The Antiplanner called Minnesota’s Northstar commuter train a “flop” in 2016. It took the pandemic to do it, but it looks like the state has finally agreed and is now considering plans to shut the line down.
Minnesota’s commuter train was a failure before the pandemic and an even bigger failure after. Photo by Jerry Huddleston.
The line, which cost more than $300 million to start up, was supposed to carry 4,100 riders per weekday, which seems absurdly small for the price. Yet it peaked in 2017 at just 2,800 riders and fell to 2,700 riders in 2019. Since the pandemic, it hasn’t recovered to more than about a sixth of that. The state estimates that the costs of running this service would fall from $12 million a year to $2 million a year if it replaced the trains with buses. In 2023, fares covered less than $325,000 of that $12 million in operating costs.
While the Federal Transit Administration has a policy of demanding a refund of the depreciated value of any portion of rail projects paid for by the feds, a report by the state suggests that this could be done with real estate that had been purchased as part of the project. While the state would have to pay the FTA about $30 million to $35 million, if the real estate has appreciated in the meantime, that would cover much of the cost. Of course, Congress could always waive that cost, which would make more sense than continuing to subsidize the trains.
Meanwhile, Amtrak is hoping Minnesota will fund more passenger trains between Chicago and the Twin Cities plus trains from the Twin Cities to Duluth. Before state legislators seriously consider doing so, they should ask whether buses can provide the same service and whether they are already doing so without any government subsidies.
