Did Ride Hailing Increase Congestion?

“A new MIT study found that not only do rideshares increase congestion, but they also made traffic jams longer, led to a significant decline in people taking public transit, and haven’t really impacted car ownership,” reports Gizmodo. As noted here previously, transit advocates blame ride hailing for all sorts of problems in order to justify taxes and other restrictions to limit competition.

The new study from MIT is frankly unpersuasive. First of all, it says very little about the methodology used to come up with its results: page 1 of the study is an introduction and page 2 immediately begins to present the results. It appears the writers compared data in 44 urban areas before and after the introduction of ride hailing into those areas between 2012 and 2016.

Second, the writers appear to have made no effort to correct for or even consider any other variables. Although Uber began operating in San Francisco in 2010, ride hailing didn’t really begin growing until 2014. But the other thing that happened in 2014 was a huge drop in gasoline prices — prices fell by 50 percent in some areas. This isn’t even mentioned in the paper even though that drop could have most of the same effects the paper attributes to ride hailing. Continue reading

Sympathy for the Devil

An article in last week’s New York Times joins others in asking us to sympathize with the beleaguered transit industry, whose ridership has dropped every year since Uber and Lyft arrived on the scene. The article notes that Uber and Lyft subsidized the 5.6 billion rides they carried last year to the tune of $2.7 billion, or almost 50 cents a ride.

“The risks of [transit] privatization are grave,” the Times article warns. Uber and Lyft are taking “a privileged subset of passengers away from public transit systems” which “undermines support for public transportation.”

What the article doesn’t say is that, in order to carry 9.6 billion riders last year, public transit demanded more than $50 billion in subsidies from taxpayers, or more than $5 per ride. In other words, transit subsidies per rider are more than ten times greater than Uber and Lyft subsidies. Continue reading

If You Can’t Beat Them, Outsubsidize Them

Aiming to compete directly with Uber and Lyft, Oregon’s Lane County Transit District (LTD) has started an app-based bus service in Cottage Grove, which is 22 miles south of Eugene. LTD says that it is making transportation “affordable” because it charges only $1 for the door-to-door service, whereas Uber and Lyft would charge far more.

Called the Connector, the bus service costs riders just $1 to and from anywhere within the Cottage Grove city limits. LTD actually contracts out the service to South Lane Wheels, which is run by the city of Cottage Grove and which already was providing such a service for $3 a ride for up to three miles and roughly a dollar a mile beyond that. Cottage Grove is small enough that no trips within the city limits are three miles long, but South Lane Wheels, unlike the Connector, will go outside the city limits.

According to the city of Cottage Grove’s profile in the National Transit Database, fares collected by South Lane Wheels cover less than 6 percent of its costs. That means the average ride cost taxpayers more than $32 in 2017. Now LTD is adding its own subsidies to those rides. Continue reading

Analyzing Transit’s Decline

Ride-hailing services are not the principle cause of transit ridership decline, according to a new report from TransitCenter, a New York-based transit cheerleading group. This is based on a survey of 1,700 people in seven different urban areas.

Comparing the results with a similar survey from three years before, the group found a large increase in automobile ownership and that people who increased the number of trips they took by auto decreased the number of trips they took by transit. However, people surveyed who increased their use of ride-hailing services actually increased transit ridership, so TransitCenter concluded that increased auto ownership, not ride hailing, is the cause of transit’s problems.

A major problem with the study is that the people surveyed were not randomly selected — if they were, most of them wouldn’t have been transit riders. The amount of self-selection in the survey biases the results and says little about why the people who weren’t selected for the survey don’t ride transit — and their reasons may be completely different from those who were selected. Continue reading

New York Centrally Plans Ride Hailing

Responding in part to the specious claims that ride hailing is increasing urban congestion, New York’s city council voted last week to limit the number of ride-hailing drivers. The council also voted to impose minimum-wage requirements on Uber, Lyft, and other companies even though they contend that their drivers are contractors, not employees.

The Antiplanner is sympathetic to taxi companies who feel their industry has a competitive disadvantage because it is more heavily regulated than Uber and Lyft. I’m not at all sympathetic to the transit industry that gets $50 billion a year in subsidies — that’s around $5 per trip.

