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Monthly Archives: April 2018

Watch Out in Minnesota

By | | News commentary, Regional planning, Transportation
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If you are a critic of light rail, it would probably be a good idea to avoid the Minneapolis-St. Paul area for awhile. It turns out that light-rail operators in Minnesota can commit manslaughter with impunity.

Last July, a Metro Transit light-rail operator ran a red light in St. Paul and killed a 29-year-old man. Metro Transit tried to fire the operator, but the unions forced the agency to keep him on the payroll. If an auto driver killed someone after running a red light, they could be charged with vehicular manslaughter, but when the St. Paul city attorney contemplated charging the light-rail operator, she learned that trains are exempt from traffic codes unless “gross negligence” is involved.
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This exemption must have been passed by the state legislature when it was controlled by the Democratic Party (or, as they call it in Minnesota, the Democrat-Farm-Labor Party). At the present time, Republicans control the legislature, and one, Representative Linda Runbeck, has vowed to “close this loophole” as soon as possible. Until the legislature does so, be extra careful crossing a light-rail line if you are in the Twin Cities.

Is Texas Running Out of Farmlands?

By | | Regional planning
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An op-ed in the San Antonio Express-News warns that “asphalt is the last crop,” meaning once a farm is paved over, it can never be farmed again. “Every 10 years, Texas loses approximately 1 million acres of prime agricultural lands to development,” the article warns. Written by Bob McCan, who chairs the Texas Agricultural Land Trust, the article encourages farmers and ranchers to put their lands into conservation easements.

In case McCan hasn’t noticed, someone should tell him Texas is a big place. According to the USDA National Resources Inventory, it has nearly 138 million acres of private agricultural land, not counting 14 million acres of forest land, 3 million acres of federal land, and more than 2 million acres of “other rural land.” Fewer than 7 million acres of the state have been urbanized and only about 2 million more have been developed into such things as small settlements, rural roads, and railroads.

Of the 138 million acres of ag land, farmers grow crops on only about 24 million acres. The rest is range and pastureland. That 24 million is less than it was a few decades ago, but more because the per-acre yields of most crops are growing faster than the nation’s population than because any acres have been paved over. Continue reading →

Is Ride Hailing the Hero or the Villain?

By | | Transportation
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As the Washington Metro system remains in poor shape despite months of trains delayed for maintenance in 2017, the Washington Post is attempting to demonize ride-sharing companies for increasing congestion. DC ride hailing has quadrupled in the last three year, which is “probably” increasing vehicle trips and, by implication, traffic congestion. Note that the paper offers no real evidence that this is true.

What is true is that taxi ridership is down by 31 percent and Metro ridership is down 11 percent since 2015. Does that necessarily translate into more congestion? Certainly, substituting an Uber vehicle for a taxi adds nothing to congestion. And substituting a Lyft vehicle for a transit ride adds to congestion only if the trip takes place during congested periods of the day.

The frequent claims that ride hailing is increasing congestion come from a Boston study that found that 40 percent of ride hailers might otherwise have taken transit. The study also found that most ride hailing takes place after 7 pm, but that 40 percent of weekday ride hailing takes place during rush hours. Forty percent of 40 percent is 16 percent, which means that ride hailing does add some vehicles to the road during rush hour, but not as many as suggested by various media reports. Continue reading →

Big Changes at Amtrak

By | | Transportation
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A severe curtailment of charter trains. New restrictions on hauling private cars. Elimination of dining cars on some trains. Elimination of the Coast Starlight‘s Pacific Parlor Cars, which the Antiplanner called the only redeeming feature of Amtrak’s long-distance trains. Perhaps even phasing out long-distance trains completely.

These are some of the changes taking place under Amtrak’s latest CEO, Richard Anderson, a former Delta Airlines executive. Amtrak’s previous CEO, Wick Moorman, was in charge for only about a year and the main work he did was to shake up the executive suite to make it operate more efficiently. Anderson, however, seems more willing to take on sacred cows in the name of efficiency. If you love intercity passenger trains, however, the things he is doing are likely to alienate many of the company’s political supporters.

The long-distance trains are only the most obvious example. With them, Amtrak serves all but four states. Without them, it serves less than half the states. If less than half of the members of Congress support Amtrak, Amtrak disappears. Continue reading →

2017 National Household Travel Survey

By | | Transportation, Useful Data
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The average car carried 1.54 people in 2017 while the average SUV carried 1.84 people according to the just-released National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). That’s down slightly from 2009, when it was 1.59 and 1.92 respectively. Historically, auto occupancies have declined in parallel with the decline in household and family sizes; the 2009 survey reported a rare increase but the 2017 decline is not surprising.

