Transit Update

The Antiplanner has corrected a few very minor errors and added some new calculations to the June 2018 ridership spreadsheet. If you downloaded the spreadsheet I posted Wednesday, you probably should redownload it now.

The new calculations include fiscal year ridership totals for 2012 through 2016. Nationally, ridership peaked in 2014, and has declined in every fiscal year since then. Although the nationwide decline since 2014 was just 7.5 percent, declines in many urban areas were much larger: 29% in Memphis; 27% in Charlotte; 26% in Miami; 25% in Albuquerque; 24% in Cleveland; 22% in St. Louis; 21% in Milwaukee, Sacramento, and Virginia Beach; 20% in Los Angeles.

Transit began falling in some of these urban areas, such as Sacramento and Memphis, much earlier than 2014. With the additional fiscal year data, you can track this decline back to 2012. The calendar year data go back to 2002.

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After reaching a low of 7.8 billion transit trips in 1995, APTA issued gushing press releases as ridership grew in most years through 2014. That growth was largely due to high fuel prices. Now gas prices have stabilized and the transit industry has been taken by surprise by ride-hailing companies such as Uber and Lyft. While 2018 ridership won’t be as low as it was in 1995, the urban population has grown so 2018’s trips per urban resident will be lower than in 1995.

APTA press releases today focus on things like sustainability, whatever that means, as the organization continues to seek greater subsidies for the declining benefits it provides Americans. This isn’t a surprise, but at some point even politicians are likely to see that there isn’t any point in continuing these subsidies.