When compared with the previous year, vehicle-miles of driving in February 2021 dropped by 12.1 percent, a slight dip from January which was only 11.3 percent lower than in 2020. Data released yesterday by the Federal Highway Administration indicate that changes by state ranged from -2.4 percent in Wyoming to -20.4 percent in Delaware. Driving in Texas and Oklahoma both were around 19 percent below 2020 levels while driving in California was down only 7 percent.
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Both driving and transit declined slightly in February while both air travel and Amtrak grew slightly. This could be coincidence or it could mean that intercity travel is growing while local travel is still inhibited by the pandemic. This is affirmed by TSA data showing that air travel in March had recovered to 53 percent of 2019 levels, a major gain considering February air travel was only 40 percent of 2020 and 43 percent of 2019 numbers. Amtrak is not likely to see similar gains.
Does it seem likely that they are missing some chunk of driving that’s occuring but not being caught in by their means of estimating? For example, electric cars not buying gallons of gas? Or people driving less because they’re having DoorDash, Amazon and Instacart deliver stuff at home and doing the driving for them?
Texas driving was down due to the severe freeze and related shutdowns. In Dallas-Fort Worth, January driving was down 7% in January but 17% in February.
Traffic should be back up in March. But comparisons will need to be to 2019 since March 2020 was affected by Covid.