Correlation vs. Causation

An recent article in the American Conservative magazine observes that home prices have gone up more in blue states while housing has remained more affordable in red states. Republicans are more likely to get married and have more children, the writer argues, so they want to live in places where they can afford a house with a yard.

Or is it, as Dave Barry once suggested, that living in suburbs and paying property taxes turns people into Republicans? Is the war on sprawl a plot by Al Gore aimed at boosting the fortunes of the Democratic Party?
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Since I am on the road, I don’t have time to explore this in detail, but I am sure many of the commenters will enjoy doing so.

Melbourne to Relieve Housing Shortage

Australia has some of the least-affordable housing in the English-speaking world. But the premier of Victoria has announced that his state’s government will make 90,000 new home sites available for housing by rezoning land in the Melbourne urban area.

Housing in Melbourne.Flickr photo by Mark Larrimore.

As near as I can tell from the stories, he is not proposing to expand Melbourne’s urban-growth boundary, but to immediately reclassify lands in what American planners would call the “urban reserve” for housing. He also promises to streamline the approval process so as to take a full year off the time it takes to get a permit to build. Of course, once the 90,000 home sites are taken up, the government may have to expand the boundary for real if it wants to keep housing affordable.

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Americans Buy Less Gasoline — Everybody Panic! (Not)

The Wall Street Journal reports that the nation’s gasoline consumption has dropped by 1.1 percent from the previous year’s levels. No doubt the end-of-the-suburbs crowd will use this to justify their claims.

Are Americans ready for $4 a gallon gas?
Flickr photo by slworking2.

The problem is that, though people may be buying less gasoline, they aren’t driving any less. According to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Transportation, driving through October of 2007 was almost exactly the same as in 2006, which was a little more than in 2005.

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$82 Million Per Mile Is Cost Effective?

Last week, the Twin Cities’ Metropolitan Council approved a new light-rail line between downtown Minneapolis and downtown St. Paul. As approved, the 11-mile line will cost $909 million, or more than $82 million per mile.

Socialist light-railism in Minneapolis.

The Met Council’s original proposal, which was projected to cost $990 million, was rejected two years ago by the Federal Transit Administration. Under cost-effectiveness criteria that the FTA established in 2005, any project that cost $24 or more “per hour of transportation system user benefits” would be ineligible for federal funding. The $990 million Central Corridor line was projected to cost $26.05 per hour; cutting the cost to $909 million would improve this to a mere $23.80 per hour.

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Agricultural Planning Disasters

A great op ed in Saturday’s New York Times illustrates some of the dangers of government planning with a story about farming. The author of the article, a Minnesota farmer, made the naive mistake of responding to the market demand for local fruits and vegetables by converting 25 acres of corn fields into watermelons, tomatoes, and other vegetables.

Don’t try to grow watermelons here.
Flickr photo by Beggs.

It turns out that the U.S. Department of Agriculture forbids farmers from growing most fruits and vegetables on “corn base” lands. The farmer had to pay a stiff fine, equal to all his profits, for daring to grow watermelons instead.

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Where Will We Find the Next Slums?

The Atlantic has joined the chorus of those who say that suburbs are declining as everyone who is anyone will soon move back to the cities. In The Next Slum, New Urbanist Christopher Leinberger predicts that many of our suburbs will turn into slums as people of wealth and income return to high-density, mixed-use developments.

The Antiplanner has addressed this issue at least once before. To make sure there isn’t any confusion, I don’t really care whether people move back to the cities or not. I just think it is foolish, wasteful, and intrusive for state and local governments to base their land-use policies on the assumption that Leinberger is right.

Belmar row houses “from the mid 300s.”
Photo taken by Jennifer Lang in January 2007.

For example, Leinberger extolls Belmar, a mixed-use development in Lakewood Colorado “built on the site of a razed mall.” Housing there, he says, “commands a 60 percent premium per square foot over the single-family homes in the neighborhoods around it.”

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Rail Transit: Pay Now, Pay Later

Denver’s 119-mile FasTracks rail transit project, approved by voters in 2004, will cost at least $1.4 billion more than voters were told, according to the project’s 2007 annual report. Moreover, a revenue shortfall means that Denver’s Regional Transit District’s (RTD) ability to sell bonds to pay for construction will fall $400 million short of expectations.

Although RTD blames rising steel prices for the overrun, in fact a large share of the additional cost is due to RTD’s own inane decisions. The original plan called for running Diesel-powered trains from downtown to the airport, but RTD decided to spend another $400 million electrifying the route. RTD also changed routes on the North Metro line, adding at least $100 million to its costs.

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Craziness in Dubai

Someone sent me an email last week about “craziness,” that is, rapid growth and development, in Dubai, a city (and emerite, or what we would call a state) in the United Arab Emerites. Dubai has been doubling in population every decade and construction in the city has been phenomenal.

The Burj Dubai, soon to be the world’s tallest building.
Flickr photo by Pete the Painter.

Dubai features some of the world’s tallest buildings, dozens of artificial islands, the world’s largest artificial port, an indoor ski resort, and the world’s most luxurious hotel. Developments planned or under construction include the world’s largest amusement park, the world’s first undersea hotel, and a building that is expected to be 40 percent taller than what is now the world’s tallest skyscraper. Its airport, which currently moves as many people as the one in the Twin Cities and as much cargo as Chicago O’Hare, is expected to eventually be the biggest in the world.

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Fresh Air from the Puget Sound

A Seattle blogger has a skeptical view of the notion that Seattle, or any city, should try to become denser the way Vancouver and Portland have done. Knute Berger, aka Mossback, argues that Seattle’s density “policies are making the city more unaffordable. They are helping to drive the poor out of town. They are displacing long-standing communities. They are changing the scale of a once-egalitarian city that featured few poor people, few rich people, and a lot of folks in between. This old middle class Seattle is now seen as unsophisticated, not worthy of protection, backward even.”

Mossback points to another blog that celebrates the fact that Seattle is now the only city in the Northwest that has more multi-family housing than single family. Whoopee! We’ve made housing so expensive that we’ve reduced the quality of life for a majority of our people.
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The Antiplanner makes no secret of the fact that he thinks the density mania is even more insane than the rail transit mania. I am glad that another blog, Crosscut.com, has people who feel the same way. And Mossback is not the only one.

More Phony Plaudits for Portland

The Antiplanner is obviously not doing his job or Popular Science magazine would not have named Portland the nation’s “greenest city.” As befitting the “science” in its name, the magazine arrived at this conclusion quantitatively. But as befitting the “popular” in its name, it seems to have skewed the data to arrive at a predetermined outcome.

PopSci, which once featured fantastic visions of the future promising, among other things, propellor-driven automobiles, propellor-driven trains, and propellor-driven snowmobiles, now takes a grim view of the future that demands we all “green up” by reducing our mobility and energy consumption. The magazine relied on four criteria for its rankings: the percentage of electricity that comes from renewable resources, the percentage of workers who don’t drive, the number of buildings certified as “green,” and how comprehensive the city’s recycling program is. The first two were given twice the weight of the second two.

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