Deconstructing Commuter- & Light-Rail Data

The American Public Transportation Association has posted its second quarter ridership report, showing a 2.0 percent decline in ridership in the second quarter and a 2.9 percent decline in the first half of the year. This isn’t really new information since the FTA issued its version of the data in early August. However, APTA’s numbers provide independent confirmation.

According to both APTA and the FTA, all major forms of transit are declining except commuter rail. So why is commuter rail increasing? A close look at the FTA data show that, between FY2014 and FY2018, commuter rail numbers declined in Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, but increased in Seattle, New York, and Denver. The increases in New York and Denver, however, were more than offset by declines in bus ridership.

New York commuter trains (including New Jersey Transit) carried 10.4 million more trips in FY 2018 than 2014. However, New York MTA alone lost 72.6 million bus trips in the same time period. New Jersey Transit lost another 5.5 million. It is unlikely that people substituted commuter train trips for buses, so this suggests that ridership is dropping most in the urban core, which would be consistent with the idea that ride hailing is cutting into transit.

Denver opened its A for airport line in 2016, and it carried 7.4 million riders in FY2018. Although it is classified as commuter rail, it is really a hybrid. Unlike commuter trains that bring commuters downtown in the morning and away from downtown in the evening, it operates all day. Unlike heavy rail which is entirely grade separated, it crosses streets at grade. Unlike light rail which tends to operate four to eight times an hour, it operated two to four times an hour and at higher speeds than light rail.

In any case, trips on Denver’s A line are more likely than those on New York commuter trains to be substitutes for bus trips. Since Denver bus ridership fell by 10.4 million trips in the same time period, it seems likely that a lot of A line riders were former bus riders.

Although Seattle didn’t open a new commuter-rail line since 2014, it did increase commuter rail service by 32 percent. This is one case where a service increase paid off, as ridership grew by 48 percent or about 1.5 million trips. The gain of 19.3 million trips in Denver, New York, and Seattle was enough to offset the decline elsewhere, but since most of the net gain can be attributed to the new line in Denver, commuter-rail ridership is not likely to grow much in the future.

Between 2014 and 2018, light rail also saw a growth in ridership totaling 10.3 million trips. This growth can also be attributed to the opening of new lines in a few urban areas, namely Houston, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Seattle.

Second, viewers are tadalafil buy india proffered with the symptoms of the sickness include convulsions, tremor, vomiting and excessive. The cheapest brand cialis presence of sildenafil citrate in Kamagra jellies works wonder in ease your problem. Talking to Your Partner Having Erectile Dysfunction new.castillodeprincesas.com get viagra without prescription condition can make you feel useless and ashamed. It is recommended that you should take comfort in the fact that erectile dysfunction is common , and that everyone goes through it at certain moments generic levitra of life. Metro Transit opened its Green line between downtown Minneapolis and downtown St. Paul near the end of FY 2014. This resulted in an increase of light-rail ridership of 13.7 million rides by FY2018. However, most of those rail trips were probably taken by people who were previously bus riders, and Metro transit lost 14.4 million bus rides in the same time period.

Houston also opened new light-rail lines after 2014, increasing its light-rail system from 7 to 22 miles. Although service increased by 143 percent, ridership grew by only 53 percent or 6.4 million trips. This was only partly offset by a decline of about 1.6 million bus trips.

Finally, Seattle opened its University light-rail line in 2016, connecting some of the city’s densest housing with downtown. A 102 percent increase in rail service led to a 127 percent increase in ridership. Altogether, Houston, Seattle, and the Twin Cities gained 33.4 million light-rail riders between FY2014 and FY2016.

Smaller ridership gains were reported in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco. Los Angeles opened a new light-rail line, increasing service by 30 percent but only getting 4 percent more riders or about 2.7 million trips. However, LA Metro lost a stunning 29 bus riders for every new light-rail rider.

Phoenix also opened a new light-rail line, increasing service by 34 percent but getting only 10 percent more riders or about 1.5 million, meanwhile losing 3.2 million bus riders. Finally, San Francisco didn’t open a new light-rail line but it did increase service by 7.8 percent to get a 5.8 percent increase in ridership.

At the other extreme, Boston lost 18.6 million light-rail trips between FY2014 and FY2018, while St. Louis lost 3.9 million. Sacramento, San Diego, and San Jose all lost between 2 and 3 million trips and Salt Lake City lost 1.2 million. Most other urban areas recorded relatively small changes in ridership.

In short, light-rail ridership growth is clearly dependent on the construction of expensive new lines. In years when no new lines are opened, ridership drops, and in many years when new lines are opened, it drops anyway. Outside of the New York urban area, the same seems to be true of commuter rail. Plus, outside of Seattle, even when new lines are opened, large service increases produce relatively small ridership increases. All of which makes the future of the entire industry increasingly questionable.