The Non-Story Story

Nearly two years ago, the Federal Transit Administration released a report saying the transit industry has a $77 billion maintenance backlog. So why is the Associated Press making a big deal of this report now?

“Americans are turning to trains and buses to get around in greater numbers than ever before,” says the AP. “The aging trains and buses they’re riding, however, face an $80 billion maintenance backlog that jeopardizes service just when it’s most in demand.”

The article’s writer never critically examines the claim that Americans are riding transit “in greater numbers than ever before,” and it is flat-out wrong. The American Public Transportation Association’s latest ridership report says that Americans took 10.4 million transit trips in 2011.

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What’s going on is that transit interests, with the help of gullible news reporters, is keeping the political pressure on members of Congress who are debating the future of federal transportation funding.

“We’ve totally mismanaged the transit industry,” they are saying, “by neglecting our infrastructure and instead spending tax dollars on expensive new rail lines, transit centers, and other infrastructure that we won’t be able to maintain either. Now, we demand that you reward us for our incompetence by giving us $80 billion to fix the maintenance backlog. If you don’t, we just may have to shut down, stranding the many (though we really don’t want to say how many) commuters who depend on transit to get to work.”

Of course, they have every reason to believe this strategy will work. Only government rewards people for screwing up and punishes them for success.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

9 Responses to The Non-Story Story

  1. Andrew says:

    The next fixed investment of the US is what? $60 trillion? $100 trillion?

    You are getting worked up over spending $80 billion on transit? I.e. renewing over many years, 0.1% of the fixed investment present in our country? It probably doesn’t even amount to that much if you properly account for the current value of past investments.

    What is the relevance of citing wartime ridership statstics under circumstances of gasoline and tire rationing?

    And don’t you mean 10.4 BILLION trips, not MILLION trips? I guess you are only off by a factor of 1000 there. What is that? Three orders of magnitude?

    And as to 2008 having more riders, isn’t that because in 2008, unemployment was 5% instead of 8.5%, and much more bus service was being offered which has since been lost due to massive cuts in service around the country in response to Republican forced austerity measures? Its hard to haul more riders when massive service cuts are occurring.

    And why not compare back to 1996, when transit had 7.9 billion trips by APTA counts. Going from 7.9 billion to 10.4 billion in 15 years is pretty impressive – growth of 167 million riders per year. This level of annual growth goes back at least to the 1970’s.

    The current level of ridership works out to 34 trips per American per year. Considering how useless transit supposedly is according to you, and how you claim it doesn’t go anywhere helpful for most people, that is pretty impressive.

  2. Tombdragon says:

    Well, Andrew I am proud to say that I don’t use public transit at all anymore, because it is expensive, unsafe, time consuming and is incapable of serving my needs, or my family. Now one exception would be that earlier this year I took my son on the bus – he’s 12 – to educate him on how to ride – on TriMet – in Portland, Oregon – it was unsafe, I didn’t feel comfortable or safe, and if he needs transportation my wife and I will continue to bring him to, and from – where he needs to be. The passengers were unruly, and some riders were intent upon intimidating, and making others around them uncomfortable. Now 35 years ago, I took this same Fremont bus to-and-from school daily, and it was safe, comfortable, and a good experience, but not today. The neighborhoods are in most cases the same, but the riders are undisciplined, impolite, and like I said intent upon making others uncomfortable.

    I deliver my product, and service to my customer location – like most Americans. Public Transit no longer exists as a service to those who need transportation, it exists as a political tool to intimidate, cajole, and force residents to lower their standard of living in order to validate this unneeded government service, and in most cases is being expanded to accommodate those who could afford to provide their own vehicular means of transportation.

    • Iced Borscht says:

      “Well, Andrew I am proud to say that I don’t use public transit at all anymore, because it is expensive, unsafe, time consuming and is incapable of serving my needs, or my family.”

      I’m the same way. I ditched awful awful awful TriMet in favor of commuting by bike. And I actually get to work faster now.

  3. MJ says:

    You are getting worked up over spending $80 billion on transit? I.e. renewing over many years, 0.1% of the fixed investment present in our country? It probably doesn’t even amount to that much if you properly account for the current value of past investments.

    The point is that billions upon billions are spent each year on new starts when many of the largest transit properties are not using their existing funds wisely and maintaining the capital stocks they have. The federal government (and many state and local governments) is rewarding bad behavior.

