An estimated 38,680 people died in motor vehicle traffic accidents in 2020, a 7 percent increase from 2019, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). This is despite the fact that Americans drove 13 percent fewer miles in 2020 than they did in 2019. One caveat: the 2020 numbers are only preliminary based on a “statistical projection.”
The reported increase in fatalities pushed fatality rates up to 13.7 deaths per billion vehicle-miles traveled in 2020 and 1.45 in the last nine months of 2020, the highest rate since 2004. Fatality rates had declined to just 10.8 per billion miles in 2014, then hovered between 11 and 12 for the next five years.
The 2008 financial crisis led to a 1 to 2 percent annual decline in driving in 2008 and 2009, which resulted in a nearly 10 percent annual decline in fatalities. The pandemic led to a 13 percent decline in driving, yet fatalities increased. What was the difference between these two events that one made highways safer and the other made them more dangerous?
To help answer this question, NHTSA published a more detailed report finding that the biggest increases in fatalities were on urban interstates (15%), at night (11%), and among younger age classes (16-24 up 15%, 25-34 up 18%, 35-44 up 14%, but other age classes up 5% or less). Fatalities among blacks increased 23 percent but among whites increased by only 4 percent.
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One possible explanation for the sharp increase in fatality rates that is indirectly explored in this companion NHTSA report is that hospitals were so overwhelmed with COVID patients that they were unable to save as many motor vehicle accident victims. The report finds, however, that crashes were significantly more severe after April 1, 2020, so that the percentage of people not likely to survive from a crash doubled in April and early May and remained much higher than in 2019 for the rest of the year.
Instead, it seems that people engaged in significantly more risky behavior after the onset of the coronavirus. Fatalities among people not wearing seatbelts were up 15 percent. Alcohol-related fatalities increased by 9 percent and speeding-related fatalities were up 11 percent. However, speeding-related fatalities declined in New England, the Northwest, and California, perhaps because lockdowns were tighter in those regions. Unfortunately, NHTSA hasn’t yet published a region-by-region or state-by-state breakdown in fatalities by other measures. NHTSA also admits that it doesn’t have reliable data to show whether texting or other distracted driving led to more accidents.
We have a mental image of people responding to the pandemic by hunkering down in their homes. But it appears that at least some people spent the pandemic doing a lot of joy-riding, feeling safe from communicable diseases in their private vehicles. That didn’t necessarily keep them safe from their own or other drivers’ bad behavior.
Black road deaths exploded in June along with big city riots. That month 743 black people were killed in traffic fatalities, up from 478 in June 2019, a 55 percent increase.
There’s an interesting chart in this one called “Percentage Change in Fatalities in Every Quarter Compared to the Fatalities in the Same Quarter During the Previous Year” that goes back to the late 70s. Historically this is pretty big swing up.
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813115
Good chart. Second quarter 2020 fatality rate was up 35% vs. 2019 based on miles traveled.
Low slung sedans often strike a pedestrrians legs
HIGH center SUV’s strike the pedestians torso.
The rise of pedestrian deaths is no coincidence. Proliferation of SUV’s.
https://www.statista.com/graphic/1/199980/us-truck-sales-since-1951.jpg
Another reason is lapse enforcement of traffic in the US. In US you can get a DUI and keep your license.
In recent news Irish actorr faced DUI charge had his license suspended for 6 MONTHS.
US it’s a 1000 dollar fine.
EU by 2022 will require electronic locking speed limiters on all cars in cities by 2022. Meanwhile in US, we’ll spend tens of billions to pay 500,000 law enforcement officers to mildly enforce our nations traffic laws. Since cops make fortunes on fees/fines/tickets, they don’t care.
What you’re gonna see in California in the future is the Fee/Fine/Tax approach. Besides increasing taxes, we’ll see increase in fees or fees instituted where there were none. But most of all more fines and the police across the state will the massive ticket dispensers. Why because the police are no different than any other public agency, they have shrinking budgets but huge financial liabilities to pay for and they don’t wanna make cuts. In short they have pensions and they’re broke, so they’ll be in the business of writing tickets rather than battling crime. An illegal alien who dumps a refrigerator in a pond is a losing issue, cause you gotta pay for translator, immigration services, gotta pay to clean up the dumping so it’s a losing issue. But a yuppie in a Land Rover with a starbucks non recyclable cup and texting…is a money maker.
I wonder what role distracted driving played in the increase. So many people looking down at their crotches while driving and swerving all over the road. Large trucks, too. It’s an epidemic.
here in California, i concur. distraction at the wheel, doped drivers (alcohol, pot, and micro-meth-ing) along with so so many cars everywhere leave no room for error
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Low slung sedans often strike a pedestrrians legs
HIGH center SUV’s strike the pedestians torso.
The rise of pedestrian deaths is no coincidence. Proliferation of SUV’s.
”
~Lazy Reader,
That’s something often claimed. Yet today depsite all the data we have no one has demonstrated that in the actual occurances. If the issue is not SPEED nor WEIGHT, if the primary issue is SHAPE then we should be able to see that in the data. There are some minivans + others that have a similar weight to other SUVs and with a lower nose.
Until it’s demonstrated in the data, we should stick with Occam’s razor —> most cars are SUVs, ergo, most traffic deaths will involve SUVS.
We can’t say how much, if any, the shape makes compared to other factors.
10 of the top 12 and 15 of the top 20 selling vehicles in the US last year were SUVs. They’re everywhere.
https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/best-selling-cars-suvs-pickups-2020/
We should have a more thoughtful, data driven approach to figuring out why it’s occurring. One of the things I’ve seen in maps of pedestrian deaths in my town is that most are on big ass STROADS w/ commercial concentrations with residential near by. As poverty spreads in the burbs, one possible contribution is that there are more pedestrians than years ago crossing busy roads / highways w/ high speed limits ( 45, 50, 55, 60 ) and thus more accidents and deaths.
The higher the velocity, the greater the mass, I’d expect front end design to exponentially matter less and less. Momentum can be nasty when it comes to the fragile human body.
stroads are a big problem. urban design is anti-human
Note how this subcompact car, with that low hood, at just 35mph sends this dummy tumbling 20 feet; hit so hard that the dummies hat flys off his head and lands on the back of the car.
Despite the low hood, nothing about it indicates that someone is _lifted_ onto the hood and has a “safer” impact. It is not proof that such a thing doesn’t make a difference. Just saying that the higher the speed involved, the less likely design makes a difference. We should be able to see this in the data.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP6Whgp1GTA
The USA has much higher accident rates per distance than the UK. There are many reasons, but two are:
The USA uses high speed signalised junctions, whereas the UK uses roundabouts. The AASHTO road safety manual shows that signals have much higher accident and fatality rates than roundabouts.
The USA uses a different pedestrian system, with right turning cars yielding to pedestrians, in principle. In the UK, pedestrians get their own protected signal phase. A leading pedestrian interval (LPI) helps, but is no solution. In the Middle East, channelised right turn lanes are an alternative solution.