Chiropractic for children is painless except when there is an advantage of taking my review here tadalafil india oral jelly. You can orden 50mg viagra even get generous cash for laptop even if it is not working at all. Some people want to indulge in sexual activities but this is a cialis super active completely wrong thinking a normal size of a grape with very little pulp and a big seed. Kamagra 100mg gives desirable results when sexually aroused in 15-30 minutes. best online viagra The solution for taxi drivers is to deregulate the taxis, not to more heavily regulate ride hailing. The minimum-wage requirement is particularly objectionable because, as near as I can tell, minimum-wage laws don’t apply to taxi drivers because they, too, are independent contractors. Continue reading

Demonizing Ride Hailing

Lyft and Uber are increasing traffic by 180 percent, claims an arithmetically challenged study of ride hailing. As a result, reports NPR, ride hailing is adding to congestion. Moreover, says the study itself, ride hailing is inequitable and less sustainable than transit.

The study does have some useful numbers, but it was written by Bruce Schaller, a long-time transit advocate who obviously has a bone to pick about ride hailing. In reality, the study offers no real evidence that ride hailing is increasing congestion or that it is otherwise a serious problem for anyone but taxi companies and transit agencies. For them, it is a serious problem.

Schaller calculates that ride hailing grew from 1.90 billion trips in 2016 to 2.61 billion in 2017, for a net growth of 710 million rides. In those same years, transit ridership declined by 255 million rides. So, if only 36 percent of ride-hailing users would otherwise have taken transit, then ride hailing is responsible for 100 percent of the decline in transit ridership. Continue reading

Is Ride Hailing the Hero or the Villain?

As the Washington Metro system remains in poor shape despite months of trains delayed for maintenance in 2017, the Washington Post is attempting to demonize ride-sharing companies for increasing congestion. DC ride hailing has quadrupled in the last three year, which is “probably” increasing vehicle trips and, by implication, traffic congestion. Note that the paper offers no real evidence that this is true.

What is true is that taxi ridership is down by 31 percent and Metro ridership is down 11 percent since 2015. Does that necessarily translate into more congestion? Certainly, substituting an Uber vehicle for a taxi adds nothing to congestion. And substituting a Lyft vehicle for a transit ride adds to congestion only if the trip takes place during congested periods of the day.

The frequent claims that ride hailing is increasing congestion come from a Boston study that found that 40 percent of ride hailers might otherwise have taken transit. The study also found that most ride hailing takes place after 7 pm, but that 40 percent of weekday ride hailing takes place during rush hours. Forty percent of 40 percent is 16 percent, which means that ride hailing does add some vehicles to the road during rush hour, but not as many as suggested by various media reports. Continue reading

Ride-Hailing a Positive, Not a Negative

A new study from Boston has been heralded as “proof” that ride-hailing systems such as Uber and Lyft are making congestion worse. Indeed, the survey of 944 people using these services found that “over 15 percent of ride-hailing trips are adding cars to the region’s roadways during the morning or afternoon rush hours.” However, the study doesn’t estimate exactly how many cars are added, and it might be fairly small compared to the total that are already there.

In fact, the study’s other conclusions are far more interesting, some of them unintentionally. About 42 percent of the 944 people surveyed said that, if ride-hailing were not available, they would have taken transit. Since a previous survey in California found that only a third of ride-hailers would have taken transit, this latest survey suggests that ride hailing is having an even bigger impact on transit that previously thought.

The study also found that only 12 percent out of that 42 percent of people who otherwise would have taken transit were traveling during rush hours. Thus, more than two-thirds of ride-hailing takes place during non-rush hours and isn’t contributing to congestion. Continue reading

The Last Mile May Hasten the End for Transit

Amtrak has agreed with Lyft to cooperate to allow the railroad’s passengers to order a Lyft ride from Amtrak’s own app. Dallas transit riders can call Uber to get them from a transit station to their final destination. A town in New Jersey is offering the same service to New Jersey Transit riders.

Transit agencies have long known that their transit vehicles usually can’t reach the final destinations for every rider, something known as the last-mile problem. Now, some of them see Uber and Lyft as the solution to that problem.

This is going to bite them in the end. A century and a half ago, river boat companies thought that railroads would solve their last mile problem. It never occurred to them that the railroads would soon be competing against them by building along the rivers. Within a few decades, the river boats were out of business. Continue reading