State transportation issues during and after the pandemic will be the topic of an on-line forum next Wednesday, February 17. The Antiplanner will join several other experts, including Robert Poole, Baruch Feigenbaum, Marc Scribner, Wendell Cox, and Mariya Frost, to discuss highway, transit, and similar issues from noon to 1:30 pm Pacific Time (3:00 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Time).
The forum is aimed at state policy think tanks, legislative staff, and other people who deal with state transportation issues agencies, budgets, and policies. Presentations will be based on Transportation and COVID-19, a group of articles published in December. More information and event registration are available from the Washington Policy Center.
Speaking of seminars, University of Oxford Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, noted expert on megaprojects, is holding an on-line class on Reference Class Forecasting. The projected cost of constructing the typical light-rail line rises by 40 to 50 percent between the initial cost estimate and project approval. The actual cost of constructing it rises another 40 to 50 percent between project approval and project completion.
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As a result, the actual cost is generally double or more the initial projection. One way to deal with this problem is to assume that the actual cost will be double the initial projection, a practice known as Reference Class Forecasting. If done right, Reference Class Forecasting produces far more accurate cost estimates as well as estimates of project benefits and the time it will take to complete the project.
If you live in an urban area that is considering or planning rail transit or other megaprojects, then the planners in your city or region need to know more about Reference Class Forecasting. The best way to learn would be from a seminar offered by one of the world’s experts, Bent Flyvbjerg, of the University of Oxford. He is offering such a seminar beginning March 24. Unfortunately, the cost is a little high for the average transportation activist, but government planners should take the course.
So because they’re germaphobic they’re gonna host online forums to advocate for transit that requires packing people like sardines.
Construction of America’s first transcontinental railroad took about six years. Japan’s Tokyo-to-Osaka HSR line took, Six years.
The idea that it will take more than 20-30 years to introduce a new transportation technology, San Fran to LA isn’t scheduled to start until at least 2033 minimum, 2040 if delays persist.
Y’ll will have spent 25-30 years working to save two hours. There are 8,766 hours in a year, assuming you work 6-8 hours per week day, Subtract holidays, with a work crew of 5000, Still gives you 300 MILLION man-hours to build a train. Hoover dam was built in 1/6th the time.
Best of luck