Negative on Positive Train Control

The National Transportation Safety Board hasn’t made any final determinations, but it’s looking more like the September 29 New Jersey train crash could have been prevented by positive train control (PTC) systems that Congress has mandated but the railroads have failed to install. This is going to lead to a spate of articles accusing New Jersey Transit and other railroads and transit agencies of dragging their feet in installing PTC. Yet the Antiplanner isn’t positive that positive train control is the best way to make rail lines safer.

According to National Transportation Statistics table 2-39, since 1990 an average of 8 passengers and 26 railroad employees have been killed per year in accidents, many of which could have been prevented by positive train control. Meanwhile, an average of 416 people per year have been killed when struck by trains at grade crossings and another 354 have been killed when struck by trains because they were trespassing on tracks. None of those deaths could have been prevented by positive train control.

That suggests that positive train control, which the Association of American Railroads says is likely to cost $10 billion, may not be the most cost-effective way of making railroads safer. Every death is tragic, but if the $10 billion the railroads have to spend to save 34 lives a year could have been spent improving grade crossings and fencing off railroad rights of way, it might be able to save hundreds of lives per year instead.

We’ve had this debate before–69 years ago. As previously described in the Antiplanner, in 1947 the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) ordered railroads to install either positive train control or cab signal devices (lights in locomotive cabs that would indicate red, yellow, or green status) anywhere passenger trains would run faster than 79 miles per hour. This forced most railroads to slow down their trains, making them less competitive with driving.

At the time, the railroads protested saying that this rule wasn’t needed because it would prevent few accidents, while the money spent to comply with it might be able to save more lives if spent elsewhere.

“There is no question but that the introduction of cab signals or automatic train control adds somewhat to the safety of operation,” Southern Pacific General Manager J.W. Corbett told the ICC in a hearing. “Of course, there are many other refinements which add to the safety of operations, and there is a very practical problem as to which or how the available funds for such improvements will be expended.”
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“That is right,” responded an ICC Commissioner, “and when you get to the final analysis here, it is a question of whether you should determine how these funds should be used or whether the government should, isn’t that right?”

“I will certainly say the decision should be left with the management,” Corbett replied, “because I think we have demonstrated our desire to surround our operations with every possible safeguard.” But the commissioner insisted that Congress had “given the Commission the responsibility,” so it was going to exercise it.

This is the same Washington-knows-best mentality that led Congress to mandate positive train control on all rail lines that move passengers or hazardous materials. The problem with that idea is that Washington DC responds more to highly visible problems than to less obvious but more serious problems. One or two people get killed every day in grade crossing accidents, but they don’t make national headlines. An Amtrak or New Jersey Transit train crashes and it’s in the news for weeks.

Having said that, it may be true that the railroads are dragging their feet about spending $10 billion or more on something that provides little benefit. As the Antiplanner previously noted, some insight about that was offered by Steve Ditmeyer, who designed the first modern positive train control system for Burlington Northern in the 1980s.

Ditmeyer says that a comprehensive positive train control system could completely replace the existing rail signaling systems, and the savings from eliminating existing signals would partly offset the cost of the new system. If implemented this way, positive train control would not only increase safety, it would increase railroad capacities, thus providing benefits that would easily cover the costs.

When Congress mandated positive train control, however, instead of using it to replace signals, the railroads decided to build it on top of the existing signals. The result is the system is safer, but at higher costs and no increases in capacity. Is this the railroads’ fault for not listening to Steve Ditmeyer (who Trains magazine recently listed among the “75 railroaders you should know“), or is it Congress’ fault for setting unrealistic deadlines for an unfunded mandate? I’ll let the readers debate that, but the point remains that Washington legislators and bureaucrats are not likely to choose the best way to manage the railroads or any other industry.