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Transit’s Declining Importance

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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The steady decline in transit ridership, combined with the growth of driving, is revealed in passenger-mile data published by the Department of Transportation. The table below shows changes in transit’s share of motorized travel for the nation’s 25 largest urban areas. Outside of these areas, transit’s share declined by more than 10 percent in Sacramento, San Jose, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Charlotte, among many others.

Urbanized Area20162017Change
New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT11.6%11.5%-1.0%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA1.9%1.8%-4.7%
Chicago, IL-IN3.6%3.4%-5.5%
Miami, FL1.1%1.1%-2.5%
Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD2.8%2.4%-11.2%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX0.6%0.5%-4.9%
Houston, TX0.7%0.7%-2.0%
Washington, DC-VA-MD3.5%3.2%-9.3%
Atlanta, GA0.9%0.9%-6.7%
Boston, MA-NH-RI2.9%2.7%-6.5%
Detroit, MI0.4%0.4%-0.7%
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ0.6%0.7%14.3%
San Francisco-Oakland, CA7.1%6.6%-7.0%
Seattle, WA3.4%3.4%1.2%
San Diego, CA1.4%1.3%-7.1%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI1.1%1.1%-1.7%
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL0.4%0.3%-12.9%
Denver-Aurora, CO1.7%1.6%-1.4%
Baltimore, MD2.3%2.3%-2.0%
St. Louis, MO-IL0.7%0.6%-10.3%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA0.5%0.4%-8.2%
Las Vegas-Henderson, NV1.0%0.9%-3.0%
Portland, OR-WA2.3%2.3%-0.1%
Cleveland, OH0.8%0.7%-11.7%
San Antonio, TX0.7%0.6%-3.7%

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Cars Getting More Energy-Efficient

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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The average car on the road used 2,939 British thermal units (BTUs) per passenger mile in 2016, according to the recently released Transportation Energy Data Book. This is the first time since the Department of Energy began keeping track that BTUs per passenger mile for cars has fallen below 3,000. It compares with 4,102 BTUs per passenger mile for transit buses.

Click image to download a 14-MB PDF of this book. Click here to download all or individual tables in the form of Excel spreadsheets.

Actually, according to the latest data book, BTUs per passenger mile fell to 2,998 in 2015. But the previous edition of the data book had reported 3,034; the latest edition revised the number slightly downward. Continue reading →

January Transit Ridership Drops 4.4%

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Nationwide transit ridership in January 2019 was 4.4 percent lower than the same month in 2018, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Transit Administration. Ridership fell for every major mode, including commuter rail (-0.6%), heavy rail (-4.9%), light rail (-0.5%), streetcars (-2.6%), and buses (-4.5%). January had the same number of work days in 2018 and 2019, so that wasn’t a factor in the decline for the month.

Year-over-year ridership (February through January) fell by 2.2 percent, and also fell for every major mode: -0.1% commuter rail, -2.7% heavy rail; -1.0% light rail; -1.3% streetcars, and -2.1% buses. Ridership did grow by 44 percent in January and 20 percent for the year for the minor mode that the FTA calls “hybrid rail,” meaning Diesel-powered light rail. It grew mainly because of the opening of a new line in Oakland.

January ridership fell in 33 of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas, and year-over-year ridership fell in 38 of them. Only seven of the top fifty urban areas enjoyed ridership growth both in January and in the February-January year: Houston, Indianapolis, Austin, Providence, Nashville, Richmond, and Raleigh. Continue reading →

The Deflating Bubble

By | | Housing, Useful Data
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According to data released last week by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, home prices have peaked and are beginning to decline in many urban areas. Since 2018 prices in some urban areas had grown to be greater than at their peak in the 2006 bubble, it is fair to say that we have seen another bubble inflate and begin to deflate.

The above chart shows home price indices adjusted for inflation using GDP deflators for six metropolitan areas whose prices have been made volatile by growth management. Late-2018 prices in San Francisco and Seattle (as well as San Jose and some other areas) were considerably higher than in 2006, even after adjusting for inflation. Now they appear to be declining. Continue reading →

2018 Transit Ridership Down 2.0 Percent

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Transit ridership in 2018 was 2.0 percent less than in 2017, according to the December 2018 monthly data released by the Federal Transit Administration last Friday. Led by a 2.5 percent decline in heavy-rail ridership, total rail ridership actually declined by more than bus ridership: 2.1 percent vs. 2.0 percent.

The 2018 decline follows three straight years of previous losses, resulting in a total 8.5 percent fall since 2014. Between 2017 and 2018, ridership declined in 35 of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas, and since 2014 it declined in all but four: Houston, Seattle, Las Vegas, and Raleigh.

In November’s ridership report, the Antiplanner noted that commuter-rail numbers for Boston, New York, and a few other cities appeared to be incomplete, resulting in an apparent 15 percent decline in total commuter-rail ridership from November 2017. The December release corrects those data, revealing that total commuter-rail ridership in November didn’t fall at all, but it didn’t really increase either, gaining less than 0.05 percent. Commuter rail fell by 0.2 percent in December and was flat for the year as a whole. Continue reading →

November Transit Ridership Down 5.3%

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Transit ridership in November 2018 was 5.3 percent lower than in the same month of 2017, according to data (7.4-MB Excel spreadsheet) released by the Federal Transit Administration yesterday. Both buses and rail lost more than 5 percent of their riders. These declines are in spite of November having the same number of work days in both years.

