Good News & Bad News about Fuel-Economy

If you like driving a big car or SUV, the good news about Obama’s new fuel-economy standards is that they won’t dictate what kind of car you will be able to buy in the future. If you want to buy a 15-mpg SUV, Detroit (or Aichi or Wolfsburg) will be free to make and sell you one.

The bad news is that the standards may make your car more expensive. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards are actually calculated as the mean of gallons per mile, not miles per gallon. So, as of 2016, for every 15-mpg model made by an auto maker, that company will have to make five models of cars that can go 50 mpg in order for its fleet to meet Obama’s new target. Since bringing each new model to market can cost billions of dollars, if there are not enough people who want to buy those fuel-efficient cars to cover their design costs, the company will have to add a share of those costs to your SUV.

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The High Cost of Rail Strikes Again

Add Austin’s Capital Metro to the list of transit agencies that have gotten themselves into serious financial trouble because they insisted on building an expensive rail transit line. After blowing $300 million on a commuter-rail line and other questionable improvements, Capital Metro is heavily in debt and lacks the resources to fund bus and other planned expansions.

High-cost transit: Scheduled to begin operating in March, the tracks are built, the vehicles are not yet paid for, the system isn’t running, and no one knows when service will begin.

Just a few years ago, the agency had $200 million in the bank. But its CEO considered that a liability, not an asset, because “everyone in town thought we were rich, and they were coming after it.” He argues that blowing a bunch of money on unnecessary projects was necessary to protect the agency’s assets.

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High-Speed Error Rate

Even for a famous transportation writer, it is amazing how many factual errors Tom Vanderbilt, the author of a book on traffic congestion, managed to pack into a single article in Slate. Is it because he ventured into a field beyond his expertise and is relying someone else’s erroneous data? Or is he being deliberately deceptive?

The Milwaukee Road’s Hiawatha was one of the nation’s first “high-speed trains,” but it began service in 1935, not in the 1920s. Otto Perry photo.

His thesis is that “trains are slower now than in the 1920s” because railroad technology “is worse now than it was in the early 20th century.” Both these statements are flat-out wrong: trains are faster today, and rail technology has been thoroughly revolutionized since the 1920s.

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Senate Democrats Want to Take Your Car

While House Transportation Committee Chair James Oberstar talks about spending a lot of money, the Senate transportation chair, John D. Rockefeller IV, has a different agenda: he wants to reduce people’s driving. He thinks the next transportation reauthorization bill should include goals of reducing per-capita driving, reducing transportation-related greenhouse emissions by 40 percent, and reduce the amount of freight carried on highways by 20 percent. (His actual goal is to increase non-highway freight by 10 percent, but since slightly less than a third of freight goes by highway, that works out to a 20 percent reduction in highway shipping.)

The Antiplanner has a few problems with these goals. First, several states, including Oregon and Washington, have set goals of reducing per-capita driving, but none have succeeded. Per-capita driving has declined only when gas prices dramatically increased (a 40-cent-per-gallon increase in gas taxes wouldn’t be enough) or incomes dramatically fell due to a recession.

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New Theme

The Antiplanner blog offers several themes — the WordPress term for general appearance — including Cars, Ocean, Trees, and Plain. Today I’ve added a new theme, OpenAir, which uses a photograph as a background. If it does not immediately appear when you visit this site, you can choose it from the list of themes on the sidebar.

Like the other themes, OpenAir was originally designed by someone else, in this case, by Richard Dows, an English web designer. I’ve modified it here and there and will probably tweak it more in the future. In addition, I expect I will change the photograph from time to time. I don’t really understand cascading style sheets, so my modifications are somewhat hit and miss.
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If this theme doesn’t work on your computer, you can go back to the Plain theme or one of the others. As always, I appreciate any feedback you may have.

APTA: Strategically Late?

Today the Antiplanner features a guest post from faithful ally Tom Rubin.

The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) publishes transit ridership data every quarter. According to APTA’s web site, “First quarter data are available about July 15 each year; second quarter about October 15; third quarter about January 15; and fourth quarter about April 20.”

July 15 is 106 days after the end of the first quarter. Maybe I’m just growing older, but I don’t recall it taking that long in the past to compile the data; after all, what is involved is having a lot of transit agencies fill out forms with three months of data for each of the modes they operate and get that to APTA. There are always some slowpokes, but that seems a bit much. In fact, I was looking at this page not all that many weeks ago and I could have sworn it said the delay was about two-and-one-half-months, not three-and-one-half.

So, falling back on my auditor training, I decided to search out other factoids that could cast some light on this.

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Amtrak President: High-Speed Rail “Unrealistic”

True high-speed rail — trains going 150 mph or more on newly built tracks — would be “prohibitively expensive” in the United States, says Amtrak President Joseph Boardman. Testifying before the Illinois House Railroad Industry Committee, Boardman said that it makes more sense to improve existing tracks so trains can run at up to 110 mph.

“It’s really not about the speed,” Boardman reportedly said. “It’s about reduced travel times and more frequency.” He added that 110 mph “is double the national speed limit” of 55 mph on highways. Apparently he hasn’t heard that this national speed limit was repealed a mere 22 years ago. (Or maybe he is privy to a plan to re-establish this limit.)

Few media reports about high-speed rail note that a top speed of 110 mph works out to an average speed, including scheduled stops, of just 60 to 75 mph. Between New York and Washington, Amtrak’s regular Northeast Corridor trains, for example, have top speeds of 110 but average 70 mph, whereas the Acela has a top speed of 135 but averages less than 85 mph.

At today’s speed limits, most people can easily average more than 50 mph on intercity freeways, including stops for gas and food, so rail’s advantage is not that great — especially when you consider that your car will go when you want it, will take you directly to your final destination, and will be available for sidetrips along the way.

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Reauthorization Next Year — Maybe

Reauthorization of federal transportation funding, scheduled for 2009, will probably be delayed until 2010, says Senator Mark Warner. Apparently, Congress has too many higher priorities to take care of this year.

Congress historically authorizes transportation funding (most of which comes out of federal gas taxes) for six years. This gives it an opportunity to change direction and gives members of Congress opportunities to raise campaign funds from interest groups whose businesses depend on federal funding.

One reason for the delay, as reported in Congressional Quarterly (on-line version not available), is that the House Transportation Committee’s computer can’t handle all of the earmarks that members want to put into the bill. The computer keeps crashing.

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Is Performance-Based Budgeting the Answer?

The state of California faces a $42 billion budget deficit, and a writer for the Sacramento Bee suggests that the solution is performance-based budgeting. In other words, set “clear and measurable goals and objectives” for each government program and “hold managers accountable” to those goals.

Sounds like a great idea . . . except the federal government already tried it and it didn’t work. In 1993, Congress passed the Government Performance Results Act (GPRA). In essence, GPRA directed every federal agency to set “results-oriented goals” and then to write annual reports revealing how well they met those goals. The only practical effect of this law is to add to the red tape that agency officials must deal with every year.

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Ranking the States

Someone asked the Antiplanner if anyone has ever ranked the restrictiveness of land-use regulation by state. I don’t know of any such ranking, but I pointed out that regulation has several dimensions. Spatial regulations try to control where development can take place. Time regulations effectively limit how quickly developments can take place.

Another time dimension has to do with how long regulations have been in place. An urban-growth boundary drawn last year isn’t as restrictive as one drawn thirty years ago. Finally, land-ownership patterns can effectively restrict development even if there are no overt legal restrictions.

Given that complication, here is my estimate of ranking, with states of roughly similar regulation grouped together. Any and all comments are welcome, especially if they can help make this ranking more precise.

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