Costs Rise, But by How Much?

The cost of electrifying commuter trains between San Francisco and San Jose has gone up to $2.44 billion, according to Caltrain, which runs the trains. What’s interesting is that Caltrain says this is an increase of $462 million over the “initial estimate.” That would make the initial estimate $1.98 billion.

A new Caltrain electric-powered passenger car being delivered to California. As part of electrification, the entire fleet of locomotives and passenger cars must be replaced. Photo by Martijn van Exel.

However, I have a 2015 document from the Federal Transit Administration that puts the cost at $1.758 billion, or $222 million less than the supposed “initial estimate.” This estimate is in “year-of-expenditure” dollars, meaning it is adjusted for inflation. It’s funny how initial estimates creep up over time to make it seem like the cost overruns aren’t as great as they really are.

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This was a project that didn’t need to be done. Caltrain claimed that electrified trains would accelerate a little faster, allowing them to speed the schedules and run more trains per day, which they thought would attract more riders. But officially, no new riders were projected from the project. In fact, it was a hidden subsidy to California high-speed rail, which was expected to share Caltrain tracks until it could build its own. Of course, now it appears that California high-speed rail will never get close to San Jose, which means it will never share the tracks.

Meanwhile, the pandemic has held October 2021 Caltrain ridership down by more than 80 percent from 2019 numbers. Caltrain’s customer base — Silicon Valley and financial district workers — are just the kind of people who are likely to continue working at home after pandemic restrictions are lifted. This makes it even more likely that all of this money is being spent for nothing.