    What is the relevance of citing wartime ridership statstics under circumstances of gasoline and tire rationing?

    Because, unlike the incorrect claim in the AP story, this actually was the high water mark for public transit use in the United States. But you don’t need to look at wartime data to demonstrate this. Public transit use far exceeded today’s levels for many years before either the war or the Depression. And the historical APTA data probably understate this disparity, since when transit properties were privately owned, they measured ridership in terms of paying customers, not unlinked boardings.

    And don’t you mean 10.4 BILLION trips, not MILLION trips? I guess you are only off by a factor of 1000 there. What is that? Three orders of magnitude?

    Congratulations on pointing out a typo. What is the order-of-magnitude difference between public transit use and private vehicle use?

    And as to 2008 having more riders, isn’t that because in 2008, unemployment was 5% instead of 8.5%, and much more bus service was being offered which has since been lost due to massive cuts in service around the country in response to Republican forced austerity measures? Its hard to haul more riders when massive service cuts are occurring.

    Between 2007 and 2010 total transit vehicle-miles nationwide increased from 4.2 billion to 4.4 billion. Not exactly austerity. Not exactly drastic cuts in service.

    And why not compare back to 1996, when transit had 7.9 billion trips by APTA counts. Going from 7.9 billion to 10.4 billion in 15 years is pretty impressive – growth of 167 million riders per year. This level of annual growth goes back at least to the 1970?s.

    Going back to 1996, that 167 million riders per year amounts to an annual increase of about 1.8 percent, not exactly earth-shattering. Of course, population also increased at about 1 percent per year over that period. And the introduction of new rail systems which require forced transfers for many riders will further inflate the ridership increase.

    Talk about a non-story.

    • Andrew says:

      Please provide a source for your report on vehicle miles.

      Bus ridership losses are centered on:

      LA -35M
      Phoenix -10M
      Oakland -15M
      Orange Co. -17M
      Chicago -18M
      Miami -10M
      NJT -9M
      Atlanta -8M
      Cleveland -10M
      Portland -10M
      Houston -15M
      Dallas -8M
      St. Louis -8M
      Hampton Roads -9M

      There are also smaller losses at some smaller agencies, but the list above accounts for most of it.

      The rest of the “losses” stem partly from certain agencies no longer reporting to APTA, such as Las Vegas, Montgomery County MD, Richmond VA. Non-reporting by them accounts for 110M rides “lost”.

      Its worth noting that most traditional rail cities gained rail and bus ridership – Boston, NYC, San Francisco, Philly

      • MJ says:

        The data on vehicle-miles are available from the annual NTD data releases.

        The “traditional” rail cities you refer to are also the ones with the largest maintenance backlogs (and, incidentally, the highest downtown parking costs), as Randal alludes to.

  4. sprawl says:

    The only problem I have with transit is, it does not go to where I want to go, when I need to be there, carrying the things I need, when I get there. I have often tryed transit in cities, I visit, but I’m usually disappointed in the service.

    One exception was a trip to Orlando, that had express buses that left the airport and went right to my motel after about 4 stops for a $1.50. It beat the $10.00 or so for the motel van, that was much slower, because it made several stops.

  5. TrojanHorse says:

    Arlington, VA has a street car proposal and many of its residents are worried that rents and property taxes will sky rocket. The current proposal requires a majority of the $250 million to come from state transit funds but the rest to be absorbed by bonds issued to the commercial sector. Another adjacent area is already issuing tax increment financing for the development of its streetcar. The problem is our area is NOT as wealthy. In fact, most of affordable units in this city are located where the trolley is being proposed. I am looking for studies on how the addition of streetcar to a neighborhood can affect its housing, small business and property tax affordability.

    Portland is always held as a model to what we should implement here with regards to our Streetcar Trolley. Perhaps we are being sold a shiny toy that will soon lose its luster?

    • sprawl says:

      If you want to see what Commissioner Charlie Hales claims in 1996 about tax abatement’s and light rail and street cars. Or head METRO planner, Andy Cotugno, in 1996. And others
      see
      http://www.portlandpolitic.com/lrt-no_development.html

      Development in Portland, mostly comes from tax breaks around streetcars, light rail and transit. Not the other way around. That is why most of the streetcar, light rail lines, are in urban renewal districts. Along with transit oriented development and historical tax breaks etc.
      also look at

      http://saveportland.com/

      for lists of tax breaks

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