An Open Letter to Jack Bogdanski
posted in News commentary |Dear Jack,
Well, Jack, you made your choice. I hope you will be happy with it.
For several years now, you have blogged incisively about Portland’s high-density mania, its weird transportation projects, and its corrupt political system — or, as I like to call them, the Three Big Cons: condos, congestion, and con artists swindling taxpayers out of their money.
For years, Metro planners have told you that you have a choice: grow up or grow out. Growing up means the Three Big Cons, because higher densities mean more condo towers, more traffic congestion, and more pork-barrel subsidies to rail transit and developers. Growing out would mean some relief from those cons.
Measure 37 might have provided some of that relief. After more than a decade of studying land-use planning all over the U.S. and Canada, I’ve learned how important competition is to the quality of municipal services. If developers can build on vacant land outside of cities, the cities will fall all over themselves to provide quality services to the public to keep them from leaving. But if the cities can get control of rural land uses, they eliminate that competition and then start acting for special interests, cutting essential services so as to fund expensive but pointless urban monuments such as rail systems and clusters of condo towers.
Measure 37 gave some homebuilders an opportunity to escape the stifling regulation found in Portland, Gresham, and other cities under Metro’s jurisdiction. While measure 37 was not going to solve all of Portland’s problems by itself, it was an essential first step.
I know a lot of people were bugged by a couple of billboards that someone put up after filing a measure 37 claim (and, as far as I know, those were practically the only things anywhere that have been built under measure 37). But measure 37 offered an alternative: pay the landowner not to put up the billboards. If the city didn’t want to do it, anyone else could. Just as the Oregon Water Trust pays farmers to leave in the streams for fish, an Oregon Scenic Trust could pay people to not build eyesores in particularly scenic areas.
But really, the issue wasn’t about a couple of billboards. The people who measure 37 really upset were those who benefit from the Three Cons: downtown property owners, infill developers, rail contractors, some hobby farmers who already have their rural homes, and in general everyone in Goldschmidt’s light-rail mafia. So they came up with measure 49, which all but repealed measure 37.
I knew measure 49 would pass when you endorsed it. You are exactly the kind of voter measure 37 appealed to: the angry urbanite pissed off about failed utopian land-use policies, transportation plans that spent three-fourths of the regions funds on 3 percent of the region’s travelers, and development subsidies to guys like Homer Williams and Joe Weston.
So measure 49 gave you a chance to vote on Metro’s proposition: grow up or grow out. And you, along with a majority of other Oregonians (curiously, but almost exactly the same margin that supported measure 37), voted for growing up — for the Three Big Cons.
Measure 37 was partly about property rights, the rights of the minority of Oregonians who own rural property downzoned by Oregon’s planning system. The Constitution is supposed to protect minorities by offering freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, and the freedom to own property without fear it will be take without compensation. If we treated any of the other freedoms the way we treat property rights — saying, for example, that you can print anything you want as long as the government censors no more than 90 percent of it or that you can worship in any of the 10 percent of churches approved by the government — there would be a revolt. But for some reason, the Supreme Court has decided that property rights don’t merit the same protection as other rights, and you and 61 percent of other Oregon voters apparently agree.
The American Planning Assocation promotes a book called The Land We Share. In a nation where 30 percent the land is owned by the government, you would think a book of this title was about public land. But no, it is about the other 70 percent, the land we used to call “private land.” According to this book — and, as a supporter of measure 49, you clearly agree — everyone has partial ownership of all private property, so everyone has a right to have a say in how all private landowners use their land.
That means that if “we” decide that rural landowners no longer have a right to do anything but grow food or trees on their land, so be it. And if “we” decide that urban homeowners no longer have a right to expect their neighborhood to remain single-family homes, then so be it. And, of course, the “we” who get to decide are not you or me but planners, elected officials like Sam the Tram Adams, and special interests like Homer and Joe.
