Americans drove 88.7 percent as many miles in January 2021 as in the same month of 2020, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration. That’s down slightly from 89.7 percent in December.
Looking at the above chart, it is amazing how stable everything has become. Driving has hovered within 2 percentage points of 89 percent since June. Transit has hovered within 2 percentage points of 36 percent since July. Flying has hovered within 4 percentage points of 36 percent since September. With the exception of September when it reached 31 percent, Amtrak has hovered within 4 percentage points of 26 percent since June.
For the above chart, I’ve been using vehicle-miles for driving, passenger-miles for transit and Amtrak, and passenger counts for flying. The flying data also include both domestic and international travel. I recently found passenger-mile data for flying that includes separate numbers for domestic and international travel.
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It seems likely that every American who wants a vaccination will be able to get one by the end of the summer, after which we’ll find out what the “new normal” will be. I suspect driving will return to pretty close to 100 percent of pre-pandemic levels, while flying, transit, and Amtrak will be about double their current levels.
Airlines will respond by reducing frequencies and/or plane sizes on many routes. They may have to take a one-time hit from mothballing some of their fleet, but after that they will be profitable again.
Amtrak and transit, however, will be politically obligated to maintain service even with a loss of riders. As a result, subsidies to Amtrak will rise from 50 percent of its costs to 75 percent while subsidies to transit will rise from 72 percent of its costs to 85 percent. The sad thing is that many people won’t see anything wrong with that.
