Last week, the Antiplanner reported on a study by an MIT economist that found that the New York City subway “was a major disseminator — if not the principal transmission vehicle — of coronavirus infection.” Now, as if in response, a so-called market urbanist named Salim Furth, has published an article blaming the spread of the virus in New York on automobiles.
First, I have to say I am skeptical of the term “market urbanist” because many (though not all) of the people who claim to be one seem to approve of free markets only so long as they achieve the results that they think are right. They seem to be perfectly willing to interfere in the markets to achieve the “right” results if the market won’t produce that result. For example, they complain about single-family zoning but never mention urban-growth boundaries; they complain about subsidies to highways but don’t mention that subsidies to transit are a hundred times greater per passenger mile.
Anyway, Furth presents the following chart to show that automobiles spread the virus. The chart compares coronavirus cases in New York City zip codes as of April 1with the percentage of residents in those zip codes who drove to work in 2014 through 2018.
Furth says this chart shows a “significant” relationship between the virus and auto’s share of commuting. What universe does he live in? I see no relationship at all. If you ignore the three points at the top of the chart around 25 percent auto share, then you might find a slight upward increase in viruses with increasing auto share. But the range is so broad — from 3 to 6 cases per thousand all the way from 30 percent to 60 percent auto share — that any relationship is extremely weak. In fact, I suspect some other factor is responsible for the slightly lower rates below 20 percent. Add the three points at the top of the chart and a correlation calculation might just find a negative relationship between auto shares and the virus.
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Furth then presents a second figure showing virus cases from April 1 to April 16 against auto’s share. Here a weak correlation is visible, but note that the highest number of cases in the under 10 percent share range is only slightly less than the highest number in the 30 to 50 percent range. Above 50 percent, only one point is significantly higher than the under-10-percent high.
Everyone knows that correlation doesn’t equal causation. Furth has found a very weak correlation and immediate concludes that it shows causation. As with the first chart, I suspect the low rates in the under-10-percent range are due to some other cause.
Jeffrey Harris, the MIT economist who wrote the study linking coronavirus to the subways, compared actual subway usage during the weeks of the virus. With these data, he was able to explain why the virus hit Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Queens harder than Manhattan even though their densities are lower. In contrast, Furth compared virus cases with the average share of auto commuting between 2014 and 2018. Actual driving patterns during the weeks of the pandemic were probably much different.
To settle the issue, someone needs to do a multivariate analysis comparing both actual driving and actual transit usage with actual cases of COVID-19. Until that happens, I find Harris’ analysis to be much more persuasive than Furth’s.
NEITHER.
Cultural behavior is what influenced the course of the disease.
I know the culture, and when one of the culprits in the list of underlying conditions was identified as diabetes, I was further convinced that obesity (a precursor to Type 2 diabetes) in so many black and white people is a major part of the problem. Fried and fatty foods are a staple of Southern cooking. Even though I was born well past the time when my ancestors were compelled to wean themselves off it, they were embedded in the culture. Why bring this up?
fighting the disease by pointing out aspects of “culture” that are destructive will be deemed by progressives of all ethnicities a taboo subject. Any attempts to reveal to Americans that cultural habits could be killing them will be turned back on the hapless investigators as evidence of their racism and lack of understanding.
The victimhood scam, perpetrated by progressive leftists must be protected at all costs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the race-baiting Democrat , has already expressed the ridiculous notion that even to suggest that blacks are doing something contrary to their well-being is racist.
So standing up for hygiene as a cultural practice is taboo………..just toss out the masks
Anyone with half a brain can see that diseases will spread easier on trains and buses used by hundreds of different people in a day than in private automobiles that are used by one person in a day. The fact that people are trying to deny the obvious just shows how much of a cult public transit has become.