$6 Billion Down the Drain

Nine years ago, the DC metro area proposed a bus-rapid transit line to Dulles Airport that would cost $300 million to start up and $38 million a year to operate. An alternative proposal to build a $3 billion rail line to the airport was deemed far too expensive.

Tysons Corner — not dense enough yet.

Meanwhile, developers and property owners at Tysons Corner, midway between DC and Dulles, applied to Fairfax County for permission to significantly expand the commercial and retail developments in what is already one of the largest edge cities in the metro area. With 46 million square feet of office space, Virginia’s largest shopping mall, and around 100,000 jobs, some might think that Tysons was developed enough, but landowners wanted to double the development. There was one obstacle in their way: The county said that the region’s transportation facilities were inadequate to serve the expansion.
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So the developers lobbied furiously for a rail line which, they said, would take care of the transportation issue. When Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters denied federal funding for the project due to “unprecedented risks and uncertainties,” they went over her head and persuaded President Bush support the line, whose projected cost was then up to $5.2 billion. The county then tentatively agreed to allow developers to expand Tysons.

Except maybe not. Now county planners are saying that, even with the rail line, transportation facilities will be inadequate for the proposed developments. (That should be no surprise, considering the low ridership on most rail lines.) So taxpayers are on the hook for spending at least $5.2 billion — more likely $6 billion or more — for rail line designed solely to benefit a few property owners and developers. But, as it turns out, even they won’t benefit from it.

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About The Antiplanner

The Antiplanner is a forester and economist with more than fifty years of experience critiquing government land-use and transportation plans.

13 Responses to $6 Billion Down the Drain

  1. ws says:

    What’s the annual operation cost for such a rail line?

  2. Francis King says:

    And the correct solution? Mix in more residential. Office accommodation is one of the denser trip generators per area of development – alongside schools, retail and health. Residential, even apartment blocks, have much lower trip densities. Also, people go from work to the office, hence, if you co-locate them they are much less likely to have a car, let alone use it.

    If they want to put in transit, a people-mover to move car drivers from the nearby park & ride is a better bet, since the car drivers are already concentrated.

  3. MJ says:

    What’s the annual operation cost for such a rail line?

    Annual operating costs for the full line (in 2025) were estimated at just under $118 million in the DEIS.

    The same document estimated the proposed BRT system operating cost at around $52 million.

  4. ws says:

    MJ:Annual operating costs for the full line (in 2025) were estimated at just under $118 million in the DEIS.

    The same document estimated the proposed BRT system operating cost at around $52 million.

    ws:Do you know the projected ridership #’s of each system? I could not find the numbers in the DEIS. I’m assuming rail is going to have more riders.

  5. Andy says:

    When I worked in DC, I used to take a cab to Dulles for business trips. It cost about $50 with tips. When I took personal travel, I took the Metro to the nearest stop, then an express bus to Dulles. The transit cost about $5, and took about 20 minutes longer.

    So, a rail line to Dulles would be great, but I wouldn’t pay much for it.

  6. the highwayman says:

    Andy said: When I worked in DC, I used to take a cab to Dulles for business trips. It cost about $50 with tips. When I took personal travel, I took the Metro to the nearest stop, then an express bus to Dulles. The transit cost about $5, and took about 20 minutes longer.

    So, a rail line to Dulles would be great, but I wouldn’t pay much for it.

    THWM: Though over all it will save money for people in the region.

  7. Andy says:

    The highwayman said: Though over all it will save money for people in the region.

    Andy says: Maybe it will. It is just a matter of crunching the numbers. I don’t know how it turns out, but $300 million and $6 billion are pretty big numbers.

  8. the highwayman says:

    Andy, don’t ever take what O’Toole or Cox writes at face value!

    The devil is always in the details.

  9. prk166 says:

    Highwayman, if $5.2 billion is incorrect, what is the correct projected construction cost for this line?

  10. lgrattan says:

    HSR Rail Profits.
    Had a presentation by Quentin Kopp of California High Speed Rail from SFO to LA and etc. last week at San Jose Chamber of Commerce.

    Operating expenses a year will be two BILLION but income will be three Billion for a One Billion profit!!!

    Saves energy, less pollution and less GHG ???
    What a GREAT DEAL.

  11. MJ says:

    ws: Do you know the projected ridership #’s of each system? I could not find the numbers in the DEIS. I’m assuming rail is going to have more riders.

    The ridership numbers were harder to track down. The FEIS has ridership numbers for the rail option, but not for the BRT alternative, which was stripped out of the study for the FEIS. Forecast year ridership for the “Full LPA (locally preferred alternative)”, which is for 2025, is estimated at 91,200 daily boardings, 47,800 of which are assumed to be new trips.

    The closest BRT ridership numbers I’ve seen suggested daily ridership of 23,600 about 13,000 of which were new trips. It is worth noting that 1) this estimate came from a FY 2001 document filed with FTA, and 2) The forecast is for a rather poorly-designed BRT alternative with very few stops, longer headways and, most importantly, no service to Tyson’s Corner, the single largest employment center between D.C. and Dulles.

  12. John Thacker says:

    And the correct solution? Mix in more residential.

    The developers were proposing more residential.

    Most of the opposition came from homeowners in neighboring McLean and Vienna, who fear both traffic and the nebulous “nature of their neighborhood” being changed. It’s one more piece of evidence of why Smart Growthers are silly to believe that planning will help them accomplish their ideals. Neighborhood residents will use the planning process to defeat attempts to increase density.

    This line won’t be any faster than the express bus to Dulles from L’Enfant Plaza that stops at West Falls Church Metro station. It will run more often, which is convenient, but they obviously could run the express bus more often and/or as BRT. If this line has any benefits, it’s for the other stations.

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