A new census of downtown Portland employers reveals that, for the first time since the annual census began in 2001, the number of downtown workers taking transit to work exceeded the number driving in 2009. This isn’t because the number taking transit to work increased — it declined by 6 percent — but because the number biking and walking to work grew by 170 percent.
You can look at all the census data for 2001 through 2006 in the 2006 report. The 2007, 2008, and 2008 reports contain commuting data only for those years. These data were collected by the Portland Business Alliance.
The increase in biking and walking to work accounts for almost 90 percent of the reduction in driving to work, and some might say this is a victory for Portland planners. But a comparison of the downtown census data with U.S. census data for the city of Portland and Portland urban area in 2000 and 2008 reveal some problems. (Note: The U.S. Census did not report commuting data in its 2001 survey, and the 2009 survey data are not out yet, so I am using 2000 and 2008 to compare with the downtown census’ 2001 and 2009 data.)
First, the U.S. Census data reveal that, from 2000 to 2008, the Portland area gained well over 100,000 new jobs, and the city of Portland itself gained more than 20,000 new jobs. Yet downtown lost nearly 3,400 jobs from 2001 to 2009, prompting discouraging headlines in business journals.
Second, despite opening two new light-rail lines and the streetcar line, all of which serve downtown, the number of downtown employees taking transit to work declined by 6 percent, or around 2,400, between 2001 and 2009. This is critical because more than half of all transit commuters in the Portland area are downtown workers. The absolute number of people who took transit to work in the Portland area declined from 2000 to 2007, largely because of the movement of jobs to the suburbs. While high gas prices helped the number recover in 2008, this is likely to be temporary.
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In other words, just like in other urban areas, Portland-area suburban jobs are growing much faster than urban jobs. Just like in other urban areas, downtown Portland jobs are declining. But Portland does seem to have a phenomenal increase in the number of people walking and cycling to work. What accounts for that?
There are some hints in the downtown census data. In 2001, 6 percent of downtown workers lived downtown, 38 percent lived elsewhere in the city of Portland, meaning 56 percent lived in the suburbs. By 2009, 9 percent lived downtown and 44 percent elsewhere in the city of Portland, meaning only 47 percent lived in the suburbs. On average, then, downtown workers lived closer to their jobs in 2009 than in 2001. Encouraging people to live closer to their jobs is an important component of smart growth.
But I think this is actually an accidental result of Portland land-use policies. High housing prices pushed families with children to the suburbs — census data show the percentage of Portland residents under the age of 20 declined slightly between 2000 and 2008. Also, while the median age of Portland workers is more than 40, the median age of those who walk to work is 35 and those who bicycle is 34.
Portland has concentrated young, childless commuters in the city center, which has resulted in more walking and cycling to work. But, between 2000 and 2008, the number of Portland-area commuters who drive to work still grew by more than the total number of walking/cycling commuters. At best, you can say this indicates mixed results for Portland planners.
Meanwhile, Portland wants to spend $450 million on a streetcar line to the wealthy suburb of Lake Oswego. That is going to do absolutely nothing about the general movement of jobs to the suburbs. But the added tax burden required to pay for the line, even if the city manages to persuade Congress to cover more than half the cost, will probably drive more jobs to the suburbs.
The Antiplanner wrote:
> Meanwhile, Portland wants to spend $450 million on a streetcar
> line to the wealthy suburb of Lake Oswego. That is going to
> do absolutely nothing about the general movement of jobs
> to the suburbs.
Agreed.
> But the added tax burden required to pay for the line,
> even if the city manages to persuade Congress to cover
> more than half the cost, will probably drive more jobs
> to the suburbs.
Perhaps more to the point, with some (small) exceptions, the federal government only pays for a portion of capital costs of new rail transit projects, and none of the operating losses that inevitably result when new rail lines are built.
I have heard that the streetcar line to Lake O. is actually slower than a bus or rapid bus option, and is only foretasted to be faster if the adjacent road gets too congested in the near future. Admittedly the road is congested at times and can only get worse, and it seems very unfeasible for widening given its location.
