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Platitudes Won’t Solve Metro’s Problems

By | | Transportation
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The Washington City Paper asked “thirteen riders, advocates, and experts” how to fix the Washington Metro Rail system. Former Metro general manager Dan Tangherlini and former DC DOT director Gabe Klein offered banalities about “putting the customer first.”

Smart-growth advocate Harriet Trepaning thinks Metro “needs a different kind of leader,” as if changing the person at the top is going to keep smoke out of the tunnels and rails from cracking. She admits that “I don’t think we’ve been straight with anybody, including ourselves or our riders, about what it really takes to [keep the rails in a] state of good repair.” But her only solution is to have “a dedicated source of revenue,” i.e., increase local taxes for a system that already costs state and local taxpayers close to a billion dollars per year.

Coalition for Smarter Growth director Stewart Schwartz and former APTA chair Rod Diridon also want to throw money at it. Others dodge the money question and suggest that Metro do all sorts of things that it can’t afford and doesn’t have any incentive to do anyway.

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Self-Driving Cars in the News

By | | Transportation
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60 Minutes covered self-driving cars last Sunday and CBS News took a look at Mercedes’ vision of the car of the future. General Motors, which cut its R&D when it went bankrupt in 2008, now plans to get into self-driving cars in a big way.

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Tight-lipped Apple is rumored to be developing a self-driving car; at least, it is meeting the California DMV about getting a license for one. Toyota, which has been less enthusiastic about self-driving cars than many other companies, now promises to have them in the showrooms by 2020.

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Still Not Carrying Passengers

By | | Transportation
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Washington DC’s H Street streetcar ran down a police car last week. But, as the Washington Post headline notes, it’s “still not carrying passengers.”


Still in the testing stage a year after construction was supposedly complete. Wikimedia photo by Michael J.

The District Department of Transportation began testing the streetcar about a year ago, and the result was so many accidents that the DC council seriously considered scrapping the whole thing. Instead, it asked for an expert peer review by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA). Since APTA has never met a rail transit project it didn’t like, the review’s conclusion was pretty much predetermined.

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The Nation’s Worst-Managed Transit Agency

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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Eight years ago, the Antiplanner argued that San Jose’s Valley Transportation Authority was the nation’s worst managed transit agency, a title endorsed by San Jose Mercury writer Mike Rosenberg and transit expert Tom Rubin.

However, since then it appears that the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA or just Metro) has managed to capture this coveted title away from San Jose’s VTA. Here are just a few of Metro’s recent problems:

  1. Metro’s numerous service problems include a derailment in August that resulted from a flaw in the rails that Metro had detected weeks previously but failed to fix;
  2. Metro spent hundreds of millions of dollars on a new fare system but now expects to scrap it for lack of interest on the part of transit riders;
  3. One of Metro’s power transformers near the Stadium/Armory station recently caught fire and was damaged so badly that Metro expects to have most trains simply skip that station stop for the next several weeks to months;
  4. Metro’s fleet of serviceable cars has run so low that it rarely operates the eight-car trains for which the system was designed even during rush hours when all the cars are packed full;
  5. WMATA’s most recent general manager, Richard Sarles, retired last January and the agency still hasn’t found a replacement, largely due to its own ineptitude;
  6. Riders are so disgusted with the system that both bus and rail ridership declined in 2014 according to the American Public Transportation Association’s ridership report;
  7. Metro was so unsafe in 2012 that Congress gave the Federal Transit Administration extra authority to oversee its operations;
  8. That hasn’t fixed the problems, so now the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) wants Congress to transfer oversight to the Federal Railroad Administration, which supposedly has stricter rules.

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Maryland DOT Cooked the Books

By | | Transportation
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You may want to sit down for this, but it is finally becoming obvious to everyone that the Maryland Department of Transportation and its consultants overestimated ridership on the proposed Purple light-rail line. Even the pro-Purple Line Washington Post is skeptical of the numbers. Of course, this is only after Governor Hogan appears to have signed off on the line.

As the Antiplanner pointed out in a review of the proposed low-capacity rail line, the projected first-year ridership of 58,800 people per weekday is more than any single light-rail line outside of Los Angeles and Boston–and rail lines in those cities serve centers with far more jobs than are found on the entire Purple Line. The line that is most comparable to the 16-mile Purple Line is New Jersey’s 17-mile Hudson-Bergen line, which serves an area whose population density is four times greater and has far more jobs than that along the Purple Line, yet the Hudson-Bergen line carries just 44,000 riders per weekday (p. 9). The Antiplanner also pointed out that light-rail planners almost always overestimate ridership, and Maryland in particular has a poor track record with its lines in Baltimore (p. 8).

Hogan’s Secretary of Transportation, Peter Rahn, apparently didn’t read the Antiplanner’s report, as he told the Post that he was “comfortable” with the numbers because “the FTA was involved, and they were acceptable to them.” Of course, the FTA rarely questions any numbers given to them by transit agencies. What Rahn was really doing, of course, was shifting the blame to someone else for not doing the job he should have done.

