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Paradox or Not?

By | | News commentary
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Every family, every company, every nation must decide how much to spend today and how much to save/invest for the future. The decisions they make reflect their internal discount rate, which is the rate (expressed as an annual percent) that they discount future benefits and costs.

In the case of the recent debt deal, Democrats want to spend more now and not worry about future costs, indicating they have high discount rates and value present consumption much more highly than the future. Republicans want to save now, which they hope would have the effect of leading private investors to invest that savings effectively. This suggests they have a lower discount rate and value the future more highly.

On the other hand, considering the climate change issue, liberals tend to want to reduce current consumption in order to protect the distant future, which suggests a low discount rate. Fiscal conservatives see the future as highly uncertain and prefer to increase current wealth, which sounds like they have a higher discount rate. (A true application of the “precautionary principle,” conservatives argue, would be to invest in things that have immediate returns, such as reducing malaria and other major diseases, with the expectation that society will be wealthier and better able to deal with climate change if and when it actually happens.)

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America 2050: Forget about the Forgotten Mode

By | | Follow up, Transportation
37 Comments

Half truths, innuendo, and pseudo-science form the basis of a recent response to the Antiplanner’s recent paper, Intercity Buses: The Forgotten Mode. The basic thesis of the response is that intercity buses have a role to play in a “balanced transportation system,” but they are “no replacement for high-speed rail.”

Of course, the Antiplanner never argued that buses were a replacement for true high-speed rail. But it did show that existing bus schedules in many corridors are faster, more frequent, and charge far lower fares than Amtrak in the same corridors. Of course, there is a “replacement” for high-speed rail: it is called “air travel” and it is far faster and costs about a fifth as much per passenger mile as Amtrak’s Acela.

In any case, America 2050 says the Antiplanner ignored “one of the most powerful arguments for rail: providing an alternative to highway congestion.” I didn’t address that argument in the paper on buses because, as I’ve shown before, it’s a stupid argument. Highways move about 85 percent of all passenger travel, and more than a quarter of all ton-miles of freight in this country. If they are congested, maybe we should relieve that congestion rather than spending hundreds of billions of dollars on an elitist rail network that won’t relieve congestion and won’t carry than a tiny fraction of the number of people (and none of the freight) moved on the highways.

But we can’t fix highway congestion, says America 2050: “providing additional road space does not solve congestion; in fact it creates additional demand for driving.” That’s another stupid argument for four reasons. First, my bus paper never advocated building new roads, and if asked, I would have suggested relieving congestion using congestion pricing of roads before building new capacity.

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John Charles Responds to Sam Adams

By | | Urban areas
32 Comments

Early this month, Portland broke ground on a hugely expensive light-rail bridge across the Willamette River, part of a $1.5 billion, 7.3-mile rail line to the Portland suburb of Milwaukie. This prompted faithful Antiplanner ally John Charles to write an article arguing that this is a “bridge to the last century.”

In response, Portland’s mayor, Sam Adams, wailed at a public meeting that “We’re under attack. Basic, impartial information is under attack” (click here for a 33-MB audio recording of the meeting; Adams’ comments are at 1:05:05, but the meeting is liberally littered with statements by public officials hostile to anyone who doesn’t share their utopian vision).

Adams called Charles’ article a “screed,” but what really raised Charles’ ire is the claim that Adams was on the side of “basic, impartial information.” So Charles replies with a barrage of “basic, impartial information” about the new light-rail line.

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Biketopia Is Mantopia

By | | News commentary, Transportation
68 Comments

Cyclists want to spend millions of dollars out of highway user fees to build new bicycle infrastructure, including bike paths and lanes. But a recent survey by a bicycle advocacy group found that the most important reason women don’t bike is not lack of infrastructure, but because it is not convenient for them to do so. As a Seattle blogger points out, women spend twice as much time doing housework as men (including the time spent cleaning men’s cycling clothes), they are twice as likely to do trip chaining (combining multiple destinations in one trip), and they are twice as likely to take children with them on their trips. All these things make it unlikely that building a few bike paths will get lots more women on two wheels.

Meanwhile, in Gainesville Florida, a cyclist challenged the head of the local Republican Party to a bicycle vs. car race. The car won by 45 minutes–probably because the race was a stacked deck, requiring participants to wear business clothing, make multiple stops, and carry such things as groceries and a 2×4 (which proved to be impossible).

Of course, once cyclists get legislation passed forcing all businesses to have showers available, there won’t be any need to wear business clothing on cycle trips. (However, the time required to shower and change might have to be counted against the cyclist.) Continue reading →

Senate Bill DOA

By | | News commentary, Transportation
4 Comments

Continue spending money at current levels that are far greater than revenues. Drain the Highway Trust Fund. Make a few token changes in the law to make it look like you are doing something. Then revisit all the issues in just two years because you are too chicken to make the hard decisions today.

