Will Transit Prevent Bay Area Traffic Jams?

A key part of the MacArthur Freeway, one of the most congested roads in the San Francisco Bay Area, collapsed in a tanker fire early Sunday morning. As shown in these graphic photos, the accident managed to put Interstate 80, 580, 880, 980, and state highway 24 out of commission.

In response, Governor Schwarzenegger announced that all Bay Area transit services will be free on Monday as commuters adjust to the new situation. BART promised to run longer trains and other transit agencies promised to increase frequencies.

So we are about to witness a number of interesting experiments.

  • How many people are going to ride transit vs. how many are going to find other routes or just change their travel plans?
  • How many of those new transit riders will stick with transit when the road is fixed?
  • How long will it take and how much will it cost to fix the highway after legislators or administrators declare an emergency and hastily drop all the red tape normally required for road construction?

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Beyond this, I have a simple question: Just why does it make sense to lower transit fares just when we can expect the demand for transit to rise?

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

4 Responses to Will Transit Prevent Bay Area Traffic Jams?

  1. msetty says:

    As of 10:00 a.m., few traffic snarls or transit overloads. People clearly are flexible and adjust to conditions, whether via road or transit.

    See S.F. Gate article.

  2. JimKarlock says:

    Looking at the pictures, that was a very ideal location to close several freeways. I wonder who the driver will turn out to be.

    Thanks
    JK

  3. MSetty asked me to add:

    RE: the falling freeway–which is EB from Bay Bridge to MacArthur Freeway, I-580 and State 24, and SB connector from I-80 to I-880. Open in opposite direction on these links, and all other connectors. According to the real time monitors, traffic congestion seems about average, probably because a lot of people stayed home or took transit earlier or later than usual peaks. Not clear exactly…the traffic congestion shown around 2:00 p.m. today at baytrafficmap is pretty much the norm…

    So far ridership on the Vallejo Ferry is up about 50%, which is remarkable for (1) the fact ferry parking was full BEFORE this incident; and (2) travel to S.F. is still passable along I-80 from Vallejo, Richmond, Berkeley and Emeryville to S.F. That 1:00 p.m. trip is probably joy riders–since rides are free today only–I was tempted myself except I have time-constrained work to do! 

  4. msetty says:

    There was also an evening Giants baseball game tonight (Monday the 30th). This typically adds 400-500 passengers to the daily Baylink ferry loads.

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