October Ridership Still Just 37% of 2019

Transit ridership in October 2020 was just 37.1 percent of October 2019 numbers, according to data posted Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. This is only a tiny improvement from September, when ridership was 36.9 percent of September 2019.

Despite the huge decline in ridership, transit agencies are still maintaining service at 75 percent of 2019 levels. Transit in the New York urban area, where ridership is down 62.4 percent, is running at 85 percent of 2019 levels. Agencies say they are doing this to allow for “social distancing,” but it is more likely that they are spending the money to keep union workers employed and to justify their parasitical existence.

Among major urban areas, the biggest change is in the San Francisco Bay Area, where ridership is just 23 percent of 2019 levels. At 25 percent, Washington is second followed by Boston, Sacramento, and San Jose, all of which are around 30 percent.

As I noted ten days ago, Department of Transportation analyst Steve Polzin thinks that ridership will eventually recover to 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels. I’ve argued that it isn’t likely to get above 75 percent. But it has been stuck at 37 percent for several months, so we both may be overestimating.

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As usual, I’ve posted an enhanced spreadsheet (12.3-MB) that includes all of the FTA’s raw data (monthly ridership since 2002 by transit agency and mode on the UPT or unlinked passenger trips sheet) in cells A1:IA220; annual totals in columns IB through IT; mode totals in rows 2207 through 2227; agency totals in rows 2240 through 3239; and totals for the 200 largest urban areas in rows 3240 through 3440.

Column IU shows the percentage change in ridership from October 2019 to October 2020 and column IV shows the percentage change in the year-to-date ridership in 2019 vs. 2020. I’ve added the same calculations to the VRM (vehicle-revenue miles) sheet, revealing that transit agencies have only reduced service by 25 percent, which is why they have run out of money and are demanding a $32 billion bailout from U.S. taxpayers for 2021. New York City transit service is down only 15 percent.

One curiosity: the VRM page shows that service in Boston increased by 166 percent. This is solely due to a massive increase in demand-response (paratransit) service. Did the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority contract out all of its transit service to Uber and Lyft?

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

One Response to October Ridership Still Just 37% of 2019

  1. Henry Porter says:

    There is a huge oversupply of transit and there will soon be an under supply of road space. As Highway demand bounces back and transit demand remains stagnant, who wants to bet that the next congress will address the right one?

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