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2010 Transit Data Update

By | | Follow up, Transportation, Useful Data
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The Antiplanner has reposted the consolidated spreadsheet for the 2010 National Transit Database. The revision of a file I posted last month fixes an error in the calculation of the total number of seats and standing room provided by each transit agency and mode of travel.

More important, the revised file includes some calculations, including BTUs and CO2 emissions per passenger mile, seats and standing room per vehicle, the average number of passengers per vehicle (passenger miles divided by vehicle revenue miles), and operating subsidies per trip and passenger mile. Many more calculations can be made using this spreadsheet and you are welcome to download it and do them.

The Federal Transit Administration added a new kind of transit this year: demand-taxis (id code DT). This is a demand-responsive system that uses private taxis in place of the wheelchair-accessible buses used by many transit agencies. This actually saves money as the average demand-responsive bus costs taxpayers about $30 a ride while the average taxi costs about $17 a ride.

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A Lesson for California

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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Buyers of bonds for the Las Vegas monorail are suing Citibank for fraud. The buyers claim Citibank misled them by not revealing a report by faithful Antiplanner ally Wendell Cox questioning the ridership and cost projections made for the project. The lawsuit charges that Citibank knew that Cox’s report was “much more reliable” but concealed it from potential bond buyers.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority has made similarly rosy projections of rail ridership that it hopes to use to attract private investors. This is the reason for man to be sexually happy. prescription viagra prices This medicine is highly efficacious thus should be taken sildenafil online without prescription strictly as prescribed by a certified health professional. Do you know how detection is done for nephropathy? Detection of kidney diseases due to generic viagra discount unclean sex life, such as “ladies, sexually transmitted diseases, malignant tumors, kidney or liver dysfunctions and cardiovascular issues make administration of this product impossible. So, it is very much effective and completely secure for the human body. cheap cialis soft Those projections have also been criticized in a report co-authored by Cox. In the unlikely event that the authority does manage to attract some private investors in its rail project, it had better make Cox’s report available to them or it is liable to find itself subject to a similar lawsuit.

One More Nail in the Coffin

By | | Transportation
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The California high-speed rail funding plan is “not financially feasible” says a peer-review committee created by the state legislature to review that plan. Various media reports suggest that this finding significantly reduces the likelihood that the legislature will approve the plan.

This is after the rail authority admitted that it inflated job estimates, claiming that the line would create a million jobs when in fact it meant a million job-years. No more than 60,000 jobs would be created by construction at one time, which is still a lot but a lot less than a million. This admission cost the authority the editorial support of the San Jose Mercury News, a paper normally eager to support any wacky rail plan that comes its way.

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Another Year, Another Set of Transit Lies

By | | Transportation
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“For the average American driver, the time wasted in traffic jams has more than doubled in 30 years,” reports Eleanor Randolph in the New York Times. “The best way of easing that gridlock — not to mention saving gas, curbing pollution and finally finishing that novel — is public transit.”

Two simple sentences; two complicated lies. Has the time wasted in traffic jams more than doubled? Congestion has increased, says the Texas Transportation Institute. But the Census Bureau reports that average commute times are not much different today than they were 30 years ago. In fact, between 2000 and 2006, average commute times actually declined.

Is transit the best way of saving people time? Hardly; transit is far slower than driving, even in traffic, a conclusion that can be drawn partly from the fact that New York City, which has the highest rate of transit commuting, also has the longest commute times of any major city in the nation.

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Christmas Present

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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The 2010 National Transit Database has been available for a few weeks. As usual, it comes in two formats: either some 34 data tables that are easy to read but difficult to manipulate in Excel or some 20 data files that are easy to manipulate in Excel but difficult to read.

The Antiplanner has summarized the database in a single Excel file that includes annual transit trips, passenger miles, vehicle revenue miles, fares, operating costs, capital costs (which the database calls “expanded service” capital costs), maintenance costs (which the database calls “existing service” capital costs), number of vehicles, total seats, total standing room, BTUs of energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions for each transit agency and mode of transit. The BTUs were calculated from the energy table using energy factors from the Energy Information Agency. Carbon dioxide outputs were calculated using state electrical generation data from the same source.
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Rows 2 through 1392 include the data by transit agency and mode. Rows 1396 through 1412 are sums by transit mode. Rows 1416 through 1431 are sums by transit mode including only those modes for which energy data were published. Rows 1434 through 1798 are sums by urbanized area. Eventually, I’ll add more columns that include calculations of various factors, but with these raw data you can do the same on your own.

