Even as the prospects of stopping Honolulu’s $5 billion low-capacity rail project grow dim, the prospects for ever building the California high-speed rail system grow even dimmer. This week, California’s Lieutenant Governor, Gavin Newsom–once a strong rail supporter–has come out against the project. As theSan Diego Union-Tribune says, this is “another nail in the coffin of high-speed rail.”
At the 2010 groundbreaking ceremony for what was supposed to be San Francisco’s high-speed rail station, then-San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (left) tells then-Secretary of Immobility Ray LaHood that he is “extraordinarily excited” about the future of the train. Flickr photo from Mayor Gavin Newson‘s photostream.
Asked about his former support for the project, he said it was “a $32 billion project then, and we were going to get roughly one-third [each] from the federal government and the private sector.” Now, “We’re not even close to the timeline, we’re not close to the total cost estimates, and the private sector money and the federal dollars are questionable.”
While the Wall Street Journal takes the cynical view that Newsom is just distancing himself from Governor Jerry Brown so he can run against him for governor, the reality is it is very difficult for politicians to distance themselves from megaprojects they once supported. The main beneficiaries of these projects are the contractors and union members who build them, and while American politicians are notorious for not keeping promises, campaign fundraising becomes more difficult if the people and companies that once donated money to you are now broke because you shut off the flow of tax dollars to their programs.
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Newsom wants to do the same thing, proposing to spend the high-speed rail money on water projects for thirsty California instead. The problem with this is that there isn’t any high-speed rail money. California voters approved the sale of bonds to build high-speed rail, but didn’t provide any funding source to repay those bonds. (By comparison, the interstate highway money was there, as the highway trust fund was flush due to the huge increase in driving since states started building the highways in the late 1950s.)
So Newsom wants to take money that doesn’t exist that has been dedicated to high-speed rail and use that non-existent money on water projects instead. That would keep the contractors and unions happy, because many of the skills and equipment needed to build fills and dig tunnels for trains would also be needed to build canals and dig pipelines for water. There’s just that pesky problem that there isn’t any money in the first place.
Whether the money is there or not, I doubt the legislature would be able to take bonds revenues that voters had approved for high-speed rail and spend them on water projects. That means going back to the voters and saying, “Remember that non-existent money you agreed to spend on a rail megaproject that had huge cost overruns? Vote yes and we’ll spend it on a water megaproject that will also be likely to have huge cost overruns. And, by the way, your children will still be on the hook the repay those bonds out of tax increases that you haven’t yet approved.”
That’s probably not going to happen. Whether he runs for governor or not, Newsom is counting on the fact that Californians today hate high-speed rail enough to overcome any opposition he encounters from contractors and unions angry with his new position against rail construction. The good news is that his opposition is likely to pave the way for other Democrats that have supported the train to come out against it.
By the way, the Antiplanner has said this before, but it is annoying that Newsom and so many others say that a once-$32 billion project is now expected to cost $68 billion. In fact, they are two different projects. The $32 billion was supposed to produce trains that would go from San Francisco to Los Angeles in 2 hours and 40 minutes. The current estimate for finishing that project is $98 billion to $117 billion. The $68 billion is a stripped-down version that would take four hours or more to go that distance.
California has an energy crisis and now a water crisis. Well the water crisis is nothing new, “It’s Chinatown”. Southern California has always prospered off the illusion it was an oasis, some parts of it were. So it built one of the largest water infrastructure projects in history and for the better part of a century quenched the thirst of millions of Los Angelans. Their solution, a canal and reservoirs bring water hundreds of miles from the mountains. The result was a war of waters, with no Navy involved between farmers desperate to keep their fields wet versus urban residents most of whom are too spoiled to even drink tap water.
California does have however a nearly unlimited source of water…….the sea.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XMRlFMJB-g
Regardless of political or people opinion, desalination is California’s only real option besides rationing, which as all know, frugality is not what California or Western states are famous for. Those palm trees lining Sunset Boulevard use 50-100 gallons of water per tree per day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv1zd23f-E0
“Those palm trees lining Sunset Boulevard use 50-100 gallons of water per tree per day.”
That’s pretty frugal compared to a pondorosa or a redwood or a sequoia.
Perhaps California should split into six separate states. Might help keep Jefferson’s water in Jefferson.
Actually, I was slightly off. Also don’t confuse Coast Redwoods with Giant Sequoia. While related the Giant Sequoia is way more drought tolerant than the other. According to some horticulture experts a typical palm needs one gallon per foot of height per day. Less is needed in the high humidity climates they originated from but doing it in dry California, you need 2-3 times to overcome transpiration loss. Seeing brown palm leaves is a big no no. They’re not dead, just inert saving water as best they can.
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/technology/2011/12/problem-palm-trees/748/
“California does have however a nearly unlimited source of water…….the sea.”
But there’s a catch. It’s going to be a huge burden on grid to pump all that water up in elevation.
Keep it clean, guys.
My apologies to The Antiplanner. This is his blog and I apologize for not conforming to his terms.
Yes, this is The Antiplanner’s blog, though some people here do set me off at times. Just because one disagrees doesn’t make one evil, either. Actually, the person I usually disagree with the most is Randal, though I understand the logic of why he believes the way he does.
Opponents of these developments need to lock in politicians about the cost/benefit of the projects they support. They will always say the benefits are just enough to justify the costs. Then when the costs change, and often the benefits change, they can expose the politician’s true motivations.
The politicians support is almost always because their financial backers want the project, and cost overruns are just more profit for the politician’s supporters.
Seeing how projects like Iowa’s has dragged out for years with no one willing or able to 100% kill off the project but it being unable to move forward, I have a feeling we’ve got a few years to go before California’s HSR is put to rest.
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2013/10/21/branstad-cites-considerable-skepticism-about-iowa-city-train-but-awaits-dot-study-before-deciding-its-fate/article
State Sen. Matt McCoy, D-Des Moines, who chairs the Iowa Senate’s transportation budget subcommittee, said last week it’s obvious plans for an Iowa City passenger train are dead because of the refusal of House Republicans the past three legislative sessions to provide matching state money to secure the federal grant. The federal money was awarded to Iowa while Democrat Chet Culver, a support of passenger rail service, was governor.
Anyone else notice that Gavin Newsom bears a striking resemblance to Patrick Bateman in ‘American Psycho’? Coincidence?
With a little Matthew McConaughey mixed in.