The “explore data” button on the NHTS home page allows users to construct a huge variety of data tables. For example, I created a table showing miles of driving per driver by household income and urban area size. Annual miles of driving were roughly the same for all levels of income above $35,000 per year. In smaller urban areas, only people in households with incomes below $15,000 per year did significantly less driving, while people in households with incomes more than $150,000 did a little more driving. Variations by urban area size were small, though large urban areas with heavy rail had about 13 percent less driving than large urban areas without heavy rail; probably that result is driven by New York City.

Vehicle occupancies varied widely by trip purpose, ranging from 1.18 for work trips to 2.57 for recreation trips. However, occupancies seem to be independent of income. Continue reading →

What Does San Antonio Deserve?

By | | Transportation, Urban areas
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Another famous H.L. Mencken quote is, “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” The Antiplanner was reminded of this by a headline on the San Antonio Express-News editorial page declaring that San Antonio needs “a transit plan the city deserves.” According to the editorial writer, that plan involves a “rapid transit” system that will “entice people out of their vehicles,” “connect all parts of San Antonio,” and “truly free people from traffic.”

The editorial board must not think very highly of San Antonio. It apparently believes that San Antonio residents deserve to pay billions of dollars in taxes to build an expensive transit system that will be regularly used by less than 5 percent of the people. It also believes they deserve the huge traffic congestion that will accompany construction as well as the lies, cost overruns, and ridership shortfalls that are almost invariably associated with transit megaprojects.

It is also possible that the editorial board simply doesn’t know what it is writing about. For one thing, it seems to think that “rapid transit” means fast transportation. According to the American Public Transportation Association’s Transit Fact Book, rapid rail transit (also known as heavy rail) averages just 20 mph while rapid bus averages less than 11 mph. The average speed of auto driving in San Antonio is 33 mph, so rapid transit is not likely to persuade many to stop driving. Continue reading →

Rejoice in Transit’s Decline (plus new book)

By | | Transportation
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“Urban transit was developed for a kind of city that no longer exists,” says an op-ed in USA Today, “one in which most jobs were downtown and most residents lived near downtown.” For people who can’t or don’t want to drive, ride hailing makes much more sense than mass transit, so we should be happy to see transit (and the taxes we pay to subsidize it) decline.

The article also reveals the title of a new book that will be out this fall: Romance of the Rails: Why the Passenger Trains We Love Are Not the Transportation We Need. This book will provide the background needed to understand transit and intercity passenger trains today. Continue reading →

Home Price Data and Highway Update

By | | Housing, Transportation, Useful Data
2 Comments

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) has published home price index data through the fourth quarter of 2017. These data go back as far as 1975 for the states and many urban areas.

The Antiplanner has posted enhanced spreadsheets that use the raw data from the state and metropolitan area files to create charts like the one above showing housing trends. The metropolitan area spreadsheet allows users to create charts showing price indices in nominal dollars or dollars adjusted for inflation. The state spreadsheet only creates charts for inflation-adjusted indices. Continue reading →

Time for Public Land Recreation Fees

By | | Fish & wildlife, Public lands
6 Comments

NPR has an article about a serious problem that has an easy solution that no one wants to mention. The problem is that the number of hunters in the United States is declining, and since — under the Pittman-Robertson Act, a tax on guns and ammunition is one of the main source of conservation funding, money for conservation is also declining.

The article doesn’t mention some of the nuances of the problem. First, the real financial problem isn’t the declining number of hunters but the fact that America has a president who supports the Second Amendment. By comparison, when Obama was president and questioned widespread gun ownership, sales of guns and ammunition hit record levels, not because people were hunting but to safeguard and/or express their gun rights.

Second, the decline in hunters creates another problem at least as significant as the shortfall in revenues: a surplus of deer and other huntable wildlife. Deer in particular are overrunning much of the country. The animal most likely to kill you in rural areas is not a cougar or grizzly bear but a deer when you hit them with your car and they come flying through your windshield. Some areas also have too many elk and other huntable species. Continue reading →

Voters Leaning Against Nashville Rail Plan

By | | Transportation
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An April 12 and 13 survey of likely Nashville voters found that 62 percent, plus or minus 4 percent, say that — if the election were held the day of the survey — they would vote against the $9 billion Nashville transit plan. Since early voting has already begun for the election that is officially scheduled on May 1, the plan’s proponents may not have a chance to turn that around.

Early polls showed that most people supported the plan. I’d like to think that a January conference I spoke at helped turn things around. But the sex scandal that forced the unexpected resignation of Nashville’s mayor, who was the plan’s biggest proponent, probably had more to do with it.

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