The media treat Americans to a constant drumbeat of how much better European passenger trains are and why we need to spend hundreds of billions or trillions improving our train system. The latest is a report that overnight trains are proving they can replace air travel by “play[ing] an important niche role on long-distance routes of between 500 and 1,000 miles.”
A look at the actual data reveal that, despite huge government subsidies to European passenger trains, rail was barely holding its own before the pandemic and has drastically declined since the pandemic. Between 2012 and 2019, the share of passenger travel carried by airlines grew from 11.6 to 15.0 percent while the share carried by trains grew only from 6.7 to 6.8 percent. Most of the growth of rail travel was at the expense of bus travel, which declined from 9.1 to 8.1 percent. Auto travel from 72.3 to 69.8 mostly because of low-cost airlines.
The pandemic drastically changed everything and not in favor of rail travel, which fell to 5.6 percent. Bus and air travel also shrank, while the big winner was auto travel, which grew to nearly 80 percent.
Time will tell for sure, but if the U.S. is any guide, auto travel has already fully recovered from the pandemic and air travel will recover soon. Intercity rail travel might recover, but with less certainty than air travel. Bus travel will lose no matter what else gains.
All the European spending on money-losing passenger trains has done little other than hurt money-making bus operations. Americans who want to spend more on Amtrak or high-speed rail will do little more than repeat Europe’s mistakes.
Regardless Air travel’s ability to be “Green’
Air travel is powered predominantly by jet fuel.
THere are no electric planes (At least no useful models) and no electric airliner will ever emerge, because the battery weighs 4x more than the weight of the plane……..
No “Diesel” planes
It’s entirely powered by refined kerosene.
To move the same gram One foot of distance, a 737 uses 1200x more energy to move the same unit of mass the same distance as a diesel train. Globally the aviation industry spent 188 BILLION dollars on fuel in 2019; 23% of their operating expenses.
But airline have advantage, whatever New airliners they develop, will use the same infrastructure as planes before thus not need new ones.
https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/newscms/2017_16/1971576/620631main_avcpscformationfinal_original_full.jpg
Anyone whoever watched BBC top gear. In the Clarkson era
The guys attempt to make train travel cheaper, faster and more interesting by replacing the conventional carriages and locomotive with a series of caravans attached to a specially modified car. It’s either the world’s most ingenious idea or the prelude to the world’s biggest accident.
Its….It’s….. not a terrible idea.
To quote a genius, How hard can it be.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mkpCzp0CmjY
Concerning news from Hoboken, NJ: billions of miles driven per year declines by an unknown amount after car-unfriendly policies are forced on the populace:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-11-20/this-new-jersey-mayor-ended-traffic-deaths-with-a-vision-zero-plan
“The new Paris métro, formally titled Grand Paris Express (GPE), will more than double the territory encircling France’s capital city with over 120 miles of new tracks, four new underground lines and 68 new metro stations.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferleighparker/2023/11/22/the-new-paris-mtro-is-coming-and-its-a-very-big-deal/?sh=6643c1183184