress failed to give it.
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As the above-linked Wall Street Journal story points out, the transit industry uses the same accounting trick, which is why it had a $77 billion maintenance backlog in 2010 (and undoubtedly much more today as transit agencies haven’t spent enough on maintenance to keep the backlog from growing further).
If only Amtrak and transit agencies had a dedicated source of revenues to help them out. Oh wait, they do! It’s called fares.
Unlike highway users, who see 20 percent or more of their user fees siphoned off to subsidize the tiny percentage of people who ride transit, neither Amtrak nor transit agencies have to worry about their fares being taken away to spend on something else. They don’t even have to pay taxes on those revenues!
Yet they bitterly complain that it’s someone else’s fault when they can’t keep their own systems in working order. Instead, people should realize that this is a sign that either the agencies are wastefully inefficient or the service they provide just isn’t worth the cost–or both. While a case can be made that agency waste and inefficiency explain why most bus transit loses money, as much as I personally love passenger trains, I’m putting my money on both when it comes to passenger rail, at least everywhere outside of New York City.
Lose the broken tag on the end of the link to the Bloomberg article
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-20/millennials-embrace-cars-defying-predictions-of-sales-implosion
It’s not just the economy stopping people from buying cars; it’s also student loan debt:
“Of course, many millennials still can’t afford to buy a new car. When Evan Hudson, 26, graduated from college in 2011, he took one look at the job landscape and headed back to school, saddling him with student loans he’s now paying off.”
My student loan payment (for the master’s degree I actually got) is the equivalent of a payment for a luxury car. Or a house in a much cheaper market.
The Antiplanner wrote:
As the above-linked Wall Street Journal story points out, the transit industry uses the same accounting trick, which is why it had a $77 billion maintenance backlog in 2010 (and undoubtedly much more today as transit agencies haven’t spent enough on maintenance to keep the backlog from growing further).
Unfortunately, accounting in U.S. transit agencies is done using methods that are, well, not straightforward. Operating deficits and the relationship to what is (and what is not) considered a capital expenditure is a scandal that few people seem to care about.
It would seem to me that transit agencies should be required to include depreciation expense in the computation of operating deficits would be one way to at least inform transit agency managers, board and the taxpayers that fund same of the expense associated with wear and tear on transit vehicles and station infrastructure like that broken-down escalator at Penn Station.
To piggy back on Frank’s comment, it’s not a “poor” economy that’s keeping gen Y from buying cars, it’s an expanded one. Sure student debt and stagnant wages (despite massive gains in productivity) is a large contributor to this phenomenon, but these analyses always ignore what it takes to be a part of the digital world and economy. Owning a Mac Book pro, an iPhoone, and iPad and data/service plans/protections for your digital equipment will run you waaaaaaay more than a basic reliable used Honda. Add student loans and a shitty job, bikes and bus passes might be the only option.
“but these analyses always ignore what it takes to be a part of the digital world and economy. Owning a Mac Book pro, an iPhoone, and iPad and data/service plans/protections for your digital equipment will run you waaaaaaay more than a basic reliable used Honda.”
As an administrator for more than 300 users and 150 clients, I’ve found that MacBooks, iPhones, and iPads are certainly not the equivalent of a basic reliable used Honda. They’re more like a Mercedes: nice and shiny and desirable, but a luxury. Tablets are more for entertainment consumption than they are for productivity. At the local coffee shops, I see so many people browsing the web on a $1500 MacBook when they could browse the same web on a $150-$250 Chromebook, but a Chromebook is not a shiny status symbol that says, “Hey! I’m just like everyone else!” Same with iPhones. Soooooooo many iPhones in Seattle (and strangely enough, I barely saw one during my week in KC) when a decent Android phone costs 50-75% less AND can be used with a non-contract service that costs only $35 a month for unlimited talk, text, and 2.5 gigs of data.