As much as I’d like to think you were an idealist, I don’t expect you to have much sympathy for the Dorothy English‘s of the world, much less the Stimson Lumber companies. But how about the many Portland-area residents whose neighborhoods have been upzoned from single-family homes to apartments? How about the residents of any neighborhood within a quarter-mile of a light-rail station whose land has been rezoned for mixed-use developments? How about the people in neighborhoods who are suffering a transit-oriented crime wave thanks to density and light rail?
How bad would it have been to let measure 37 stand? According to a PSU database, all of the measure 37 claims to date add up to less than 1.3 percent of the state. It is likely that most of those claims would not have resulted in much development as many were in eastern Oregon or other remote parts of the state.
What if we went further and got rid of the urban-growth boundaries and let all landowners do what they want with their land? We can get a pretty good idea by looking at census data.
According to the 2000 census, just 1.1 percent of Oregon was urbanized — that is, in developments of 2,500 people or more. That pretty much agrees with LCDC, which says that all of the land in all of the urban-growth boundaries covers just 1.25 percent of the state. The census found that Oregon’s urban areas have an average population density of about 3,140 people per square mile. This compares with an average density in states that don’t have growth boundaries or other strict land-use regulation of about 2,000 people per square mile.
So imagine we never had any urban-growth boundaries and urban Oregonians sprawled out at 2,000 people per square mile. Then all the cities and towns and suburbs would cover about 1.4 percent of the state. That’s right, all of this fighting is over about a third of a percent of the land area of the state — which again suggests that most of the measure 37 claims would have resulted in minimal new development.
Someone is bound to say “but that third of a percent might all be prime farmland! We might pave over the Willamette Valley!” Nope. According to a pro-planning publication, under Oregon’s current planning rules, about 6.6 percent of the Willamette Valley will be developed by 2050. But if we got rid of all those rules, it would be 7.6 percent. All of those rules protect just 1 percent of the 7.5 million acres in the Willamette Valley. (You can see the arithmetic behind these numbers here.) Even in the unlikely event that all the measure 37 claims in the Willamette Valley — 295,000 acres — were fully urbanized, they amount to less than 4 percent of the valley.
Preserving a third of a percent of Oregon or 1 to 4 percent of the Willamette Valley means that Oregon homebuyers have to pay roughly twice what housing should cost. It means that Portlanders have lost all kinds of urban services in order to subsidize the high-density housing — services that might have saved a person’s life. It means that Portland is closing schools as it becomes a childless city because families with children are fleeing to places like the Couv where they can afford to buy a home with a yard (so much for “diversity”).
Is it really worth paying all those costs — not to mention trampling over people’s property rights — just to preserve a third of a percent of the state’s land? Or 1 or even 4 percent of the Willamette Valley? If you knew for certain that was the trade off, would you still have voted for measure 49?
Maybe you thought you could have it all: that Oregon could protect its rural areas from development without densifying its cities. Of course, we’d have to stop people from moving in. One way to do that would be to really drive up housing prices, like California or a few other places have done.
The only problem with that is the Couv, the relief valve that Portland can control only by limiting the crossings between Oregon and Washington. Unless Portland somehow persuades Vancouver to join Metro, Portland will have to continue subsidizing condo towers and other high-density developments, or risk losing even more new residents (and jobs) to the north side of the Columbia.
It’s time to get real. You can’t have it all. You have to make a choice. Metro gave you the choice: grow up with the Three Big Cons, or grow out and allow some (but not much) rural development. You made your choice when you voted on measure 49.
I wonder where your kids and their friends are going to live when they grow up. Will they be among the elite to afford one of Oregon’s scarce single-family homes? Will they enjoy living in a high-rise condo? Will they be renters all their lives? Or will they end up moving to Boise, Omaha, or some other more affordable city?
I don’t expect to change your mind. But the next time you criticize the PDC for subsidizing some condo tower, the next time you fret over a high-cost streetcar line, the next time you chortle over some inanity committed by Portland’s city council, I hope you feel a pang of guilt. Because you had a choice, and you chose density, congestion, and subsidies over freedom and property rights.
Let me know how that works for you.
Best wishes,
The Antiplanner
Update: Jack says he did not vote for measure 37 either. This just means he made his choice earlier than I thought.




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