Entire universities are shutting down and telling their students to go home. The governor of Washington has banned all gatherings of 250 people or more. Entire countries are shutting down. Numerous airlines have offered worried travelers flexible cancellation policies.
So how is America’s transit industry responding to coronavirus? Denver’s RTD says it is “wiping down its handrails” once a day. That’s reassuring, so long as each bus and rail vehicle only carries one passenger a day.
Seattle’s Sound Transit’s trains presumably sometimes carry more than 250 people at a time, but Governor Inslee has exempted them from the 250 limit (of course; transit gets exemptions from all the rules everyone else has to follow). The agency is firmly responding to the crisis by “putting posters on vehicles reminding everyone to follow critical health guidelines.” That’ll stop the epidemic in its tracks!
Metro magazine, a mouthpiece of the transit industry, offers “10 reasons not to panic” about coronavirus. “People heal,” it says; “there are 13 times more cured cases than deaths.” Wait, so mortality is really greater than 7 percent and you’re telling us not to panic?
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A study of the flu found that people who ride transit were almost six times more likely to suffer from acute respiratory infections. Another study found that people who make long transit trips or transfer at busy stations have the highest risks of infections.
How is it that private businesses that are at serious risk of going bankrupt due to this crisis are so careful and forgiving while public transit agencies that have a gigantic safety net insulating them from declines in patronage continue to urge people to use their services? All of this goes to show that the transit industry doesn’t care about its passengers; all it cares about is its public image.
It appears that the safest way to travel, at least for now, is to drive alone in your own vehicle, but the transit agencies and their supporters are still floating down a river in Egypt. After forest fires, terrorist attacks, tsunamis, and other natural disasters, this pandemic is also one more reason to question the planners’ demands for increased urban densities. As historian Stephen Ambrose pointed out after 9/11, the real lesson we need to learn is “don’t bunch up.”
“Wait, so mortality is really greater than 7 percent and you’re telling us not to panic?”
Completely false. Don’t buy into or spread misinformed fear.
The number of deaths is well known, but the base is likely severely under reported. The fatality rates are likely quite a bit lower.
The media fails to recognize that few people who have symptoms need medical attention, and fewer still who have been exposed will ever show symptoms. Only those who end up in a hospital and are tested are counted.
It’s more likely that most in Wuhan contracted it, but their immune systems took care of it. A few thousand fatalities, mostly concentrated in the elderly and already sick, out of 10 million doesn’t seem like a huge deal.
Yet the media is playing this up as a massive epidemic that will take out 350 million globally.
Don’t buy the hype.
As historian Stephen Ambrose pointed out after 9/11, the real lesson we need to learn is “don’t bunch up.”
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The state will never let a crisis, even an imaginary one, go to waste. Inslee’s ban on gatherings of more than 250 people is not only unnecessary (as most people at risk are the elderly who are already ill), it is likely unconstitutional, too.
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Meanwhile, the flu killed 46,000 last year. This is all hype so the state can grab power and the Fed can inject more cheap credit.
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Don’t buy the hype.
Covid-19 is not going to end civilization and there is a lot of uncertainty concerning its effects. However, comparisons with influenza are not helpful. Influenza is already endemic worldwide while Covid-19 isn’t. It is clear that even for the optimistic assessments of Covid-19 individual cases of Covid-19 are more dangerous than flu. Of course, there are many in government that will use it to expand their power but this doesn’t mean the impact of Covid-19 should be unrealistically minimized.
Don’t think that ridesharing is anymore hygenic
https://www.thedrive.com/news/32356/texas-exterminator-treats-5-to-10-rideshare-vehicles-for-bed-bugs-each-week
“Covid-19 is not going to end civilization and there is a lot of uncertainty concerning its effects.”
The effects are well known and documented.
“comparisons with influenza are not helpful”
Comparisons show that the media is fixated on something new. Can you imagine if there were headlines every time someone got the flu or died from the flu? So far this flu season, up to 45 million Americans have been infected, hospitalizing up to 560,000 and killing 46,000. Influenza is a leading cause of death in the US.
“It is clear that even for the optimistic assessments of Covid-19 individual cases of Covid-19 are more dangerous than flu.”
In an epidemiological study of 44,672 confirmed cases in China, authored by an emergency response team of epidemiologists and published by the Chinese CDC, researchers reported that about 81 percent of cases were considered mild.
