40. Preserving the American Dream

Sales of the Vanishing Automobile went really well. Although my publicity was limited to a web site and speaking engagements, it sold faster than my previous book, Reforming the Forest Service.

This made me realize that there was a lot of grassroots opposition to urban planning fads such as smart growth and light rail. To promote that opposition, I decided to bring experts and activists together in a national conference.

Previous conferences that I had held, such as the 1984 Mission Symposium, had been backed up by a staff of at least four or five other people. But I organized this conference, which I called Preserving the American Dream, by myself. Continue reading

Honolulu’s Terrible Folly & a Transit Mystery

Honolulu is building what may be the most expensive above-ground rail line in the world. The 20-mile line is expected to cost $9.2 billion, more than the cost of the 243 miles of light-rail lines in Sacramento, Saint Louis, Salt Lake City, San Diego, and San Jose combined. While the FTA classifies Honolulu’s line as heavy rail, it’s passenger capacity will be about the same as light rail, as platforms will only be large enough for four-car trains.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Meanwhile, the city’s transit ridership is plummeting, having fallen by 21 percent since rail construction began. Rail ridership projections assumed bus ridership numbers would grow by more than 50 percent, not decline. Continue reading

St. Louis Streetcar Dies a Noisy Death

Built at a cost of $51 million, St. Louis’ streetcar line made its last run in December, 2019 when the organization operating it ran out of funds. Fittingly, it broke down on its very last run and its passengers had to walk the last few blocks of the route.

Built at a cost of $51 million, the trolley opened in November, 2018 after a decade of planning and construction. Proponents predicted it would carry 400,000 riders in its first year. In fact, it carried only about 20,000 and fare revenues didn’t come close to covering operating costs.

Streetcar lovers hoped that St. Louis’ regional transit agency, which can’t seem to decide whether to call itself Metro (the name used by numerous other transit agencies) or Bi-State (which is boring but at least original), would take over the streetcar. Last week, Bi-State’s CEO said he was prepared to take it over provided he could require every business along the line to buy a monthly pass for all of their employees. Continue reading

39. The West Is Burning! (Or Is It?)

While I was in transition from working primarily on public lands issues to working primarily on urban issues, the Forest Service was in transition from focusing primarily on timber to focusing on something else, but it wasn’t quite sure what. Chief Thomas suggested that it should focus on ecosystem management, but ecosystem management doesn’t pay the bills, especially since no one was quite sure what it meant.

My reform proposals called for the federal land agencies to be allowed to charge market prices for all resources and be funded exclusively out of a fixed share of those revenues. I suspected that, on most national forests, this would lead to recreation becoming the most important use, though there would still be room for timber and other uses. The main obstacle to this was that Congress didn’t allow the agencies to charge for most recreation.

That began to change in 1996 when Congress created the Recreation Fee Demonstration program, allowing each of the four main public land agencies (Forest Service, Park Service, BLM, and Fish & Wildlife Service) to begin up to 100 experiments with recreation fees each and letting the agencies keep the revenues. The Park Service approached this with a complete lack of innovation, instead merely increasing entrance fees on 100 parks that were already charging fees and keeping the increased income (the fees that were previously being collected went into the Land & Water Conservation Fund). Continue reading

November Ridership Down 0.3 Percent

Transit ridership in November 2019 was 0.3 percent lower than the same month in 2018, according to data released last week by the Federal Transit Administration. Ridership in January through November 2019 was 0.1 percent below the same period in 2018.

The downward trend in ridership was in spite of a slight increase in the New York urban area, which sees 44 percent of all transit riders in the country. Without New York, year-to-date ridership was 1.5 percent lower in 2019 than 2018. Thirty-two out of the nation’s top fifty urban areas lost transit riders in 2019 to date.

Fact: A person with Kamagra medication is a product of Ajanta Pharma and line viagra is manufactured in India. Tom Lue, professor at UC San Francisco focused 25mg barato viagra on individual’s lifestyle while curing impotence. An ED commander levitra sufferer can get a range of drugs on a platform. These compounds are responsible for enhancing blood flow and cialis 10 mg bought this allowing a perfect erection. November bus ridership fell by 3.5 percent; light-rail ridership by 7.0 percent; streetcar ridership by 7.1 percent; and hybrid rail by 2.1 percent. Commuter rail grew by 1.0 percent and heavy rail by 4.9 percent, mainly due to New York. Continue reading

Make America Affordable Again

The Department of Housing and Urban Development has asked for comments on eliminating regulatory barriers to affordable housing. This is my response.