The first eleven months of 2018 saw 2.6 percent fewer riders than the same months in 2017. Contrary to claims that bus ridership is declining but rail is not, rail ridership actually declined more in 2018 than bus ridership.

However, it is worth noting that some of the commuter rail numbers are preliminary estimates that don’t look right. Though commuter rail has been doing better than most other modes in previous months, the November report indicates a 15 percent decline from November 2017. Supposedly, Boston commuter ridership fell by 45%, New York’s Metro North, Philadelphia DOT, and commuter lines in Connecticut, south Florida, and San Diego all lost 33 to 35%, and Los Angeles lost 25%. Yet other commuter-rail lines seem unaffected. If these numbers turn out to be in error, I’ll post an update here as soon as possible. Even without commuter rail, heavy rail and light rail both declined, though not by quite as much as bus. Continue reading →

2017 Highway Statistics

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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The Federal Highway Administration has begun posting Highway Statistics for 2017. Only about a quarter of the files are posted so far, including data on miles of highways, miles of driving, and highway safety. Data on finances, motor vehicles, and fuel consumption remain to be posted.

Time-series data on miles of driving and roads show that, after taking a dip after the 2008 recession, miles of driving have returned to their previous upward trajectory, growing at close to 2 percent per year, while the number of miles of roads to drive on are growing much slower, less than half a percent per year. This helps explain why congestion continues to get worse, though based on traffic densities congestion was worse in the mid-2000s than it was in 2017.

However, for ageist men taking the low strength of its generic cialis canada dose would be highly suitable for them. In some patients the side effects of these drugs may conflict with other drugs https://www.unica-web.com/archive/2013/competition/franticjury.html order cheap viagra and do more harm to the user. Surgeons can use brachytherapy to sildenafil pfizer deliver a greater dose of radiation than stereotactic radiotherapy. Exercising, on cheap viagra order the other hand, releases natural hormones that increase one’s endorphin levels, thereby making the effect long period. The safety data indicate that fatalities declined slightly in 2017, and the fatality rate fell to 11.5 per billion vehicle miles. That’s higher than the 10.7 recorded in 2014 but much lower than the 48.5 fatalities per billion vehicle miles in 1970. Rural roads are more dangerous that urban roads, averaging 18 vs. 8 fatalities per billion vehicle miles. Continue reading →

October Transit Ridership Declined 0.8%

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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October 2018 transit ridership declined 0.8 percent from October 2017, according to the latest monthly data release by the Federal Transit Administration. This decline is in spite of the fact that October had one more work day in 2018 than in 2017. Ridership in the year to date (January-October) was 2.2 percent less than the same months of 2017.

Ridership declined for all major modes, including buses (-1.5%), commuter rail (-2.4%), heavy rail (-1.5%), and light rail (-2.1%). Streetcar and hybrid rail ridership grew due to the opening of new lines, but these modes are insignificant both nationally and locally. Nationally, ridership has declined in eleven of the last twelve months, the exception being July when New York City ridership had recovered from many maintenance-caused delays in 2017.

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Home Sizes and Housing Affordability

By | | Housing, Useful Data
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The median number of rooms in an American home increased slightly from 5.4 in 2007 to 5.5 in 2017. Moreover, there seems to be some correlation between the median number of rooms and housing affordability.

The American Community Survey doesn’t ask people the size of their homes in square feet, probably because it assumes most people don’t know. But it does ask how many rooms are in their homes. Survey directions specify that “Rooms must be separated by built-in archways or walls that extend out at least 6 inches and go from floor to ceiling.” People are to “include bedrooms, kitchens, etc.” but “exclude bathrooms, porches, balconies, foyers, halls, or unfinished basements.”

This can be misleading because many homes built since World War II have open floorplans, which usually means the kitchen, dining room, and living room are all one big room. By census definitions, a three-bedroom, open-floorplan home would have four rooms, while a three-bedroom, traditional house would have six rooms even if both have the same number of square feet. The best we can hope for is that the ratio of open- to closed-floorplan homes is about the same in different parts of the country, which seems unlikely. Continue reading →

August Transit Ridership Drops 1.7%

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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Nationwide transit ridership in August 2018 was 1.7 percent below the same month in 2017. Heavy rail dropped by 1.5 percent; light rail by 2.3 percent; buses by 1.9 percent; and streetcars by 11.2 percent, according to monthly data released last Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. Commuter rail gained 0.5 percent and hybrid rail gained 34.1 percent, mainly due to the opening of a new line of that type in Oakland.

Transit ridership had grown slightly in July, mainly because of depressed 2017 ridership due to New York City’s “summer of Hell” (meaning the partial closure of New York City’s Penn Station) and Washington DC’s “SafeTrack” program, both of which caused many transit delays. Although the Penn Station closures continued through August, 2017, the improved conditions in August 2018 weren’t enough to prevent New York urban area August ridership from declining by 0.5 percent.

August ridership declined in 36 of the nation’s top 50 urban areas. Ridership grew 27 percent in Houston, mainly because it had been depressed in August 2017 by Hurricane Harvey, which pretty much shut down the city for the last week of the month. It grew by a paltry 0.4 percent in Washington due to being depressed by the SafeTrack program in 2017. Continue reading →