America’s transit systems carried 4.7 percent fewer riders in February 2019 than the same month in 2018, according to data released last Friday by the Federal Transit Administration. All major forms of transit saw declines except hybrid rail, which grew because of a new San Francisco Bay Area line that opened in mid-2018. Overall, rail and bus each declined by 4.7 percent.
Ridership dropped in 39 of the nation’s 50 largest urban areas. The biggest declines were in Providence (-15.9%), Milwaukee (-14.3%), Louisville (-13.0%), Detroit (-11.1%), Kansas City (-11.0%), Phoenix (-10.8%), and Philadelphia (-10.2%). Ridership even declined in Seattle (-5.8%), which had been enjoying a sustained period of growth.
The biggest ridership growth was in Richmond (12.6%), testimony in favor of that transit system’s redesign with the help of Jarrett Walker. Ridership also grew significantly in Dallas-Ft. Worth (12.2%), Denver (5.3%), Austin (5.2%), Buffalo (4.5%), Atlanta (2.8%), and Salt Lake (2.3%). Ridership also grew by less than a percent in Houston, Washington, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and San Juan.
The growth in Dallas is all in buses run by Dallas Area Rapid Transit, which the numbers indicate carried 25 percent more riders in February and 29 percent more in January. Nearly all other forms of transit, including buses run by the Fort Worth Transportation Authority, declined. The growth in Dallas bus ridership looks suspicious and may be the result of a different method of counting rather than an actual increase in ridership.
Numerically, the biggest declines were in the New York urban area, which lost more than 15 million riders in February. This was followed by Los Angeles (-3.1 million), Philadelphia (-2.8 million), Chicago (-1.9 million), Boston (-1.6 million), Miami (-1.0 million), and Seattle (-1.0 million).
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As usual, the Antiplanner has posted an enhanced spreadsheet with annual totals in columns HH through HX, percent changes in January and February 2019 versus the same months in 2018 in columns IA through IC, numeric changes in January and February in columns ID and IE, mode totals in rows 2142 through 2149, transit agency totals in rows 2152 through 3151, and totals of the nation’s 200 largest urban areas in rows 3153 through 3353.
These enhancements were made to both the passenger trips (UPT) and vehicle-revenue miles of service (VRM) worksheets allowing for a comparison of changes in service with ridership. Some places, such as San Jose, are clearly in a transit death spiral, with ridership declines leading to service declines leading to more ridership declines. But other places, such as Indianapolis and Virginia Beach, are seeing ridership declines despite significant increases in transit service.
Some of the numbers on the VRM worksheet are questionable, however. Service declines of 40 to 85 percent in some cities indicate incomplete data at the time the FTA released this report. These will likely be updated in future monthly reports.
