Faithful readers of the Antiplanner will recall that loyal opponent DanS predicted that Oregon would repeal measure 37, the property rights law, by 2008. He believed so strongly that Oregon voters were fed up with the law that he offered to bet the Antiplanner, with the stakes being a dinner.
The Democratic majority in Oregon’s legislature is apparently not so confident about the mood of the voters. After all, 61 percent of voters approved measure 37. While planning proponents are pushing hard to get the legislature to amend the law, few are actually talking about repeal.
Instead, a bill under consideration would allow landowners to subdivide into no more than three parcels. Even if this passed, it would not win DanS the bet, which specifically stated that “Any mere modification of the law. . . (such as allowing people to subdivide their land in three or four parcels but not scores of parcels) does not qualify as a ‘repeal.'”
But Oregon legislators are even nervous about this change. Instead of passing it outright, it looks like they are going to refer it to the voters.
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It is my guess that voters will reject these amendments. But even if they pass them, DanS has little chance of winning his bet, as passing them will remove any pressure to repeal the law.
When DanS made his offer, he predicted measure 37 would be repealed by May of 2009. When I proposed the final terms, I made the mistake of changing this to the end of 2009. So that means we won’t get to settle our bet until 2010.
But if DanS is willing to concede, he can ride his bicycle down the Oregon Coast this summer. The bad news is that the expensive restaurant I was going to make him take me to seemed to be out of business the last time I bicycled by it. Meanwhile, Crazy Norwegians Fish & Chips, where I was going to take him on the remote chance that I lost, is thriving.
So maybe it will have to be fish & chips either way. The real test will be to see if the Antiplanner can keep up with the planner on a bicycle for the 27 miles between here and there.
Posting on behalf of JK:
This seems like a good time to review some facts about M37:
Presumably Lemelson wanted to use the force of law to protect his private little preserve from the city riff-raff and other unwanted new neighbors.
The biggest single class of opponents were OUT OF STATE corporations, allegedly concerned about the environment, but probably really trying to preserve “their Oregon experiment” with Oregonians as the lab rats.
Here is a partial list of them totaling over $500,000:
Name City Date Amount C&E rept., page, line
Ballot Initiative Strategy Center Washington DC 09/13/04 $7,500.00 1st pre, 8, 2
Club Sierra San Francisco CA 07/22/04 $10,000.00 1st pre, 107, 1
Club Sierra San Francisco CA 10/08/04 $10,000.00 2nd pre, 77, 4
Henry Hill & Company Napa CA 10/08/04 $1,000.00 2nd pre, 36, 4
League of Conservation Voters Washington DC 08/20/04 $75,000.00 1st pre, 64,4
League of Conservation Voters Washington DC 10/12/04 $200,000.00 2nd pre, 48,4
Messinger Alida R. New York NY 05/10/04 $20,000.00 1st pre, 79,4
National Trust for Historic Pres San Francisco CA 09/22/04 $4,000.00 2nd pre,59,5
Rockefeller Laurance New York NY 10/08/04 $10,000.00 2nd pre, 73,4
The Partnership Project, Inc. Washington DC 10/05/04 $90,000.00 2nd pre, 82,4
Trust Dorothy Lemelson Incline Village NV 09/02/04 $75,000.00 1st pre, 32,1
Trust Dorothy Lemelson Incline Village NV 09/27/04 $10,000.00 2nd pre,21,1
Wildlife Defenders of Washington DC 09/01/04 $12,000.00 1st pre, 28,1
Wildlife Defenders of Washington DC 10/07/04 $23,000.00 2nd pre, 19, 3
————-ÂÂ
Total Big Money Out OF State Contributions $547,500
(Where was the outcry from the liberals about over half a million of out of state money?)
Thanks
JK
But if DanS is willing to concede, he can ride his bicycle down the Oregon Coast this summer. The bad news is that the expensive restaurant I was going to make him take me to seemed to be out of business the last time I bicycled by it. Meanwhile, Crazy Norwegians Fish & Chips, where I was going to take him on the remote chance that I lost, is thriving.
So maybe it will have to be fish & chips either way. The real test will be to see if the Antiplanner can keep up with the planner on a bicycle for the 27 miles between here and there.
1. Too early to concede, Randal.
We won’t know the true level of buyer’s remorse, either, until Election Day. I’m sure there will be another run on claims in the run-up before Election Day, so we’ll see how that plays in voter’s minds. They sure don’t seem to like it now, despite the non-germane info provided above.
2. The longer we wait, however, the longer I’ll have ridden at this altitude, & going down to sea level, well…so maybe I’ll keep the panniers on as we ride.
DS