Two more studies published by the National Bureau of Economic Research associate increased cases of coronavirus with public transit. “A striking and robust relationship is found between death rates and public transit use,” according to a study by researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. People who worked at home were safest, the study found, but deaths correlated with people who drove to work only at the largest scale; the correlations weren’t statistically significant at the city or state level.
A second study by University of Virginia researcher John McLaren found that blacks and Native Americans were disproportionately likely to die from the virus. This was true even after controlling for income and education; the main factor that seemed to cause increased deaths in these groups was “the use of public transit.”
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My friend MSetty will remind us that there are places in the world that have lots of transit ridership but don’t seem to suffer high COVID-19 death rates, apparently because people in those countries are much more likely to wear masks. That may be true, but all things being equal, people are more likely to get sick if they use mass transportation than if they drive in their private automobiles. This will continue to be true after the current pandemic is over, so people who want to ride transit then will have a choice of continuing to wear masks or risk catching the flu or whatever is the disease of the week.
The mask thing is growing old. The sort of masks people where – like these in this pic in Singapore – at best reduce viral particles by 1/3. AT BEST. More likely it’s all of 10 or 15%.
It’s unlikely that masks are thing but a very, very minor part of the picture. You just can’t be stuck shoulder to shoulder in an underground fart tube like that and be exposed to virus particles. We know that with Influenza, you’re exhaling viable virus particles, you don’t need to cough or sneeze to do that. In 1/2 hour someone with influenza is likely to have simply breathed out a 1000 viable influenza virions. Even with masks, in 1/2 hour on subway just standing or sitting next to someone you’ve had enough exposure to contract Covid19.
There are probably other things going on that lead to a place like Singapore working. Such as early on when things are barely happening, finding and quartining the few people who are exposed.
And places like Singapore have been locked-locked down. Even now when goign out you have to scan a QR code on your phone so they know where you are and – more importantly – to confirm that you can be there.
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“…the main factor that seemed to cause increased deaths in these groups was “the use of public transit.”
But if you oppose the government spending money on public transit, you’re a racist.
As usual, the ones who profess to “care” about minorities put them in danger, as long as the “caring elites” benefit from the huge $$$ spent.
The main benefit of face masks is that they limit the spread of particles one exhales and thereby reduce the chance that a carrier will spread the virus to others. This probably helps on mass transit, but if it is a packed train or bus it isn’t a cure all. It also means that to benefit from masks it the main thing is what other people are doing, not what you do.
Personally I took BART to work for many years but even after Covid-19 has been addressed I’m not sure I’ll resume using BART.
Japan and South KOREA have transit and high density dependency of transit galore……their infection rates were lower than US, so were their casualties. Antiplanner article weeks ago saying it was “Class, not race”. And classes of people have certain habits, Japan and South Korea in particular are vast sticklers to personal hygiene and sanitation. LONG before COVID-19, seeing Asian people with masks on was a common sight through out. Most westerners looked at as a certain degree of paranoia.
But their preferences and cultural attitude to hygiene and sanitation goes back to post-war, They go back centuries in fact. After WWII Japan had to undergo a radical medical modernization, bodies found in the Post war rubble, thousands dead in bombed out cities their deaths were attributed to starvation and warfare conditions…….but US occupation of the islands and the insertion of medical examiners offices (autopsies) later attributed their deaths to tuberculosis and diseases of toxic environment and condensed settings and miserable hygiene.
South Korea during Korean war, healthcare; what little was available publicly collapsed. And thousands of US army/navy medical personnel were the only lifeline for a huge bulk of the Korean people. And remained so after the war.
Knowing full well US forces would inevitably leave, the 1950s those nations anticipating a US withdrawl took every possible step to boost it’s health regimen as a matter of public policy and conscious effort. Knowing full well they didn’t have the resources to counter a public epidemic or have enough doctors available in case of a severe health shortage, they went on a two step method.
One; they subsidized state education to crank out more physicians/surgeons. But mostly they turned preventative medicine into a cultural mindset. Diet (one constantly being replicated by some westerners), physical activity, personal washing, outdoor sanitation are all stables of Modern asian culture. So much so those nations surpass the west on factors such as life expectancy, resiliency, etc. It’s not class or race, it’s culture.
Two: Asia is no stranger to Epidemics. So they hurry immediately to address situations where they suspect an outbreak occurs.
The results may have been true at the time, but the problem with reporting aggregate-level results in the middle of a pandemic is that conditions can change dramatically quite quickly.
Specifically, regarding the state-level effects they report at the end of the abstract, states like Colorado and Indiana have gotten their initial outbreaks largely under control, while infection rates (and death rates) in California have taken off since the beginning of June, especially in Los Angeles County.
As for the surge of increased case, you must take into account the changed method of counting.
In some states, every person who was known to have been in direct contact with a COVID person is now counted as a confirmed case – even though that person may not have even been tested. That raised the counts exponentially.