Europe’s High-Speed Rail Not Sustainable

France opened two new high-speed rail lines last year, but they may be the last for awhile because the country is running out of cash to pay for them. A recent review by the European Court of Auditors seems to question whether any more high-speed rail lines should be built anywhere in Europe.

The audit reviewed 30 high-speed rail lines and found:

  • Construction costs averaged 25 million euros per kilometer (about $46 million per mile);
  • Much of this money was wasted because trains run at an average of just 45 percent of the design speed of the lines;
  • Cost overruns and delays are the norm rather than the exception: overruns averaged 78 percent and several lines have been delayed by more than a decade;
  • Benefits in many cases are negligible: many of the lines cost more than 100 million euros ($116 million) per minute of train time saved.

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The auditors cite an academic study that concluded that high-speed rail was a “success” if it carried 6 million passengers its first year rising soon to 9 million passengers. But this study wasn’t based on the profitability of the lines; instead, nearly all of the benefits it calculated went to business travelers who saved time by riding the trains. The study assumed that time to those travelers was worth 40 euros ($46 dollars) per hour. But if it is really worth that much, why aren’t the trains priced that high? Continue reading

Was This Fire Really Necessary?

News that a prescribed fire in Florida escaped control and burned 36 homes reminds me of a fire the Forest Service lit ten weeks ago near my home in central Oregon. To create a fuel break, the fire was set across a county road from the community of homes that forms the denser part of Camp Sherman.

Click on any image for a larger view.

Western forests are different from those in Florida, whose long growing seasons allow the rapid accumulation of flammable materials. The typical forest forest around Camp Sherman is ponderosa pine over knee-high (with some waist-high) shrubs, often with a few ponderosa pine seedlings in the mix. It takes many decades for enough fuels to collect to make these forests susceptible to major fires; according to a Forest Service report, less than 15 percent of national forests are of a type that needs frequent light fires (described as “historical fire regime I” in the report) and have had their vegetation significantly altered by management (“condition class 3”). Continue reading