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2014 Commuting Data

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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In 1960, 12.1 percent of American workers went to work by transit, which was then largely privately owned. Despite (or because of) public takeover of almost every transit system in the country, transit’s share steadily declined to 4.7 percent in 2000. Then, in 2010, it crept up to 4.9 percent. The 2014 American Community Survey found that it has increased still further to 5.2 percent.

Since 2000, the increase in transit’s share has come at the expense of carpooling, which fell from 12.6 percent to 9.2 percent in 2014. Biking and walking also fell slightly from 3.4 to 3.3 percent. Driving alone, however, grew from 73.2 to 76.5 percent. So the increase in transit’s share did not translate to a reduction in the number of cars on the road. Indeed, using census carpool data and assuming that “5- or 6-person carpools” have an average of 5.5 people and “7-or-more-person carpools” have 7 people, there were 104.2 million cars commuting to work in 2000, 110.8 million in 2010, and 117.6 million in 2014.

One intriguing table (B08141) shows commuting data by the number of cars in the household. Nationally, about 4.5 percent of workers live in households with no cars. Of these, about 41.5 percent took transit to work, 20.4 percent drove alone, and 11.3 percent carpooled.

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Volkwagen’s Disgrace

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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The Environmental Protection Agency says Volkswagen programmed the emissions control systems on 482,000 cars it sold in the U.S. to work only when they were being tested by air quality regulators. Included are Diesel versions of the Jetta, Golf, Passat, Beetle, and Audi A3 sold between 2009 and 2015. When they weren’t being tested, the cars got better fuel mileage but spewed nearly 40 times more nitrogen oxides into the air. (There’s no reports that other pollutants increased.) Far from denying the accusation, Volkswagen has apologized and halted sales of the offending cars.

Volkswagen (which also makes Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, and several other brands that are not sold in the U.S.) had hopes of dramatically increasing its market share in the United States. But this news is a black mark on the company, both from a public relations view and a penalty view, as fines could be as high as $18 billion. As one industry observer says, “this is a disaster of monumental proportions” for the company, whose share price has fallen more than 20 percent since the EPA announcement.

While the Antiplanner has admired Volkswagen for its pioneering work with self-driving cars, the truly sad part is that this may perpetuate American resistance to Diesel power. Based on research by MIT scientists, it is likely that three simple technologies will allow auto manufacturers to cost-effectively meet Obama’s 54.5 mpg target by 2025: streamlining, use of aluminum in place of steel (carbon does even better but is far more costly), and Diesel engines, which are popular in Europe but not so well regarded here. While Diesels aren’t absolutely critical to meeting the fuel-economy targets, they are more cost-effective than most alternatives.

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Congressional Update

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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The law that authorizes the federal government to collect gas taxes and spend them on highways and transit last expired in July. Normally, Congress extends the law for six years, but it is currently gridlocked and so in July it extended it through the end of October.

The Senate offered a six-year bill, but only had enough money to fund it for three years. Lacking a similar bill, the House passed the three-month extension and the Senate went along.

Now, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee is rumored to have a six-year bill, or possibly a three-year bill. A minor stumbling block is that Republicans were proposing to cut spending for bicycles, which left Democrats incensed. A bigger stumbling block is that there is still no consensus about where the money is going to come from to cover the $12 billion to $15 billion annual deficits in the bill, as Congress is not willing to either raise gas taxes or reduce spending.

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Union Pacific Plays Hardball

By | | Transportation
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The big news in the railroad industry is that no one expects the railroads can meet the Congressionally imposed December 31 deadline to install positive train control, yet Congress has so far been unwilling to extend the deadline. Unless it does so, Union Pacific says it will stop allowing any passenger trains on its rails starting January 1. That means an end to many Amtrak trains as well as some commuter trains in California, Illinois, and elsewhere.

Positive train control would force trains to stop to prevent collisions if the train driver failed to act. Congress passed this law in 2008 after a horrific crash between a commuter train and a Union Pacific freight train in Los Angeles. The commuter train operator was apparently text messaging and missed a red light, resulting in the crash. The law requires the use of positive train control on all rail lines that carry passenger trains and/or toxic gases.

Unfortunately, says transportation expert Steve Ditmeyer, the problems that beset the railroads are partly their own fault. Ditmeyer points out that Burlington Northern installed positive train control on 250 miles of its track in the late 1980s and found that, if positive train control were designed to completely replace existing signal technologies, the costs would be partly offset by the reduction in signal costs while the benefits would not only include safety but a 25 percent increase in the capacity of single-track rail lines. The result was a three-to-one benefit-cost ratio. Unfortunately, rather than installing the technology over its entire railroads, a new BN president decided to focus his attention on merging with the Santa Fe.

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Back in the Air Again

By | | Housekeeping, Transportation, Urban areas
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