Tag Archives: high-speed rail

Japan is known for many things, but two of them are the Shinkansen high-speed trains and the nation’s three Lost Decades of slow economic growth. Unfortunately, most tourists who go to Japan see the former and don’t see the latter and especially don’t see the connection between the two.

The distinctive noses of Japan’s first high-speed trains led people to call them bullet trains, a name that has endured even though later trains were shaped quite differently.

Yesterday’s 60th anniversary of the first revenue runs of the Shinkansen generated many laudatory articles about the trains. “Bullet trains changed the world of rail travel forever,” said CNN. The Guardian called it “The train that helped rebuild the idea of a country.” Continue reading →

The California High-Speed Rail Authority recently released a new draft business plan saying that it needs only $100 billion more to finish the project. The plan admits that the agency expects to spend more on the 171 miles between Merced and Bakersfield than the $33 billion it had projected the entire 463-mile project would cost when voters approved it in 2008. Even with a recent federal grant, the agency only has about $25 billion for the project, most of which it has already spent.

Click image to download a 17.8-MB PDF of this plan.

As shown on page 65 of the plan, the current projection is that the final cost of the project will be between $89 billion and $128 billion, with $106 billion supposedly being most likely. It pairs this with a projected cost of $211 billion “that would be necessary to construct the equivalent highway and air passenger capacity.” However, this is entirely bogus. It assumes, for example, that the only way to increase airline capacities is by building new airports; increasing the size of planes flying between LA and San Francisco is somehow impossible. It also assumes that new freeway lanes would have to be constructed the entire distance between LA and the Bay Area, even in places that aren’t expected to be congested in the future. Continue reading →

Remember DesertXpress, later known as Xpress West? It was going to be a high-speed train between the Los Angeles area and Las Vegas. Projected to cost under $5 billion, the company said it would build and operate it without any subsidies. The Antiplanner was skeptical.

Brightline’s image of its high-speed train across the desert.

The project is now owned by Brightline, the company that runs the moderate-speed trains in Florida that are unsubsidized if you don’t count all the people they are killing and the government-funded safety improvements aimed at reducing those deaths. Projected costs of the Vegas line have risen to $12 billion, partly because Brightline sensibly decided that it would have to build into Los Angeles to get any riders. Far from not needing any subsidies, Brightline was overjoyed to receive a $3 billion grant from the federal government. One news report calls this a bet, but it’t not really betting if you are using other people’s money. Continue reading →

The Mineta Institute — named after a San Jose congressman who was Secretary of Transportation in 2001 through 2006 — has a new report claiming that high-speed rail will produce huge economic and environmental benefits. Rather than being based on any careful analyses, it basically repeats old claims that are even less valid today than when they were first made.

Click image to download a 3.1-MB PDF of this report.

For example, the report cites the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s claim that rail construction “has generated an estimated 74,000 to 80,000 job years, $5.6 to $6.0 billion in labor income, and $15 billion to $16 billion in economic output between 2006 and 2022.” That’s like saying that buying a $100,000 car generates $100,000 in income. It might be income for someone, but for the person buying, the $100,000 is a cost, not a revenue. Continue reading →

At least one passenger is thrilled that a high-speed train that began operating earlier this month has reduced train travel times from Bandung to Jakarta, Indonesia, from 3 hours to 44 minutes. The rail line uses Chinese technology and was financed by China under that country’s belt-and-road initiative.

Indonesia’s high-speed train on a test run before the October 2 inauguration. Photo by Muhammad Bintang Nurandi Putra.

Although the train has a top speed of 210 miles per hour, the rail distance between the two cities is only 88 miles, so the average speed is only 120 miles per hour. The rail line cost $7.3 billion, which was $1.2 billion more than the original projection. At $83 million per mile, that’s comparable to the cost of the high-speed rail line being built in California, thus defying arguments that high-speed rail can be built at a much lower cost. Continue reading →

Washington state Democrats believe that a Portland-Seattle-Vancouver high-speed rail line is vital to the future of the Northwest. It is so vital, in fact, that they want someone else to pay for it, namely the federal government. The federal government, after all, seems to be unique in the world in that it can spend unlimited amounts of money without raising taxes to cover those costs.

You’ll never guess why they think high-speed rail is needed so badly. According to a letter from Washington members of Congress to Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, the high-speed train will “allow people to live in less densely populated areas and work anywhere in the megaregion.” So much for the supposed benefits of high-density living! Continue reading →

Nearly two months ago, the Antiplanner reported that, after spending $2 billion, the Chicago-St. Louis high-speed rail would be speeded up from an average speed of 55.7 miles per hour (for the fastest train in the corridor) to 59.6 miles per hour. These higher average speeds were to go into effect on June 26 and would supposedly reduce travel times between Chicago and St. Louis by half an hour from what they had been before spending the money.

I am reminded of this by an article in the paper edition of Trains magazine, which reported that trains were indeed speeded up on June 26. However it turns out the gains are even worse than I reported. Yes, one of the five trains in the corridor will go an average of 59.6 miles per hour (but the others will go slower). But the $2 billion spent in the corridor didn’t come close to fulfilling the promises made when the federal government handed out the funds in 2010. Continue reading →

“Yes, but it creates jobs!” has long been the last refuge for scoundrels promoting expensive boondoggles, so it is no surprise that it is now being used to justify continued spending on the California high-speed rail project. The most recent release from the California High Speed Rail Authority says that they now expect the project to cost up to $128 billion, but that’s okay, because it is putting 10,000 people to work.

That argument might carry some weight if we had a high unemployment rate. But right now, the United States is suffering from a major labor shortage. Each person working on the California rail line is one less person helping to move goods to markets, build homes, and so other essential work. One more strike against high-speed rail: it contributes to the increasing costs of everything. Continue reading →

Brightline says it has raised enough money to start construction on a 200-mph rail line from Victorville, California to Las Vegas. The company projects the line will cost $10 billion, or about $45 million a mile for the 218-mile route.

Brightline in Florida. Illustration by All Aboard Florida (Brightline’s original name).

Brightline has $1 billion in private activity bonds to start construction. But I would be surprised if Brightline has managed to find private investors foolish enough to give the company the other $9 billion needed for this line. The company says that it expects to attract 12 million people a year heading to Las Vegas or Los Angeles out of their cars and buses, or almost 30 percent of the 42 million traveling by highway today, but that seems highly unlikely. Continue reading →