It looks like 2015 will be another record year for driving in America. Of course, that’s not saying much as the total amount of driving has been pretty flat since 2007.
Transit advocates will be quick to point out that transit ridership has grown faster than driving. But actually, it depends entirely on which years you pick. Preliminary information suggests that urban driving grew faster than transit in 2014. Since 2004, transit grew faster than driving in about half the years, and overall transit ridership grew by 12 percent while miles of urban driving grew by only 6 percent.
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If you go back much before 2004, however, the view of transit is much more bleak. Since 1994, transit grew by 35 percent while urban driving grew by 39 percent. Since 1984, transit grew by 21 percent while urban driving grew by more than 100 percent. Go back to 1974, and transit grew by 55 percent while urban driving grew by 190 percent. Overall, since 1970, transit grew faster than driving in about one out of three years. Even if transit were growing faster than driving in every year, driving has such a head start that it would take transit many decades if not centuries to catch up.
The Federal Highway Administration used its release of driving data for the first half of 2015 to engage in a little lobbying for more money. The growth in driving “reaffirm[s] calls for increased investment in transportation infrastructure as demand on the nation’s highway system grows,” says the agency.
The Antiplanner disagrees. Rather than throw money at the problem, which tends to make some people rich without solving any problems, Congress should take the time to assess what works and what doesn’t work with transportation funding, and when doing so it should regard most of the claims coming from the agencies and lobbying groups with some suspicion. In the end, the country would be better off going back to a user-pays principle, even if it meant less spending on some infrastructure. If the users aren’t willing to pay for transportation, then it is probably not worth having.
“It looks like 2015 will be another record year for driving in America.”
Or maybe not. The Dow is down another 1000 points. The bubbles are bursting. The house of cards is tumbling down.
I think the Antiplanner’s graph is more informative than the narrative. There is no point in comparing the “rate of increase’ between two one-for-one matched pairs that vary by so many orders of magnitude. Who cares if transit ridership doubles and driving goes up 1% — still more people increased driving than increased using transit.
The Antiplanner wrote:
Transit advocates will be quick to point out that transit ridership has grown faster than driving. But actually, it depends entirely on which years you pick. Preliminary information suggests that urban driving grew faster than transit in 2014. Since 2004, transit grew faster than driving in about half the years, and overall transit ridership grew by 12 percent while miles of urban driving grew by only 6 percent.
When we want to talk about anything involving transit patronage, it would be nice to have one set of data (and graphics) showing the New York City metropolitan area, and another showing the rest of the United States. Or another possibility would be nationwide, then New York City and environs; then a third graph showing the nation minus New York City and nearby.
Transit use will continue to rise. Not for want, but for necessity. As we slip away from the prosperity that capitalism, self reliance/freedom and personal responsibility has brought and into the stagnation/poverty that socialism, dependency/government control and entitlements are bringing, folks will be forced to use transit. Fewer and fewer folks will be able to afford the freedom the car they dream of would bring them and be forced onto government transit as our streets are allowed to crumble and billions are spent on light rail boondoggles.
If you are twenty five now the new stagnant norm of a socialist economy is all you know. Seeing people’s businesses fail left and right along with the jobs that they created seems normal to you. It isn’t.
Around here you have surely been taught that capitalism is mean spirited and corporations and profit are evil, while government benefits and entitlements paid for by others through their taxes are your right.
The world is now at the crossroad between people’s savings and government entitlements. And yes they are linked. Without money from people’s savings from somewhere to finance capital investment it will be difficult, if not impossible, to recover from this stagnate socialist economy. Hope you enjoyed your free stuff while it lasted.
Does spending on transit or roads correlate with increased miles?