Bail This Out

Some people think the bail out bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday was unconstitutional, as only the House of Representatives is allowed to initiate tax legislation. The vote was scheduled for Wednesday because Senate leaders expected the House to pass the bill on Monday. When the House failed to do so, the Senate merely attached the bailout bill to another bill (dealing with mental health) that had already passed the House. With flexibility like that, who needs a Constitution?

To make the bill even more politically attractive, the Senate added nearly 300 pages of tax breaks and other special-interest legislation costing $150 billion (partly offset by $40 billion in spending cuts or tax increases elsewhere in the bill). The tax breaks go to such vital sectors of the economy as Puerto Rican rum makers, auto race tracks, bicycle commuters, restaurant remodelers, and makers of “wooden arrows designed for use by children.”

Last week, Oregon Representative Greg Walden could only get a handful of his colleagues to support a restoration of federal payments to national forest counties (most of which will go to Oregon counties). Not to worry: the county payments have been added to the Senate bill. If the House gets stampeded into approving the bill without amendment, Oregon counties will be flush again.

The original Paulson plan was 3 pages long. The bill rejected by the House was 110. The bill approved by the Senate was 451 (52 pages of which were in the original bill on mental health).

Therefore, it is extremely essential to assure that you will enjoy the sex like levitra generic canada to its fullest with the intake of the Silagra pills. Among all the behavioural tadalafil 20mg generic hyperthyroidism in cats symptoms are not very hard to recognize. In spite of cialis tablets india your level of fitness, knowledge or l health goals, you can survive a better and more contented life by adopting these habits. Consult your doctor about alternative treatments if you are being affected. find for source order generic levitra All this leaves undetermined whether the bailout is a good idea in the first place. The basic argument for the bailout is that credit markets are frozen because no one in the market knows how valuable their assets are. Under the “mark to market” accounting rule, owners of mortgage securities are supposed to reduce the value of the securities on their books to the true market value. But if the securities aren’t selling, no one knows what that value is.

The securities depend on the value of housing, but someone recently bought a home on ebay for $1.75. Most buyers are waiting to see how low home prices will fall before making an offer. Eventually, the economy, and by extension, housing prices and credit securities will recover. In the meantime, shall we list the value of all homes as $1.75? Instead, some think the mark-to-market rule should be suspended.

Instead, the essence of the Paulson plan is to put a floor on the value of credit securities by having the federal government buy them. This is supposed to assure other buyers of their value and allow banks to list those securities as being worth whatever the federal government is paying for them. One of the flaws is that the value of credit securities still ultimately depends on housing prices; if the plan doesn’t put a floor on housing prices, it won’t affect the underlying long-run value of the securities.

Some people have proposed that the federal government simply buy homes instead. I’m not convinced that will work either — the total value of overpriced housing is several trillion dollars, so a mere $700 billion might not be enough. Besides, I don’t think it will help in the long run to keep overpriced housing overpriced.

The House is going to vote on the Senate bill today (October 3). Whatever the House does, it is likely we are in for a long recession.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

9 Responses to Bail This Out

  1. the highwayman says:

    OMG, for once you’re against a track that isn’t even rail related!

  2. prk166 says:

    The value of mortgage-backed bonds does not ultimately depend on housing prices. The value of mortgage-backed bonds, like their sibling asset-backed bonds, ultimately depends on how much money, if any, can make off of buying them. Sure, housing prices factor into that but not directly. What matter directly is how many people in that pool of mortgages are paying on time, paying ahead of time, missing payments or not paying at all.

  3. prk166,

    Sorry, the value of mortgage-backed bonds does ultimately depend on housing prices. People often have to move. When they move, they generally sell their homes. If they are “short” — if the current value of their homes is less than what they owe on their mortgage — they often default. Other people who got ARMs or interest-only loans in the expectation that they could refi or sell before their payments increased also get caught short. If housing prices weren’t declining, none of these people would be short. It is these sorts of defaults that reduce the value of mortgage-backed securities.

  4. StevePlunk says:

    The SEC has offered alternatives to ‘mark to market’ valuation. This was done mid week and will help the current situation if the nervous Nellies will settle down.

    The mortgage backed securities can be valued based upon cash flow and the quality of the borrowers. The underlying asset of the house can be used to determine value as well. The problem is having the time to determine what are good loans and what are bad loans. With no diagnostics done buyers are left to guess the value and will not pay anything. No market value even though there is real value.

    I wonder if many of the investment bank failures could have been avoided with this change being made last January instead of last week?

  5. Dan says:

    I wonder if many of the investment bank failures could have been avoided with this change being made last January instead of last week?

    Of course.

    However, that would have cast doubt on the fantabulous BushCo economy. Far better to try and push that off until after the election. Too bad for ideologues that didn’t work out.

    DS

  6. D4P says:

    Too bad for ideologues that didn’t work out

    On the bright side, they can always blame economic problems on Clinton and the terrorists.

  7. Dan says:

    How come Chertoff didn’t call an Orange Alert on the economy? It’s election time and Repub polls are decreasing? Worked so well last time…

    DS

  8. JimKarlock says:

    Think this is just a Bush problem?

    Read about all the Democrats (& Rs) defending Fan & Fred:

    online.wsj.com/article/SB122290574391296381.html?mod=article-outset-box

    Thanks
    JK

  9. the highwayman says:

    Mr. Karlock, your political bullshit is part of the problem!

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