While transit ridership declined in April 2018 vs. 2017 in the vast majority of urban areas, it grew in Raleigh. Not only did it grow there, it grew by a miraculous 20 percent, more than any other of the nation’s fifty largest urban areas. The first four months of 2018 saw a more modest but still trend-bucking 9 percent growth over the same months in 2017.
What is responsible for this rapid growth? According to the TransitCenter, it resulted from a boost to transit service that came after voters approved a half-cent sales tax for transit in November, 2016. This was a sales tax increase that opponents called a “transit plan to nowhere.”
FTA data show that GoRaleigh, Raleigh’s main transit agency, offered 10.0 percent more bus service in April 2018 than 2017, and carried 26.5 percent more riders. Bus service for the first four months of 2018 was 6.8 percent greater, and riders 11.7 percent more numerous, than in 2017. So it seems plausible that service increases are responsible for the growth in ridership.
Looking further back in time, however, reveals a contrary trend. Between 2013 and 2017, GoRaleigh increased bus service in every year. Yet bus ridership plummeted in those years, falling 25 percent by 2017 despite a 13 percent increase in bus service. April 2018’s 26.5 percent increase in bus ridership over 2017 is still a 23 percent decline from April 2013 despite an 13 percent increase in bus service.
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The TransitCenter’s article on Raleigh also applauds Indianapolis for approving a transit tax increase in November, 2016. The first four months of 2018 saw a 10 percent increase in Indianapolis transit service compared with the same months in 2017. Yet ridership declined by more than 3 percent.
The Indianapolis tax increase included funds for one bus-rapid transit line, while the Raleigh increase is supposed to fund several BRT lines and a commuter-rail line. None of those have been built yet and if the Trump administration has its way, they may never be built because they all depend on federal funding to match local funds. But whether they are built or not, they aren’t influencing current ridership trends.
So what caused the Raleigh miracle of a 20 percent increase in total ridership and a 26.5 percent increase in bus ridership? I don’t know, but I doubt the tax increase had a lot to do with it. Raleigh will be a city to watch in future monthly transit reports.
Have you looked at date box revenues? Maybe RDUs just changed how they estimate useage. They can’t tweak the fare revenue though.
Raleigh is home to several universities, so is the spike in transit the result of young non-driving people who need to get around town? Maybe research the rise in transit use with the population growth in college population with those that own cars?