Remember DesertXpress, later known as Xpress West? It was going to be a high-speed train between the Los Angeles area and Las Vegas. Projected to cost under $5 billion, the company said it would build and operate it without any subsidies. The Antiplanner was skeptical.
Brightline’s image of its high-speed train across the desert.
The project is now owned by Brightline, the company that runs the moderate-speed trains in Florida that are unsubsidized if you don’t count all the people they are killing and the government-funded safety improvements aimed at reducing those deaths. Projected costs of the Vegas line have risen to $12 billion, partly because Brightline sensibly decided that it would have to build into Los Angeles to get any riders. Far from not needing any subsidies, Brightline was overjoyed to receive a $3 billion grant from the federal government. One news report calls this a bet, but it’t not really betting if you are using other people’s money.
I am more skeptical than ever. Brightline spent only $1 billion building its 130-mph line across flatlands to Orlando. The line to Vegas is supposed to go up to 190 miles per hour, which means it will cost a lot more to build, plus it will cross several mountain ranges, increasing the costs still further. That means the company will need to charge much higher fares than for its Florida train, whose fares start at $79 for Miami to Orlando.
The Florida line has a captive audience of more than 10 million cruise ship passengers debarking from three east coast ports and only limited bus competition between those ports and Orlando. The Vegas line doesn’t have cruise ships, but it does have millions of people who travel between Los Angeles and Las Vegas each year. Unlike in Florida, however, those people are scattered over more than 2,000 square miles of land. Unlike cruise ship passengers, nearly all of those people have cars, and many will want the convenience of having a car in case they want to visit, say, Hoover Dam or another casino.
The drive from LA to Vegas is about 4 hours, less than twice the 130 minutes the train is supposed to take. The difference is even smaller when the time getting from people’s homes to the train station is added.
For people who don’t need a car when in Vegas, Brightline will face even stiffer competition from airlines. I count eight different airlines currently offering at least 64 flights a day between Los Angeles and Las Vegas with fares as low as $24. Flight times range between 49 and 75 minutes, roughly half as long as the train. Considering that Miami to Orlando fares start at $79, I doubt Brightline could come close to covering its operating costs, much less repay its capital costs, at fares below $80. Fares of at least $100 will probably be needed. Heck, Amtrak collected an average of 85¢ a passenger-mile from Acela passengers last year without covering all of its costs. That would equal fares of well over $200 between LA and Vegas.
Non-stop flights to Vegas also leave from four different airports in the Los Angeles region: LAX, Burbank, Ontario, and Santa Ana, which means more people in the Los Angeles region are closer to an airport than a centrally located train station. Las Vegas’ airport is located just minutes away from the strip. So it seems likely that the airlines will have the advantages of price, speed, and convenience over Brightline. Few people will pay more money to take a slower train that is harder to get to, at least not more than once.
I am dubious that any private investors will be willing to contribute $9 billion to this project. What happens if Brightline can only raise $6 billion? What happens if it raises $9 billion but costs rise to $15 billion? Will the federal government be obligated to bail out the company on the premise that, to save face, politicians always have to throw good money after bad?
What happens if the project is completed but Brightline can’t attract enough customers to pay its operating costs, much less repay investors? Will the states have to take over operations? One way or another, this just looks like a giant money pit to me and it is all being promoted by idiotic railfan cheerleaders who can’t seem to get it through their heads that jet airplanes are faster and less expensive than trains.
The problem with High speed rail is just like Hyperloop, ALL the technology critical to it’s upbringing is in the infrastructure. thats a huge problem when service, new technology emerges or worse if the government lets the infrastructure rot.
Since the technology is in the infrastructure and the infrastructure has an expected lifespan that requires a specific degree of extensive labor intensive inputs to keep serviceable…Its impossible to routinely upgrade.
Buses and planes most, the technology is in the vehicle….
If CAHSR was 25 Billion like in 2008, MAYBE it’d have a edge. Restructuring Highway spending to minimize non-user fee related subsidies would have offered some advantage……..to buses.
The problem with HSR between LV and LA is… will it just be LA to LV or will Palm Springs, Victorville demand share from the pot for stations and track.
One solution was Competitive bonus contract between the two cities to build Most rail fastest Like Transcontinental railroad.
Second if they wanted genuine high speeds, they should have just bought germany’s Transrapid Maglev, a technology that’s been around since 1969.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArzRriOH0Uo
But like HSR requires it’s own dedicated infrastructure, which serve no purpose other than it’s own vehicles.
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if you don’t count all the people they are killing and the government-funded safety improvements aimed at reducing those deaths.
” ~anti-planner
I’m a bit surprised by this one. First, you would not have to count government bonds issued for the project. Not a big deal overall but not a pure private venture in that sense.
As for the safety improvements, the govt’s responsibility is to improve those xings. from the RR’s point of view, an at-grade xing the road is essentially guests. The RR owns the property. It’s up the road owner to supply safety measures for the road.
Should Brightline have full quad protected xings? Yes. That would be the right thing to do. But legally more or les it’s up to the road owners to do it.
Would the FLDOT and others covering most of those costs be a subsidy for Brighline? No.
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So it seems likely that the airlines will have the advantages of price, speed, and convenience over Brightline.
” ~anti-planner
And that’s the best apples to apples comparison. Traffic is horrible but people already can fly. Many don’t because they have to buy on a per ticket basis, rather than the cost of driving being the same whether solo or 6 people in the car.
Traffic isn’t horrible between LA Vegas unless you’re driving in the peak of a busy event, like after F1. Even so, I don’t know anyone who would use the train over their personal car.
Good points. Not to mention trying to bring in luggage.
Why would luggage be an issue?
I really dont know about convenience. Airlines are a pain in the ass, and rail lines are unfortunately equally so in the US for literally no reason. Plus airlines dont have to maintain their own runways and airports, cause they’re owned by the government, while rail lines are not owned by the government save for amtrak I think. In this sense, airlines are subsidized to a degree to allow them to outcompete private rail.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/07/californias-budget-deficit-balloons-to-68b-00130624
so where’s california gonna get the money. Update: 2 hours released California now has a 68 BILLION dollar deficit.
This is a private venture, and only got federal grants not a state grant.
Flying has its obstacles. Last month, I flew from Burbank to Las Vegas and the flight was delayed three times.
At this this HSR, will encourage flights to be responsible.
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Plus airlines dont have to maintain their own runways and airports,
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The airlines pay for airports with user fees. The same with their passengers.
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local/business-journal/saint-louis-lambert-international-airport-additional-debt-capital-improvement-plan/63-4446500a-e85f-41ee-b824-76559f63832c
Lambert has about $450 million in debt, tied to the infamous W-1W runway project. It is serviced from fees paid by Lambert’s tenant airlines and others.