The Antiplanner

17th January 2008

Milwaukie Light Rail to Cost (gasp, choke) $1.25 billion

posted in Transportation |

Actually, $1.25 billion is the low estimate for a light-rail line from Portland to Milwaukie, Oregon. Depending on the routing, it could be as high as $1.4 billion, not counting cost overruns.

For those of you not familiar with Portland, Milwaukie is not some distant suburb. It is immediately adjacent to Portland. I used to commute (by bike) through Milwaukie on my way from Oak Grove to Portland, and it was 8 miles to downtown. (I probably also rode faster than the light rail will go.)

For $1.25 to $1.4 billion, they plan to carry up to 25,800 trips per day. More than half will be former bus riders. Amortizing the capital cost at 7 percent (the rate required for such analyses by the Federal Transit Administration) over 30 years, the capital cost per new trip will be a minimum of $27, and a maximum of $46. This does not count operating costs.

The biggest cost is the expense of a brand new bridge across the Willamette River which, of course, will not be open to those dirty rotten scoundrels who drive automobiles. As far as Portland planners are concerned, they can go fall in the river when the tottering Sellwood Bridge collapses. That bridge — the smallest and least used auto bridge over Portland’s Willamette River — carries more than 30,000 cars per day, which means that it carries a lot more people than the light-rail will carry.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 17th, 2008 at 12:00 am and is filed under Transportation. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

There are currently 6 responses to “Milwaukie Light Rail to Cost (gasp, choke) $1.25 billion”

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  1. 1 On January 17th, 2008, JimKarlock said:

    antiplanne For $1.25 to $1.4 billion, they plan to carry up to 25,800 trips per day. More than half will be former bus riders. Amortizing the capital cost at 7 percent (the rate required for such analyses by the Federal Transit Administration) over 30 years, the capital cost per new trip will be a minimum of $27, and a maximum of $46. This does not count operating costs.
    JK:
    $27 for a max of 6.5 miles = $4.15 per passenger-mile
    $46 for a max of 6.5 miles = $7.08 per passenger-mile

    For comparison, driving a car is about $0.20 per passenger-mile.

    Thanks
    JK

    posted on January 17th, 2008 at 2:07 am

  2. 2 On January 17th, 2008, prk166 said:

    1/2? Are you telling me the transit agency is proposing spending over a $1 billion and they don’t know something that basic?

    And isn’t the approach these days to underestimate ridership by 35% so when the line opens it’s incredibly “successful”?

    What is the maximum capacity for the line?

    If the line opens, how many transit riders will be lost? Surely there will be some since their nice direct bus will now be routed to LRT where they will sit around waiting for 5-15 minutes during rush hour to catch a train. Not all people will by Tammy Wynette [sic] with the new train. There will be people who will decide that they’d just as well spend $10 a day parking downtown and drive than spend an an hour each way on the train.

    posted on January 17th, 2008 at 5:53 am

  3. 3 On January 17th, 2008, Veddie Edder said:

    This seems like a small price to pay for a light rail line that will go all the way to Wisconsin.

    posted on January 17th, 2008 at 6:43 am

  4. 4 On January 17th, 2008, johngalt said:

    They ruled out BRT on this corridor because the fancy stations made the costs close to rail, is this still the case?

    Have they evaluated HOT lanes? If they put limited access HOT lanes in the commute on McLoughlin would be so superior to other areas with MAX LRT that Milwaukie would set the standard and be looked at as a leader in transportation instead of the last to “finally” get a MAX line.

    posted on January 17th, 2008 at 11:18 am

  5. 5 On January 17th, 2008, Tad Winiecki said:

    Randal, I am sure you or I could beat the Tri-Met bus/LRT system on more than 90% of trips in the Tri-Met service area on our bikes. (All trips, not just present trips by Tri-Met users). About the only trips where Tri-Met would be quicker are those for people who live near an express bus stop that is the nearest to downtown Portland and they are going to downtown Portland.

    posted on January 17th, 2008 at 4:29 pm

  6. 6 On January 29th, 2008, NPWeditor said:

    “For comparison, driving a car is about $0.20 per passenger-mile.”

    Is that the cost to the driver? Does it include the cost of building and maintaining roads, bridges, and highways? What’s the total cost, including externalities? How much of the total cost does the driver payand how much is subsidized by government?

    posted on January 29th, 2008 at 12:37 pm

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