Earlier this week, I noted that a Washington Metro survey found that most of its former transit riders are unwilling to go back to riding transit until an effective COVID-19 vaccine is found. It appears they were right to say that, as a recent study by epidemiologists from Johns Hopkins University has concluded that, even after “adjusting for social distancing,” “public transit use . . . remained significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
The study found that “NPIs” (non-pharmaceutical interventions, e.g., masks & social distancing) “while visiting indoor and outdoor venues helps reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.” However, the two exceptions were public transport and places of worship. “Even NPIs may not be possible or sufficient” to prevent the virus’ spread on public transit, the study concludes. Although the study doesn’t say so, I suspect the problem is that transit vehicles are too small to permit true social distancing.
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As it happens, yesterday the Census Bureau released American Community Survey data for 2019. I’ll have a full report on Tuesday, but one of the most important findings is a surge in people working at home. More than 30 percent of the job growth since 2018 was for people working at home. This doesn’t bode well for a recovery of transit ridership anytime soon, especially in places such as Washington that have a large share of high-income riders whose work can be done at home.
In NYC, both the mayor and his commissioner of “health” both encouraged people to ride the subway as late as April and further made statements that you could not catch COVID on a subway. Those statements were clearly false.
I assume similar things happened with other commuter transit operatives, but I doubt they were as arrogantly untruthful as in NYC.
The Johns Hopkins study should be widely publicized to protect the public from the transit operators.
Transit is “being ridden” everywhere else.
Japan, south Korea have their systems active and running again.
If this virus was as lethal as people said, it’d have wiped out the Homeless population by now……..
Where is the proof that places of worship are unsafe? Small ones with many people might be but large ones with few people surely are safe (if practicing social distancing and using masks). How about comparing the safety of places of worship to places of equal size, such as bars, restaurants, grocery stores, etc. The safety of each of these depends on the size of the facility and the number of people in the facility. Lumping all places of worship into one category (unsafe) destroys any credibility in the report.
Fred,
I just reported what Johns Hopkins found. Want the evidence? Read the article.
Fred, if you took the time to look at the study, you would see that they do not state places of worship are unsafe. They’re addressing distancing and those affects.
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1313/5900759?searchresult=1
Conclusions
These results support public health messaging that strict social distancing during most activities can reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Additional considerations are needed for indoor activities with large numbers of persons (places of worship and public transportation) where even NPIs may not be possible or sufficient.