So clearly I’m not an Apple user except at work because I simply can’t afford it due to student loans and a job that pays far less for a system admin than the median salary. But, hey! I’m lucky to have a job, even if it means I can barely cover interest payments on my loans!
awhr, your fixed link still had some problems besides the missing slash – this one worked for me:
http://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/04/22/no-millennials-arent-buying-more-cars-than-gen-x/
As this article states , Gen Y is buying more cars than Gen X because the size of Gen Y is much higher than X. Per capita, Gen Y is buying many fewer cars than Gen X.
A quote:
“This is where long division comes in. Let’s look at the rate of car buying on a per person basis for each of these two groups. By normalizing the data to account for the different number of people in each group, we get a much more accurate picture of the behavioral differences of individuals in each group–this is dead simple standard fare in statistical analysis. The 78 million GenYers bought about 3.7 million cars, or about 47.5 cars per 1,000 persons in the generation. Meanwhile, 45 million GenXers bought 3.3 million cars, or about 73.7 cars per 1,000. Rather than being just as likely or more likely than GenX to buy cars, the typical member GenY is actually 36 percent less likely to buy a car than the previous generation.”
This is totally weak sauce from a totally sleazy bank’s press release, but apparently “paying off student loan debt is the top concern of millennials. More than half of millennials (64%) say they financed school through student loans as compared with only 29% of boomers who financed through loans.”
So it makes sense they’re (per capita) avoiding debt to buy a new vehicle, the metric used in the JD Power press release referenced by the questionable cityobservatory.org, which should have titled its article, “Young People are Buying Fewer NEW Cars”.
Would like to see some data on the amount of aforementioned basic reliable used Hondas this generation is purchasing.
I can see why the Geaux Free TPL is so upset about the Lafayette proposed Unified Development Code:
http://geauxfreetpl.org/index.php/blog/entry/new-lafayette-development-guide-moving-forward
“Part of the comprehensive plan approved in 2014, the UDC provides developers with more choice, allows more infill or development of isolated pieces of property, and allows development of mixed-use neighborhoods like River Ranch without the need for hundreds of waivers, said Carlee Alm-Labar, Lafayette Consolidated Government chief development officer.”
So the proposal removes zoning restrictions that prevent developers from responding to market demands for housing. That sounds bad already, but it gets even worse:
“City-Parish President Joey Durel supported fees “much higher than $100” to discourage appeals of developments that followed all the rules by people trying anything to thwart development.”
The city apparently wants to charge more to file appeals to stop developers from building what they want to build! This would be a disaster – imagine if developers could build whatever they wanted without facing NIMBY appeals! You’d have developers building stack and pack housing, smug yuppies moving into them, and other terrible behavior going on, without the ability for any NIMBY with $100 to block it!
The idea of making large, long term plans based upon the current whims of a bunch of 24 years olds whims should illicit far more laughter amongst people than it seems to do.
Just to amplify prk166’s comment — How many people in public transportation are carrying kids and infants? If not many, then that tells you that people change their transportation and living preferences when they have kids — ask Captain Obvious. Because of liberal laws, you can’t even have a two seat car and carry kids under the age of 12. If you want to trade off carrying kids to school and events, you have to have a huge SUV with three rows of seats. And today you can’t even let kids walk a few blocks without the CPS nazis coming to your house.
Show me a Mellinial family that doesn’t have a car and I will show you a data outlier.
Sandy Teal is nucking futs.
Sandy Teal, why would you let your kids walk anywhere when you can drive them? You sound like a planner who wants to force children to walk, depriving them of the benefits of mobility that automobiles provide.
If anybody wants to address Sandy Teal’s comments feel free to do so. I am finding the personal attacks and purposeful misinterpretations tiresome, though.
The repeated inane and off-topic comments at the end of a thread are what’s tiresome. Weak attempts at argumentation and insipid phrases like ask Captain Obvious, liberal laws, CPS nazis and other derisive comments deserve only scorn.