Boston: Success Story or Disaster?

Boston began planning for compact development and rail transit in the early 1970s under Governor Francis Sargent. Sargent appointed Alan Altshuler, a transportation professor at MIT, to be his Secretary of Transportation.

Sargent and Altshuler decided that freeways were destroying Boston, so in 1972 they cancelled almost all new highway construction inside route 128 (a beltway around Boston). They convinced Congress to allow states that cancelled urban interstates to spend the federal money allocated to the interstates on transit instead.

Since the money could only be spent on capital improvements, that meant rail transit; buses just weren’t expensive enough. ($100 million buys a lot of buses that the local government then has to operate, but it may buy only one rail line, so the operating cost obligations are a lot lower.)

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The Prediction Problem: Planners Aren’t Prophets

During World War II, Kenneth Arrow–who would receive the Nobel Prize in economics in 1972–served as a part of the weather forecasting service for the Army Air Corps. As Peter Bernstein recounts in his 1998 book, Against the Gods, Arrow and his colleagues soon realized that their long-range forecasts were no better than numbers pulled out of a hat, and they asked to be assigned to more useful work.

“The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good,” they were told in reply. “However, he needs them for planning purposes.”

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