Fifty years ago, housing was affordable everywhere in the country. The 1970 census found that the statewide ratio of median home prices to median family incomes was greater than 3.0 only in Hawaii (where it was 3.04). Price-to-income ratios were under 2.5 in every other state, and under 2.2 in California, New York, and other states that today are considered unaffordable.

Click image to download a five-page PDF of this policy brief.

A home that costs three times a family’s income is considered affordable because (depending on mortgage interest rates) the family can generally pay off a mortgage on that home in 15 years. When the home is four times the income, it can take 30 years, while families cannot pay off a conventional mortgage on a home that is five times their income. Higher home prices also mean higher down payments, which make housing even more unaffordable. Housing is in crisis today because price-to-income ratios have risen above 5.0 in California, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia, and above 4.0 in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington (calculated from tables B19113 and B25077 of the 2018 American Community Survey). Continue reading

38. Utah State University

I first met Randy Simmons when we were both graduate students at the University of Oregon. He was seeking a Ph.D. in political science, but like me when I was in urban planning, he decided to get a different view of things by taking a course in urban economics. I was in my first term as a student in economics and they assigned me to be a teaching assistant in the course he was taking.

I had already taken urban economics, but the course I took was for graduate students and the course he was taken was for undergraduates and included a lot more basic economics while the graduate course focused on modeling. As a result, I was a terrible T.A. because I didn’t yet know much about basic economic concepts such as elasticity. Yet Randy and I got along because we were both interested in environmental issues.

By 2000, Randy was the chair of the Utah State University political science department. He had studied and written about public lands, endangered species, and wilderness (and since then has written much more). But he really thinks more like an economist than a political scientist, and today he is in Utah State’s economics department. Continue reading

Transit Capital vs. Operating Costs

Contrary to claims by many advocates of rail transit, the high capital cost of rail lines is rarely made up for by rail’s lower operating costs relative to buses. This can be seen from data in the National Transit Database’s annual time series capital use spreadsheet. This spreadsheet has capital costs for all transit agencies and modes dating from 1992 through 2018.

Click image to download a four-page PDF of this policy brief.

Capital funds are generally spent on things that last for many years while operating costs are spent mainly on one year’s activities. Thus, comparing them is difficult, but it is possible. This policy brief will make a first approximation for transit projects nationwide, but care must be taken in comparisons for specific projects. Continue reading

New York MTA Challenges Artist over Map

New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority is in a heap of financial trouble. It is more than $40 billion in debt; it has a $60 billion maintenance backlog; plus it has more than $20 billion in unfunded health care obligations.

Instead of addressing these problems, the MTA is going after an artist named Jake Berman for violating the MTA’s copyright by making and selling a map of MTA’s subway network.

The MTA says that Berman’s map looks like the official MTA map, which is to be expected since they are both mapping the same thing. Berman’s map looks like an abstract version of the subway system known as the Vignelli map, which MTA wasn’t even using until two years after Berman started distributing his map on the web. Continue reading

37. The Berkeley Fellowship

Between the end of fall semester at Yale and the beginning of spring semester at UC Berkeley, we had time to drive across the United States, spend a few days at our Oak Grove home that was still for sale, find housing in the Bay Area, take a trip to the Oregon Coast, and move the things we needed from Oregon to our temporary home in Walnut Creek. I had looked for housing in Berkeley and quickly decided that housing on the other side of the Berkeley Hills in Contra Costa County was more affordable. I lucked out in finding a serviceable home that was scheduled to be torn down and replaced with apartments, so the owners rented it for a reasonable price.

This meant that, for the first time since high school, I commuted by transit instead of by bicycle or foot. From the house in Walnut Creek, I walked a short distance to the BART station and took the train to Berkeley. With a change of trains, I could get off within two blocks of my office. If I took my bicycle, which was allowed during non-rush-hours, I could avoid the change of trains and cycle about two miles to the office.

On the walk to the BART station I passed through a neighborhood of pre-war homes that realtors would describe as cute or cozy. Most were about 1,000 to 1,600 square feet on small, irregularly shaped lots. A few for-sale signs indicated asking prices of around $400,000, which seemed astounding for someone used to Oregon’s prices. However, I learned, that was only the starting price, as the homes sold rapidly after bidding wars that could easily add $100,000 to the price. This was the result of the urban-growth boundaries in Contra Costa and all other Bay Area counties (except San Francisco, which was entirely urbanized). Continue reading