2nd Quarter Home Price Indices

Someone just paid $1.1 million for a tear-down/fixer-upper in Mountain View, California. That’s not really news, as prices in Silicon Valley have been increasingly outrageous. What’s news is that they bought the house with the provisos that the existing owner will get to live there for seven years; the buyer didn’t get to see the interior of the home; and the buyer is required to make improvements before closing on the home. As the San Francisco Chronicle says, the new owner probably figures it will take seven years to get the permits to rebuild the house anyway.

The problem for the buyer is that the same forces that have made housing prices rise in Silicon Valley–namely the urban-growth boundaries adopted by San Mateo and Santa Clara counties–have also made prices more volatile. In other words, what goes up will come down. As shown in the chart above, San Jose prices today are already higher than they were at the peak of the 2006 housing bubble, indicating that another bubble is likely to deflate fairly soon.
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The above chart is based on the latest home price indices published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and in particular the all-transactions index for metropolitan areas. These data are collected using the Case-Shiller method, but cover more areas than the official Case-Shiller index.

The Antiplanner has modified this file, and the one for states, to make it easy to make charts such as the one above for any group of up to six metropolitan areas or states. Simply download the Antiplanner’s files for metropolitan areas and/or states and go to cells AQ72 for the metropolitan areas file and BO212 for the states file for instructions on modifying the charts. The metropolitan areas file can make charts showing both nominal and inflation-adjusted indices; the states file just does inflation-adjusted indices.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

3 Responses to 2nd Quarter Home Price Indices

  1. CapitalistRoader says:

    Phoenix and Las Vegas have the wildest swings of the cities I looked at.

    Any way to change the Y-axis title automatically after changing the year in Z1? Using OpenOffice 4.1.3.

  2. No, I don’t know of a way to automatically change the Y-axis title. I suspect you’ll have to do it manually.

    I also suspect Modesto and Stockton have bigger swings than Phoenix and Las Vegas, which I don’t think had any swings before 2000. Modesto and Stockton acted as relief cities for the Bay Area; Phoenix and Las Vegas had a bubble in the 2000s partly due to California speculators but mainly, at least in Las Vegas’ case, due to a lack of private land.

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