Can Transit Save Itself by Going Driverless?

With ridership declining, fare revenues are also declining, and these revenues provide an average of one-third of transit agency operating funds. One way transit agencies can save money is to go driverless. While driverless buses are several years away, driverless rail lines have been around for quite some time.

The International Public Transport Association defines three levels of automated transit: level 4 requires no human operators; level 3 requires a human operator just for emergency situations; and level 2 requires a human operator for emergencies and to close the doors. Level 1 is unautomated.

Most airport trains in the United States are level 4. While BART and Washington Metro could have been level four, unions demanded at least “one employee per train,” so they were operated as level 2. Since the 2009 crash, which was caused by failure to maintain the computer system, most DC Metro lines have been operated as level 1. Honolulu’s rail line is supposed to be fully automated, but it isn’t certain it will ever be finished as its cost is proving to be far greater than expected.

A study of more than 20 level 4 automated metros around the world found that automation reduced staffing requirements by 30 to 70 percent. The remaining staff were probably people who were paid more than the ones not needed, so monetary savings would be smaller. Capital costs are also greater, but operational savings from two lines were estimated to be enough to recover the capital costs plus 10 to 15 percent.

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Proposals to automate metros pit transit advocates against transit unions. Last week, Sean Kennedy, of the Maryland Public Policy Institute, proposed to abolish Metro’s transit unions. Kennedy was chiefly concerned about the fact that the Metro system is falling apart, yet the union is threatening to strike. But in an email to me he mentioned the added benefit that abolishing the union would also clear the way for automation.

While there are other benefits from automating trains, I’m not persuaded that it can save transit or is even worthwhile. Washington Metro’s capacity shortage is pretty unusual in the United States, and only exists because they foolishly built the Silver Line, which uses the same tracks for part of its trip as the Blue Line, which was full to capacity during rush hour. There may be some New York subways that are at capacity, but most rail lines in this country don’t need to operate more than 8 times per hour, much less 42.

Transit ridership in most places is declining while the up-front cost of automating most American rail systems would have to be on top of the tens of billions needed to simply get those rail lines up to a state of good repair. Thus I can’t imagine that it would be worth the cost in order to save 10 to 15 percent in the long run. Automated or not, rail transit is expensive, while buses driven by human drivers will cost less, in most circumstances, than rehabilitating and automating rail lines. In short, automation will not allow transit to compete in the current urban market, much less one in which it has to compete with driverless ride hailing.