Today the Cato Institute is publishing a new report on high-speed rail. In consideration of the work that went into that report (which is partly based on past Antiplanner policy briefs), I am taking this week off of my usual Tuesday policy brief.
Honolulu buses could easily move the number of passengers likely to ride the train, for far less money. Photo by 123TheBusHonolulu6969.
Instead, behold the latest revelations about the Honolulu rail transit line, which is currently under construction. Originally projected to cost less than $3 billion, the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transit (HART) now admits that it is expected to cost $11.3 billion, or “about $12 billion” when finance charges are included. This is after years of denying that the cost would rise above $10 billion.
The line was supposed to open in January of last year. Now it is projected to not open before March — of 2031! “At the risk of being shot by the public and other stakeholders, we are actually estimating maybe 2031 that everything is complete,” said HART CEO Lori Kahikina (emphasis added). HART is at least $3 billion short of the funds needed to complete the line so even that date may be optimistic.
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“I think the previous numbers were very aggressive and maybe risks weren’t calculated in that number,” says Kahikina in one of the biggest understatements of the year. On top of this, she noted, HART has “multiple layer of consultants [and] contractors.” As previously described in the Antiplanner, HART allowed consultants to run the show and make hundreds of design changes that added to the cost (and their fees).
At this late date, HART still doesn’t even have all the right-of-way it needs to finish the line. Once done, it doesn’t know where it is going to get the electricity needed to power the line. As of 2019, 84 percent of Hawaii’s energy comes from burning imported fossil fuels. Since Honolulu is one of the few cities that fills enough seats on its transit buses that they emit fewer greenhouse gases per passenger-mile than the average car, this means HART’s rail line will probably become a net greenhouse-gas emitter.
Much of the construction of the ugly elevated rail line in the outskirts of Honolulu is already done, but the last four miles into the heart of Honolulu — a shopping area known as the Ala Moana Center — is the problem. Bids submitted to build this line were 70 percent higher than HART projected. It didn’t matter because HART didn’t have the money to build it even at the lower cost.
Some people think HART should just stop construction four miles short of Ala Moana, but Federal Transit Administration funding is conditional on finishing the line. “We have to make it to Ala Moana” to get the last $800 million in FTA money, argues Kahikina, adding that the shortened line would be “a train to nowhere.” But, train to nowhere or not, it would be less expensive for Hawaiian taxpayers to give up on the last four miles and just admit this entire project is a failure.
12 Billion dollars, thats enough to buy every Hawaiian household a new Tesla Model 3.
I don’t know what they’re smoking. Oahu isn’t exactly a big island it’s roughly 30×20 miles. Going out on a limb as a kid I had (still have) a fascination with Monorails and wondered if Oahu really wanted to propose a transit they could have built a monorail.
For one
– Using straddle beams, derailment is virtually impossible.
– It’s elevated, accidents with surface traffic and pedestrians are impossible
– Translates to less system down time, less liability suits and most importantly, a safer public. Street rail systems with grade crossings (light rail, trams, commuter rail or trollies) can’t approach this level of safety since foolhardy people often try to beat the speeding train at the crossing with disastrous results. Also underground rail is prohibitively expensive (tunneling through Hawaiian solid basalt) Running on rubber tires makes monorails relatively quiet compared to the loud clickety clack of metal on metal.
Polls show monorails are the most aesthetically pleasing of all elevated rail systems. Their sleek design blends in with modern urban environments. But if need be, the pylons and track; which made of precast concrete can be made to accommodate whatever architectural style the system is meant to coexist with, including more classical ones.
Quick construction time results in less disruption to the surrounding environments, whether business or residential. Building heavy rail in the city means rerouting cables/lines and pipes, digging and businesses forfeiting revenue for the disruption caused by years of construction, light rail is no different. Customers can’t access their establishments during the long period of construction. Entire streets and underground utilities must be rebuilt to put in light rail. During light rail construction, there are always businesses that go under because customers can’t get to them. Simply put…dig a hole in the middle of the night, drop in a pre-built support pylon, truck in the track which was manufactured offsite, lift into place! Monorail beamway can be installed far faster than the alternatives. The Las Vegas Mono only took Seven months to build (granted LV Monorail isn’t exactly financially good, but when Casinos offer it’s own alternative), 2.9 Miles in 7 months. Contractors and rail consultants love heavy rail. It keeps them busy for years and brings in the big bucks. You pay for it Mr. Taxpayer. As if that isn’t enough, operational costs of heavy rail are so high that Mr. Taxpayer (you again) have to subsidize it heavily for as long as it operates. Being electrically driven by a power provided from the rail, monorails don’t require the spider web of above ground power lines.
Steel wheels on steel rail grind and wear. Therefore, both wheels and rail require far more care than monorail. This alone makes cost efficient impossible with heavy rail. Frequent vehicle breakdowns during operation also make heavy rail much less reliable than monorail. Monorails regularly operate amazingly at over 90% reliability. No other form of transit can touch that number. The rubber tires get little wear running on smooth guideways. Typically, each load tire gets over 100,000 miles of travel before being replaced and changing it’s tires is as simple as…..changing a tire.
Now out of context monorail is too whimsical, Simply offering superior bus service would help to alleviate Oahu’s traffic concerns. One of the rare instances where BRT and dedicated lanes to buses may actually serve a purpose. Asian and South American Megacities like Tokyo, Sao Paulo are building monorail, because conventional rail is ridiculously expensive to tear up streets and years of infrastructure building;