Japan has test-run a mag-lev train at faster than 600 kilometers per hour, a fact that is ” further humiliating the US rail industry,” says Business Insider. As an American, I feel totally humiliated by this test.
After all, after spending more than $100 billion (about $350 million per mile) on infrastructure that will require millions of dollars of precision maintenance each year, Japan will have a Tokyo-Osaka train whose normal top speed of 500 kph will be barely 60 percent as fast as the cruising speed of a Boeing 737-600 and less than 55 percent as fast as the cruising speed of a Boeing 787. Compared with mag-lev, those airplanes require hardly any infrastructure: a few acres of approximately smooth runways, a few air terminals, and air traffic control.
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Unlike Japan’s maglev, which can only go where someone builds the expensive infrastructure it requires, America’s planes can go anywhere in the world across land or water. Unlike planes, which are in service today, Japan’s maglev won’t begin operating until 2027 at the earliest. Unlike the maglev, which could not possibly make any economic sense except in relatively short (300 miles or less) corridors that have more than 40 million people, America’s planes work over short or long distances and serve many communities with just a few hundred thousand residents.
JR Central, which wants to build the maglev line, says it can do so without government subsidies. Yet the government has already proposed to give it subsidies to “expidite the line’s construction,” just as the government has subsidized almost every high-speed rail line in Japan outside of the Tokyo-Osaka corridor. Meanwhile, America’s airlines receive only nominal subsidies, with airport and air traffic control subsidies amounting to less than $6 billion in 2012, or a penny per passenger mile. (I think we should end those subsidies, but if we do, it won’t have much effect on air travel.)
So what’s so humiliating about Japan’s maglev? As an American, the humiliating thing is that there are other Americans who fall for the argument that because some other country is wasting a hundred billion dollars on a transportation system that goes half as fast as America’s planes, we should waste at least that much money here. That only goes to demonstrate the failure of America’s educational system to help people gain the analytical skills they need to avoid being taken by con artists.
But it is so cool!!!
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Of course, once you have to pay a fare that is a “fair” portion of the construction/operation costs, I’m sure the “coolness” factor will diminish.
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Also, I guess despite traveling at 60% of an airplane’s velocity I imagine accidents on this line will have a similar casualty rate for airplane crashes.
“That only goes to demonstrate the failure of America’s educational system to help people gain the analytical skills they need to avoid being taken by con artists.”
No. That’s the success of America’s government schools. That’s their goal. They churn out people who don’t question the basic premise of government intervention in every facet of the economy. As I’ve mentioned here before years ago, schools teach students that the president is commander in chief of the economy. No lie.
Judging by the size and scope of American government, its schools are its greatest success story.
If you say you are patriotic or that the USA is the best nation on earth, you will be roundly attacked by the progressives for being arrogant, anti-foreigner. xenophobic, etc.
However, the same people who attack you for patriotism get incensed if the USA does not have the fastest trains, the largest ships, the most people in government housing , etc. because (as they inevitably say) the richest nation on earth should have all of the things the progressives want. We must have what every other nation has. Sounds a little arrogant, anti-foreigner and xenophobic to me.
I like how they claim they can build this out for less money than what Cali’s traditional HSR project will cost. More or less the same length routes for each and they both have mountains to cope with for the route I’m not sure if that shows how overly optimistic they are being or how inept the Cali HSR project folks are.
It’s true. Japan has plenty of room for new airports all over. They take just a few acres, here and there. It’s not like an airport requires any transit or highway infrastructure, either. And airports practically maintain themselves, unlike those messy trains.
I’m not sure what that shows, Ohai.. Both forms require what you talk about.
In the case at hand, Japan is looking to build yet another separate right of way on what is an already crowded corridor with an aging population ( aka traveling less + less time sensitive ). It would seem they would better served improving existing services and better utilizing existing capacity. For example, just as JAL and others pioneered using 747’s on their Osaka – Tokyo service, they could same with the A380. IIRC a one class config with that plane holds 750 – 900 people.
” Japan has plenty of room for new airports all over.”
Why would new airports need to be built “all over”? There are 46 in Japan already.
Have you ever ridden a Shinkansen? If you have, then you’ll understand how ridiculous it is to say that an airport requires only “a few acres.” Haneda, Tokyo’s smaller, more central airport, takes up about 3,500 acres. Even though it’s much closer than Narita, it’s still a 100USD cab ride from the center of Tokyo. The train stations are much more convenient.
Yep. And they have all been retired and replaced with smaller planes that are more efficient and cheaper to operate. The airlines have essentially ceded most of the market to the trains, and it’s no wonder. Once you factor in getting to and from the airport it’s much more convenient to take the train between Tokyo and Osaka. On cost it might be a wash–the Shinkansen Nozomi are not cheap.
Ohai,
I took your comment to mean that without other transportation forms, the airports couldn’t exist. In that sense, the same can be said about the trains.
As for the history, the airlines didn’t cede the market share. The trains have always had it. There are still @ 60 flights a day between the 4 main airports that serve those two cities. The main point being that IF there were a need to carry more people on this corridor, small adjustments to the current infrastructure like flying A380s would make more sense than building yet another set of rail lines on a very crowded corridor.
And yes, they’re not flying all those 747s on that route. But they’re still flying widebody aircraft on it. It’s not a pure 737 play by ANA, JAL, Peach, Jetstar, etc.
As far as choice, ticket prices for flying and the train are comparable. So the market share HSR has on the route one would assume comes from consumers valuing other things. The question then becomes should the Japanese government – which has mind boggling debt that is approaching 3 times GDP – at a time when the population is aging and shrinking ( aka less travel demand ) be spending $100 billion + for trains that operate 30% faster. The obvious answer is no which is why they’re clothing it in this idea of “leading the world” in this technology and the potential for export.
I suppose, if that’s what customers wanted. I’m not sure how much need there is, but every Shinkansen I took was pretty much full.
I would be really surprised if anyone bought an A380 for the Japanese domestic market, which has seen pretty much stagnant growth for the past 15 years. In that same time period Shinkansen ridership has nearly doubled.
I agree, but for the more obvious reason that JR Central says it can build the trains without the government spending anything.
If the U.S. rail industry is so humiliated by this development, then maybe they should pool together some of their own funds and build their own prototype to compete with the Japanese trains.
I’m not really interested in engaging in their next great run at triumphalism. As others have mentioned, Japan’s population is declining and its domestic market is essentially saturated. This new train is more industrial policy than it is transportation policy. They hoping that they can build it as a prototype / test bed and then export the technology to Western European countries, which unfortunately are not likely to be in the market for expensive new capital projects for the next several years.