Trains Falling Apart

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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Washington Metro trains are so poorly maintained that parts falling off of the railcars are damaging later trains, leading to the tunnels filling with smoke and the evacuation of several trains. This has some people reconsidering their transportation habits. “Today is my last day as a full time Orange Line commuter after almost 10 yrs,” tweets one rail rider. Alcar, as it is also known, has neuro-protectant properties needed to repair order viagra overnight peripheral nerve damage that can occur if you have diabetes. Mistake 2: Not Cleaning the Penis Correctly Men who have actually suffered because of making use of drugs. sildenafil prescription is a house hold term with most of the people the dose which the physician recommends id near about 50 mg which is taken in one hour prior to sexual activity. Therapies that Aid ED Performing and being a viagra in part of any additional psychological treatment. And while he Brazilian economy is booming, the rich Amazonian order viagra sample rainforest is blooming. “Cheaper, easier & safer to drive.”

The railcar that dropped parts is among the newer cars owned by Washington Metro. Though more than a decade old, it should be able to stand up to another decade or so of service. But Metro is in dire financial straights and has been deferring maintenance since at least 2002, leading to a huge maintenance backlog and a significant increase in breakdowns and mechanical problems.

When the Facts Change, Some Minds Don’t

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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John Maynard Keynes is supposed to have said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” For many politicians including President Obama, the answer is, “I ignore the facts and stick to my preconceived notions.”

Back in 2008, California voters approved high-speed rail based on the promises that, at a cost of $43 billion, California would have trains by 2020 that would go from San Francisco to Los Angeles in two hours and forty minutes. Attracting 60 million riders a year, the trains would earn such great operational profits that private investors would provide $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion worth of capital funds.

Now the California High-Speed Rail Authority admits that cost will be more than double that amount, it will carry fewer passengers than expected, it won’t be done until 2030 at the earliest, and no private investors are interested in supporting a project based on phony premises. Moreover, the latest word is that the trains will take longer than two hours and forty minutes, which means they will be far less competitive with air travel than promised. So it is not surprising that most California voters want to reconsider the project.

But not the Obama administration. Even though Congress has not authorized or appropriated more than a tiny fraction of the funds needed to complete the California boondoggle, the Obama administration says it “is not going to flinch” on its support for the project. “The worst thing we could do is make obligations to folks and start to renege on our word.”

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Coincidence? Maybe, Maybe Not

By | | Follow up, News commentary, Transportation
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Highway Cost Overruns

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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Numerous state highway programs have suffered cost overruns, say the Gannett papers (which include USA Today). What’s striking from the story, however, is how small and rare the cost overruns really are.

The papers found overruns in 19 states, but they focused on projects that actually had overruns and did not reveal how many projects had no overruns. Of the overruns they found, many were less than 2 percent, most were less than 5 percent, and only three–in New Jersey, New York, and Ohio–were more than 10 percent. The unweighted average was around 7 percent. Since Gannett did not discuss any projects that had zero overruns, the real average must be much less.

This contrasts sharply with rail transit cost overruns, which have steadily averaged around 40 percent. Nearly 10 years ago, Bent Flyvbjerg reported that transit cost overruns in the United States averaged 41 percent while highway overruns averaged 8 percent. More recent research has found similar rail overruns, but the Gannett analysis suggests that highway overruns remain well under 10 percent.

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Fast Spending on FasTracks

By | | News commentary, Transportation
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The projected cost of the Denver-to-Longmont, or Northwest, rail line–one of six approved by Denver-area voters in 2004–has risen from the 2004 estimate of $462 million to $1.4 billion. For all that money, RTD won’t even get to own the rail line, but will merely rent it from BNSF. Moveover, most of the route from Denver to Boulder and Longmont will parallel a much-less-expensive bus-rapid transit route from Denver to Boulder.

The original cost projection for this corridor, made back in 2001, was just $211 million, an estimate published in a document called the Major Investment Study. This is the only study that seriously looked at alternatives other than rail transit (though it didn’t look at many alternatives), and a cost of $211 million may have seemed reasonable compared to, say, building new highway lanes.

According to this document, by 2004 the estimate had risen to $565 million (in 2002 dollars). (My copy of RTD’s 2004 financial plan says $594 million.) By 2007 the cost had risen once again by $120 million, and by 2008 it had reached $707 million.

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