The Fading of the Peak Oil Myth

Remember all the talk about peak oil a few years ago? You don’t hear much about it today. The United States, supposedly almost out of oil, began producing more oil than Saudi Arabia a few months ago.

No one thinks there’s an infinite supply of oil in the world, but the peak-oil proponents were claiming that world oil production was about to peak and then head forever downwards just as China and India were consuming more, leading gasoline prices to inexorably rise to $20, $30, even $100 a gallon. This would force everyone out of their cars and onto mass transit, a prediction that was used to justify all sorts of otherwise ridiculous light-rail lines and land-use regulations.

The Antiplanner scrutinized these ideas eight years ago and concluded that those who held them had no understanding of the laws of supply and demand. For one thing, there are plenty of alternative sources of energy that are economically inefficient today but that could come on line if ever oil prices did rise enough.

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Pipeline Brings Attention to Tar Sands

The New York Times editorialized against a pipeline aimed at bringing petroleum from Alberta into the United States, saying the pipeline “would traverse highly sensitive terrain” and the oil involved would generate too much carbon emissions. As far as “highly sensitive terrain” goes, the federal government’s environmental review found “no significant impact” from the pipeline.

The real issue is the future of our economy. Climate alarmists and peak-oil prophets want to minimize the production and consumption of oil. As the Antiplanner has noted before, When proponents of peak oil make their predictions of the future, they only consider what is known as “conventional oil” and ignore tar sands and oil shales. By opposing this pipeline and taking similar actions against producers of tar sand oil and other unconventional sources, they seek to make their prophecies self fulfilling.
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The Antiplanner remains a climate agnostic with the caveat that it makes more sense to be ready to adapt to climate change, if it happens, than to try to prevent it. The climate models indicate that even if we met the Kyoto protocols the climate would still change. Rather than hobble ourselves by crippling our economy, it makes more sense to be as productive as possible so that, if the climate does change, we can more easily adapt to it. If climate change is really happening, actions needed to truly stop it would do more harm to humanity than the change itself.