Metro GM: “In 2018, the Game’s Over”

The Antiplanner has been writing about Washington Metro’s downward spiral for nearly two years, but the end may be in sight. According to Metro’s general manager, Paul Wiedefeld, after 2018, “the game’s over.” Or, as Metro board chair Jack Evans says, if the problems aren’t solved by then, “the only option I see is to cut back on service enormously.”

That wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. Census data indicate that, in 1970 before any Metro lines were built, 17.61 percent of DC-area commuters took transit to work–virtually all on buses. In 2015, between buses, Metro rail, and Maryland and Virginia commuter rail lines, transit’s share was 17.58 percent. In the years since 1970 in which the census has surveyed people (every decennial census and every year since 2005), the highest it has ever been was 17.70 percent in 2005. So going back to buses wouldn’t need to reduce transit ridership. Since bus riders don’t have to worry about broken rails or smoke in the tunnels, replacing trains with buses might even increase ridership.

All of the delays suffered by passengers so Metro can do maintenance hasn’t seemed to improve reliability. Just a few days ago, trains on three lines were delayed so much that one rider tweeted, “An hour and 45 min into my @wmata commute, I’m finally BACK WHERE I STARTED! Gave up and went home.”

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Another rider suggests that Metro could deal with overcrowding on the Blue line by changing the system map to subtly encourage more people to take the Yellow line. But it’s going to take more than tweaking a map to fix Metro’s problems. Frankly, it is going to take billions of dollars that no one wants to spend.

Meanwhile, a DC architect has suggested a good use for Metro railcars: turn them into housing for the homeless. Each car, says Arthur Cotton Moore, is big enough to turn into two one-bedroom apartments. He’s referring to railcars that Metro is currently replacing, but his suggestion could just as well apply to all of them. It would certainly be safer than using them as railcars.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

One Response to Metro GM: “In 2018, the Game’s Over”

  1. C. P. Zilliacus says:

    The Antiplanner wrote:

    The Antiplanner has been writing about Washington Metro’s downward spiral for nearly two years, but the end may be in sight. According to Metro’s general manager, Paul Wiedefeld, after 2018, “the game’s over.” Or, as Metro board chair Jack Evans says, if the problems aren’t solved by then, “the only option I see is to cut back on service enormously.”

    Now in fairness to Paul Wiedefeld, it should be pointed out that this mess is not his creation. It came about over the decades before he arrived, and was caused (at least in part) by placing a much higher priority on expanding the rail system than maintaining and repairing what was already open.

    It was also caused at least in part by people that were supposed to be overseeing the system instead being a cheerleading squad for it – and the doctrine of Metro infallibility (apologies to religious faiths that believe this about their leaders), meaning that problems with Metro were not problems (but demonstrated a need for dedicated taxpayer funding), and it was still the mode of transportation that everyone should be using (sometimes Metro was promoted as a morally superior form of transportation).

    That wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. Census data indicate that, in 1970 before any Metro lines were built, 17.61 percent of DC-area commuters took transit to work–virtually all on buses. In 2015, between buses, Metro rail, and Maryland and Virginia commuter rail lines, transit’s share was 17.58 percent. In the years since 1970 in which the census has surveyed people (every decennial census and every year since 2005), the highest it has ever been was 17.70 percent in 2005. So going back to buses wouldn’t need to reduce transit ridership. Since bus riders don’t have to worry about broken rails or smoke in the tunnels, replacing trains with buses might even increase ridership.

    Remember that Metro(rail) was promoted as a replacement for several radial freeway corridors, especially those that connected downtown D.C. with the two Maryland suburban counties (Virginia had one freeway corridor (I-395) open to D.C. when Metro opened up for operation, and one federal parkway corridor (George Washington Parkway) – and added a second radial freeway (I-66) during the early years of Metrorail construction (the Metro Orange and Silver Lines run part of the way in the median of the second freeway). It was also promoted as a certain cure for highway traffic congestion.

    To your point about buses – Washington had a pretty good transit bus system prior to the opening of the first Metro line in 1976. Metrobus was created in 1972 out of three private bus companies holding franchises granted by government to operate their routes (the largest, D.C. Transit System, Inc. (which served essentially all of D.C. and a large swath of the Maryland suburbs) had a wholly-owned Virginia subsidiary company, so some writers say it was formed out of four companies). One of the most appealing features of that system was express bus service that ran mostly during rush hours and charged higher fares for a faster and usually one-seat ride between residential areas and downtown D.C.

    Having said that, I doubt that there will be a retreat to the bus-only transit system, if for no other reason than politics. In spite of its problems, many (most?) elected officials around the area profess to love Metro.

    All of the delays suffered by passengers so Metro can do maintenance hasn’t seemed to improve reliability. Just a few days ago, trains on three lines were delayed so much that one rider tweeted, “An hour and 45 min into my @wmata commute, I’m finally BACK WHERE I STARTED! Gave up and went home.”

    I am usually skeptical of the “give it some time” excuse when it comes to rail transit, but in this case, I believe that Wiedefeld is doing the right thing, because it will almost certainly prevent accidents like the ones at Fort Totten and Smithsonian and incidents like the smoking cables at L’Enfant Plaza – which have injured and killed people.

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