That’s pretty much the outline of a transportation reauthorization presented by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee late last week. Really, this plan is just like the one the committee presented last May, except the new one would expire in just two years instead of the usual six.

Ironically titled, “Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century” or MAP-21–since it only moves ahead two years and makes no progress on the debates over funding sources and spending restraints–the plan exists only as a three-page outline, not the thousands of pages that would make up an actual bill.

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Henry J. Is Spinning in His Grave

By | | News commentary, Transportation, Urban areas
39 Comments

To find everything that is wrong with American transportation, you only need to look at the process for replacing the Interstate 5 crossing of the Columbia River. Planning for a new bridge or bridges between Portland and Vancouver began at least six years ago, and planners have so far spent well over $130 million without turning a single spade of dirt. The Antiplanner suspects planners are perfectly happy to spend as many highway dollars as possible on anything that doesn’t actually increase roadway capacity.

The current proposal calls for two double-deck bridges.

The bridge itself is expected to cost a little over $1 billion. But all the various government agencies that have jumped on the planning effort have managed to drive the cost up to $4 billion. A big part of this increase is the cost of light rail to Vancouver, including a special bridge or bridge deck for a rail line.

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The China Mystique Breaks Down

By | | News commentary, Transportation
16 Comments

At least 35 people killed in a Chinese high-speed rail crash–caused by lightning? This doesn’t make any sense at all. Electric rail technology is more than a hundred years old; how could China’s trains not be safeguarded against this common phenomenon?

Plus, the second train ran into the first train simply because the first train was stopped on the tracks. Hasn’t China heard of positive train control? American railroads, which typically run freight trains at around 45 mph, are required by law to implement PTC by 2015. The Chinese trains in question reach top speeds of 155 mph, and should have had positive train control installed before turning a single wheel.

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American Know-How: Get Less for More

By | | Transportation
41 Comments

Three years ago, Oregon politicians managed to get an earmark for an Oregon company to manufacture streetcars. Now it turns out those streetcars are–surprise!–more expensive than anticipated as well as delayed by at least five months.

For the original price of six cars, the company will make just five. Not to worry, says company president Chandra Brown: “You’re not getting less. I actually think you’re getting more. You’re getting a lot better quality vehicle, and you’re getting all the ancillary benefits from it being done here.”

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Obamacare Pseudoscience

By | | City planning, News commentary
67 Comments

Last week, the Antiplanner noted in passing a study that found that making people live in “walkable neighborhood” won’t make them any healthier. Since then the Antiplanner has encountered another research paper that found that “the effects of density and block size on total walking and physical activity are modest to non-existent, if not contrapositive.” It seems that anyone who looks at the relationship between urban design and health, other than committed smart-growth advocates, finds that there is no relationship.

So it is disappointing, but not surprising, that President Obama’s recently released National Prevention Strategy–which resulted from the so-called Obamacare legislation–focuses on redesigning the built environment. The Active Living portion of the strategy calls for “community design and development that supports physical activity. Sidewalks, adequate lighting, and traffic slowing devices (e.g., modern roundabouts) improve the walkability of communities and promote physical activity. Increasing access to public transportation helps people maintain active lifestyles. People are also more likely to use active modes of transportation (e.g., walking, biking) for their daily activities when homes, workplaces, stores, schools, health care facilities, and other community services are located within close proximity and neighborhoods are perceived as safe.”
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Although the Strategy includes footnotes for each of these claims, they only reference other publications recommending changes in the built environment–some of which were written by advocacy groups such as the Surface Transportation Policy Project–and not actual research showing that this is a worthwhile or cost-effective strategy. The Antiplanner is not an expert on health care, but if the rest of Obama’s health care package is as “scientific” as this, it appears we have turned our entire medical system to Lysenkoists. Next time you see a doctor, don’t be surprised if he or she gives you a prescription based on the latest fad (or campaign contribution) rather than the latest research.

Are Supertankers Worthwhile or Just PR?

By | | Wildfire
27 Comments

Due to budget cuts, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection–CalFire for short–is canceling its contract for exclusive use of two DC-10 supertankers. These supertankers are “perhaps [the] most effective tool” the agency has for fighting fires, says the news story.

That’s not just an exaggeration, it is probably completely wrong. When the Antiplanner was in forestry school, some four decades ago, the fire management professors were openly scornful of aerial firefighting. “The agencies use aerial tankers only because the press demands it,” they said. “They need the video to show on TV.”

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