Nope.
Yep.
The seriousness of flu as a health problem is not well appreciated and most cases of Covid-19 are mild. However, this does not change the fact that people suffering from Covid-19 are much more likely to die than sufferers of influenza. As is to be expected the press is often screwing up their coverage of Covid-19 but it is a very real problem that must be taken seriously. If it becomes as widespread as the flu it will kill many more people.
Coronavirus “diagnoses” are based entirely on fallible “tests” and the media’s failure to critically scrutinize the man-made statistics and unverifiable claims about cause of ailments or even death.
”
Inslee’s ban on gatherings of more than 250 people is not only unnecessary (as most people at risk are the elderly who are already ill), it is likely unconstitutional, too.
” ~Frank
False. Everyone is at risk of both contracting and spreading it. EVERYONE.
You speak to the age breakdown of deaths. That’s a different issue.
prk166: What exactly is false? That the ban on gatherings is necessary? Because the facts show that the high risk groups are 80+? Because transmission is most likely to occur at home?
Not everyone has the same risk of contracting and spreading this virus, which is based entirely on fallible “tests” and the media’s failure to critically scrutinize the man made statistics and unverifiable claims about cause of ailments or even death.
Educate yourself and stop spreading fear-based lies.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
“people suffering from Covid-19 are much more likely to die than sufferers of influenza.”
You’ve made this assertion with nothing to back it up. Early data is inconclusive. Stop spreading fear!
Frank, I was quite clear in stating what was false. Everyone is catching coronovirus. This is not limited to old farts.
You’re ignorance is dangerous. Your disregard for the old’s lives is immoral.
“You’re ignorance is dangerous. Your disregard for the old’s lives is immoral.”
“prk166,” your straw man argument shows the extent of your intellectual dishonesty. You’ve presented nothing but unsubstantiated claims based on fear and your ignorance.
The Antiplanner’s fraudulent fatality rate numbers need to be corrected, and y’all need to get a get and stop spreading fear based on disinformation.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
“There are many compelling reasons to conclude that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is not nearly as deadly as is currently feared. But COVID-19 panic has set in nonetheless. You can’t find hand sanitizer in stores, and N95 face masks are being sold online for exorbitant prices, never mind that neither is the best way to protect against the virus (yes, just wash your hands). The public is behaving as if this epidemic is the next Spanish flu, which is frankly understandable given that initial reports have staked COVID-19 mortality at about 2–3 percent, quite similar to the 1918 pandemic that killed tens of millions of people.
Allow me to be the bearer of good news. These frightening numbers are unlikely to hold. The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.
We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent. Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result. We are already seeing this. In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface.”
Frank your entire premise is that because only the old die from Coronovirus, that it’s not something to worry about.
If you think that the only outcome that matters is death and that the deaths of those over 60 is _acceptable_, your cornbread didn’t get cooked right. Sad. Vile. Rheprehsible.
“Frank your entire premise is that because only the old die from Coronovirus, that it’s not something to worry about.”
Bullshit. I never claimed that. Stop with the straw man argument and personal attacks.
In short, stop lying about what I wrote or f*ck off.
”
A few thousand fatalities, mostly concentrated in the elderly and already sick,
”
Sorry, you don’t 100% state it. You only 99.999% implied it.
The entire world is dealing with an epidemic and you’re getting into a pissing match with the world over some pithy numbers.
What matters aren’t the deaths. It doesn’t matter how many people are symptomic or a symptomitc after touching a door knob or shaking hands are whatever.
The only thing that numbers if the number of people who get it. And since this is a new virus that we don’t have immunitity, that grows exponentially without mitigating it’s spread. That’s what matters, how many get it, not the percentage of this or that.
#IYI
“Sorry, you don’t 100% state it. You only 99.999% implied it.”
I implied nothing. You made an assumption based on your bias and poor reading ability. I was starting a fact.
#LyingAsshole
You have to admit though; this is an awesome way to herd sheep, using nothing but talk. #WelcomeToSovietAmerica
“Wait, so mortality is really greater than 7 percent and you’re telling us not to panic?”
This still needs to be retracted. Recent study shows 1.4 percent. Your fictional number is off by at least a factor of five. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/