I am too lazy to validate this, but it’s one thing to spend 480 million on a transit line, but another entirely to spend it on a transit service that is not faster.
“Is Portland’s Plan Working?”
After sifting through all the links,I’d have to say yes for the most part.
Is Portland’s Plan Perfect?
Nope. Possibly too much money spent on rail lines, but what a mode split for a great and vibrant American city.
Great and vibrant? Ha. Oregon and Portland are have some of the highest unemployment rates in the nation. It’s also one of the highest for being stuck at lower wages when you do find a job. Houston of all places has a far better market for recent college grads. Portland’s sinking. So is Oregon. Head for the lifeboats.
This argument would be devastating if true. As it is no, it is merely amusing.
DS
Oh, and as for Portland being such a wonderful place, don’t forget that Oregon has recently become the state with the highest homeless rate, which newspapers blame on “spiraling unemployment and inability to pay rent”. Portland’s homeless numbers in Portland went from 3,294 in 2008 to 8,561 in 2009. In the last year, the amount of homeless again increased.
Then there’s Portland’s and Oregon’s budget and school situation. A half-a-billion-dollar shortfall is to be made up by cutting a quarter billion dollars from education. In 2007-2008, Oregon ranked 49 in the nation for class size, and with the recent budget issues, that should sink to 50 very soon. No hope for key federal funding either; “Oregon’s application for $200 million of federal ‘Race to the Top’ education innovation funding was graded 7th worst among the 40 states that applied.”
I’d say kids should just drop out and find jobs, but unfortunately, Oregon ranks 47th in job growth and in the top 15 for unemployment.
Portland. So Great. So Vibrant.
Why don’t the comical Portland haydurz move the F away if they hate it so much?
For the same reason they can’t get their unemployment statistics right, or hope for federal funding in one breath and harrumph about gummint the next?
DS
Dan said: Why don’t the comical Portland haydurz move the F away if they hate it so much?
Similar question for you, Dannyboy: Why don’t the comical Antiplanner haydurz (god, you are so cool, Dan, using such hip street spelling) stay the F away from the site if they hate it so much?
But in all seriousness, I am moving. After three consecutive years getting laid off, and ten years of trying to land a decent paying job, I’m out of here in seven days. For a 60% pay increase no less.
Oregon and Portland are sinking. I’m getting out. And I’m suggesting other Oregonians do the same.
And Dan, you’re showing your low reading comprehension by equating the phrase “no hope” with “hoping for”; that passage was designed to highlight the incompetence in O’s DOE.
As for the unemployment “stats”, I didn’t use any. I simply said that Oregon is in the top 15 states for unemployment rates. It is in the top 15; to be more specific, it is number eight. You’re grasping at straws here Dannyboy.
Oh, more reasons to abandon ship: “Oregon now ranks 32nd among the states in per capita personal income, and Oregonians earn slightly more than 90 percent of the national average of the same measurement. These are the lowest figures for Oregon since the federal government started keeping the measurement — about the same time the stock market crashed in 1929.”
And Oregon is tied with Hawaii for the highest state income tax rate in the nation.
Portland. Oregon. So Great. So Vibrant.
Dan is so cool. He can mispel as well as tenagers! LOL and ROFL COOOL DANNY!!!!! YOU ARE MY BFF!!!!!!!
Oregon and Portland are have some of the highest unemployment rates in the nation.
Yes, PDX was mentioned. Hand-flapping notwithstanding,
Huh.
City and state levels are about the same.
Sounds like state-level policy outcomes to me (PDX nowhere near the top, BTW).
Nonetheless, OR rate is quite high. And we should be using U3-U6 rates as well.
DS
Comparing apples and oranges. Chico, a small college town, the the same list as Portland?
Add a caveat: one of the highest unemployment rates for a metro area of its size. For large metro areas, it’s the 13th worst. Last year, in the same category, it was the 10th worst. In 2001, it had the worst unemployment in the nation and in 2002, 2003, and 2004, it had the second worst rate. It has been consistently in the top ten and only recently (2008) flirted with dropping out of the top 20.
So yes, Portland has historically had one of the highest unemployment rates for a metro area with a population over one million.
I agree that U6 rates should be used.
Let me just say that when I practiced in WA, I was intrigued but not convinced by the arguments made by OR at the joint OR-WA planning conferences/seminars/workshops/etc… I’m a bottom-up guy so maybe I’m biased. I also see that PDX has much fewer collidge grads than other places with good weather on the west coast ( viz. Sacto, which is too f’n hot) , which may be a function of state policy, but this hole surely drives the unemployment rate.
DS
Nah. Education alone doesn’t explain it. If you look in the city limits of Poorland and compare it to the number residing in the city limits of Denver, you see that Poorland has a higher percentage of BAs and graduate degrees. They both have exactly the same median wage. However, Denver’s unemployment rate is several points lower. Why is that? College degrees alone don’t explain it. Neither can beer as both cities are equally hopped. (This is anecdotal evidence, obviously, but I have taken a large sampling as I have visited over 50 breweries in Oregon and Colorado.)
Maybe it’s the low wage that warrants attention. Denver’s low wage is nearly $1 less than Portland’s. Could it be that lower wages=more employment?
Plus Portland’s suburbs are apparently filled with a bunch of uneducated parasites who either don’t pay any taxes or don’t pay enough taxes to compensate for their auto-centric lifestyles. Maybe they’re draining away Portland’s lifeblood.
What ever it is or are, it ain’t great. This has long been a city for Fugitives and Refugees. Tom Petty taught me that I don’t have to live like a refugee.
I’m out.
Peace.
“Houston of all places has a far better market for recent college grads.”
Despite the high violent crime rate, high property taxes, poor education system, low quality of life ratings, heinous weather, cancer clusters, and oder, your right. Houston is great!
bennett said:
“Despite the high violent crime rate, high property taxes, poor education system, low quality of life ratings, heinous weather, cancer clusters, and oder [sic], your [sic] right. Houston is great!”
I never said Houston is a great city.
I simply related the news that Houston is “A Mecca for College Grads” and that a “Bloomberg Businessweek poll finds it leads U.S. cities in job postings, affordability, and pay”.
Criticize the poll if you will, but please don’t put words in my posts.
Frank,
You implied that Portland is a worse place to be compared to Houston. I didn’t put words into anything, so don’t be indigent.
When I say Portland is vibrant, I include other variables than just employment and salaries of college grads. In fact, you prove my point in 13. Ask yourself why such a high proportion of college grads choose to live in Portland despite the fact they could make more money elsewhere? The answer to that question is why I consider Portland vibrant.
No implication, just a statement of fact: “Houston of all places has a far better market for recent college grads.” For recent college grads seeking a job so they can pay off their tens of thousands in student loans, it would be easier in Houston to gain employment than in Portland.
So, I’ve been speaking of Portland’s economic drawbacks, which I feel are huge and keep it from being, in my opinion, vibrant.
Portland is a beautiful city close to beautiful places and brews lots of great beer.
But if you can’t afford to visit the beautiful places or drink the tasty beer because you can’t find work and are on unemployment, then it sucks. I guess for all those hispters with trust funds and rich parents, it must be a hoot and a holler.
But for many people, Portland ain’t no picnic.
“But for many people, Portland ain’t no picnic.”
This statement applies to almost every city. If life aint easy, it’s hard. Brilliant!
bennett said:
“But for many people, Portland ain’t no picnic.â€
This statement applies to almost every city. If life aint [sic] easy, it’s hard. Brilliant!
Well let me spell it out in no uncertain terms in a statement that doesn’t apply to almost every city. Portland has one of the highest unemployment rates, suicide rates, divorce rates, days without sun, and use of antidepressants of any city of its size in America.
‘Nuff said.